France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Saint-Etienne
Nice 		29.9%
44.1%		26.0%
+570
-185
+530
-185
1.15
1.45		2.60
o2½-112
u2½-107
o2½-120
u2½+100
Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lorient
Lille		10.5%
71.6%		17.9%
+1125
-353
+1100
-390
0
3		-0.28362-0.27863-0.33381
Nice
Rennes		25.5%
49.0%		25.5%
+216
+145
+230
+135
0
2		-0.92788-0.90429-0.71355
Reims
Monaco		32.2%
39.0%		28.8%
+390
-143
+385
-160
3
1		-1.61944-1.62913-1.13283
Strasbourg
Marseille		24.6%
48.6%		26.8%
+470
-155
+475
-165
1
1		-1.43784-1.41256-1.31531
Monaco
Toulouse		77.5%
8.2%		14.3%
-113
+305
-120
+315
2
1		-0.65500-0.65452-0.25506
Lille
Strasbourg		51.7%
22.9%		25.4%
+110
+288
+105
+275
1
2		-1.37528-1.36920-1.47451
Le Havre
Reims		13.7%
62.2%		24.0%
+400
-129
+385
-140
0
1		-0.59671-0.58709-0.47409
Marseille
Montpellier		37.9%
32.4%		29.6%
-104
+316
-105
+290
1
1		-1.32058-1.31602-1.21655
Nantes
Lyon		15.7%
62.9%		21.4%
+345
-111
+350
-130
0
1		-0.66316-0.61665-0.46416
Lorient
Brest		28.0%
44.1%		27.9%
+460
-140
+440
-145
0
4		-0.56717-0.57426-0.81916
Rennes
Toulouse		73.8%
8.9%		17.3%
+127
+240
+120
+220
0
0		-1.27293-1.30420-1.75377
Strasbourg
Lorient		44.2%
27.7%		28.1%
+215
+153
+210
+140
2
1		-1.16761-1.18185-0.81604
Brest
Nantes		28.8%
43.2%		27.9%
+180
+180
+175
+175
2
0		-1.05604-1.06025-1.24396
Reims
Lens		52.3%
20.1%		27.6%
+221
+143
+230
+135
0
2		-0.90493-0.88114-1.60385
Lyon
Monaco		48.1%
27.4%		24.5%
+360
-126
+355
-125
1
0		-1.54468-1.53127-0.73141
Marseille
Lorient		53.4%
21.0%		25.6%
-120
+398
-130
+375
4
2		-0.61550-0.61906-0.62691
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.