France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 18, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Nantes
Rennes 		26.5%
45.5%		28.0%
+355
-120
+345
-125
0.93
1.32		2.25
o2½-105
u2½-113
o2½+100
u2½-120
Games for Apr 17, 2025
Games for Apr 19, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brest
Montpellier		23.6%
50.2%		26.2%
+156
+193
+150
+215
1
3		-1.10936-1.16767-0.68953
Lille
Nice		60.3%
18.1%		21.5%
+229
+136
+210
+140
2
2		-1.22414-1.21362-1.53591
Paris Saint-Germain
Angers		87.6%
3.7%		8.7%
-365
+1000
-350
+900
4
2		-0.27736-0.30171-0.13243
Monaco
Strasbourg		34.9%
38.0%		27.1%
-101
+280
+100
+255
3
1		-0.71658-0.74381-1.05228
Marseille
Nantes		44.9%
27.1%		28.0%
+115
+255
+105
+280
2
1		-0.79746-0.76613-0.80162
Reims
Toulouse		72.2%
8.6%		19.2%
+330
-110
+265
+100
0
1		-0.68021-0.74360-2.45248
Strasbourg
Saint-Etienne		41.4%
30.6%		27.9%
+110
+255
+105
+260
0
2		-1.29120-1.32336-1.18277
Nice
Brest		34.2%
38.6%		27.1%
+163
+200
+165
+195
1
0		-0.99271-1.02304-1.07254
Lyon
Lille		30.2%
43.0%		26.8%
+210
+125
+210
+120
1
1		-1.36473-1.34458-1.31822
Angers
Monaco		24.7%
51.6%		23.7%
+1075
-400
+1100
-475
1
0		-2.49241-2.53591-1.39918
Paris Saint-Germain
Marseille		80.3%
6.7%		13.0%
-120
+320
-125
+310
3
0		-0.64097-0.63605-0.21957
Monaco
Nice		42.8%
32.2%		25.0%
-104
+308
+105
+260
1
2		-1.42745-1.33094-1.13336
Toulouse
Montpellier		6.5%
79.0%		14.5%
+116
+235
+110
+235
3
0		-0.79786-0.78946-2.73908
Nantes
Strasbourg		27.6%
44.3%		28.0%
+310
-104
+310
-110
1
3		-0.70473-0.69485-0.81340
Brest
Reims		22.2%
49.7%		28.1%
+360
-115
+340
-105
2
1		-1.55566-1.51054-1.50283
Saint-Etienne
Angers		29.6%
43.4%		26.9%
+235
+129
+230
+125
2
4		-0.84924-0.86022-0.83361
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.