France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 18 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
11/29/2025 04:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Monaco	85.2% 5.0%	9.7%	-147 +365 -150 +360	0 1	-1.57118-1.56830	-2.99274
11/28/2025 07:45 PM	Rennes Metz	39.8% 30.5%	29.7%	-105 +272 +103 +250	1 0	-0.70453-0.75205	-0.92153
11/23/2025 04:15 PM	Lorient Nantes	25.0% 47.4%	27.6%	+142 +205 +143 +200	1 1	-1.25839-1.25141	-1.28754
11/23/2025 04:15 PM	Angers Toulouse	68.7% 12.1%	19.2%	+480 -147 +450 -150	1 0	-1.79360-1.75210	-0.37478
11/23/2025 04:15 PM	Metz Brest	32.3% 38.6%	29.1%	+365 -121 +352 -130	2 3	-0.62642-0.61897	-0.95181
11/22/2025 06:00 PM	Monaco Rennes	33.6% 39.2%	27.2%	+179 +147 +165 +150	1 4	-0.93935-0.96635	-0.93545
11/21/2025 07:45 PM	Marseille Nice	48.3% 26.1%	25.6%	-104 +286 -110 +287	5 1	-0.70729-0.69435	-0.72780
11/09/2025 07:45 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Lyon	76.2% 9.1%	14.8%	-170 +500 -160 +480	3 2	-0.49645-0.51671	-0.27244
11/09/2025 04:15 PM	Nice Metz	33.2% 38.8%	28.0%	+133 +205 +120 +210	1 2	-1.14939-1.18123	-0.94778
11/09/2025 04:15 PM	Lille Strasbourg	51.7% 22.9%	25.4%	+146 +180 +150 +170	0 2	-1.06297-1.04401	-1.47451
11/09/2025 02:00 PM	Toulouse Lorient	11.3% 69.0%	19.7%	+144 +215 +145 +200	1 1	-1.21520-1.22670	-1.62618
11/08/2025 04:00 PM	Brest Marseille	18.5% 58.1%	23.4%	+580 -208 +600 -215	0 3	-0.42495-0.41939	-0.54347
11/02/2025 07:45 PM	Lyon Brest	59.0% 18.6%	22.4%	+120 +261 +115 +250	0 0	-1.22792-1.25713	-1.49714
11/02/2025 04:15 PM	Metz Nantes	29.0% 41.7%	29.3%	+252 +113 +258 +110	2 0	-1.29313-1.31576	-1.23853
11/02/2025 04:15 PM	Angers Lille	13.3% 67.4%	19.3%	+775 -275 +800 -275	0 1	-0.34479-0.33935	-0.39421
11/02/2025 02:00 PM	Strasbourg Rennes	30.5% 40.5%	29.0%	+160 +176 +170 +170	1 4	-1.04974-1.01935	-0.90365

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.