France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Marseille
Nantes 		44.9%
27.1%		28.0%
-155
+420

1.32
0.95		2.27
o2¾-120
u3-122

Lorient
Paris Saint-Germain 		2.5%
90.6%		6.9%
+900
-405

0.50
3.46		3.96
o3½-104
u3½-115

Monaco
Metz 		42.9%
30.5%		26.6%
-231
+600

1.39
1.13		2.52
o3½+100
u3½-120

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Monaco
Nantes		39.7%
33.2%		27.1%
-132
+370
-140
+375
5
3		-0.59640-0.58193-0.92392
Rennes
Toulouse		73.8%
8.9%		17.3%
+292
-102
+284
+100
2
2		-1.32415-1.31841-1.75377
Angers
Marseille		19.7%
56.4%		23.9%
+1200
-427
+1150
-430
2
2		-1.94428-1.94191-1.43255
Paris Saint-Germain
Lorient		88.7%
3.1%		8.1%
-352
+870
-400
+950
1
1		-1.90690-1.93919-2.50764
Lille
Nice		60.3%
18.1%		21.5%
-112
+294
-110
+275
0
2		-1.40646-1.37074-1.70722
Strasbourg
Lyon		18.8%
58.1%		23.0%
+290
-105
+300
-105
1
2		-0.70370-0.69750-0.54230
Lorient
Angers		26.7%
46.3%		26.9%
+186
+182
+180
+180
0
2		-1.07046-1.06088-0.76945
Nice
Rennes		25.5%
49.0%		25.5%
+268
+107
+240
+110
2
1		-1.33724-1.27075-1.36826
Metz
Lille		12.8%
67.1%		20.1%
+1150
-415
+1125
-380
1
6		-0.25058-0.25613-0.39925
Toulouse
Monaco		5.9%
82.3%		11.8%
+226
+122
+280
+115
0
1		-0.83188-0.77150-0.19539
Paris Saint-Germain
Brest		87.9%
3.6%		8.5%
-297
+805
-310
+815
3
0		-0.32519-0.32414-0.12886
Lille
Nantes		56.7%
19.3%		24.0%
-154
+467
-140
+400
2
0		-0.53558-0.58780-0.56789
Metz
Toulouse		66.2%
12.7%		21.0%
+540
-185
+525
-190
0
4		-0.46679-0.46949-2.06357
Brest
Lorient		35.6%
34.8%		29.6%
+169
+179
+170
+175
3
3		-1.22227-1.22601-1.21702
Monaco
Angers		42.3%
31.9%		25.8%
-159
+465
-150
+405
1
1		-1.44333-1.43322-1.35530
Lyon
Nice		58.0%
19.9%		22.0%
+220
+130
+216
+130
2
3		-0.86698-0.86152-1.61440
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.91754 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.94296 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.12962
-0.21208
-0.18666

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.