France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 19, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Strasbourg
Monaco 		30.4%
43.5%		26.1%
+440
-176
+410
-180
1.16
1.44		2.60
o3¼-114
u3¼-105
o3½+115
u3½-135
Montpellier
Marseille 		25.8%
46.5%		27.6%
+1400
-530
+1250
-550
0.93
1.36		2.29
o3½+100
u3½-118
o3½+105
u3½-125
Games for Apr 18, 2025
Games for Apr 20, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Saint-Etienne
Angers		29.6%
43.4%		26.9%
+235
+129
+230
+125
2
4		-0.84924-0.86022-0.83361
Marseille
Montpellier		37.9%
32.4%		29.6%
-140
+395
-135
+335
5
0		-0.56219-0.60431-0.96914
Angers
Toulouse		68.7%
12.1%		19.2%
+680
-192
+650
-205
1
1		-1.49455-1.45917-1.65078
Nice
Nantes		30.7%
42.1%		27.2%
+170
+194
+170
+200
1
1		-1.19670-1.14624-1.30243
Strasbourg
Paris Saint-Germain		3.6%
87.5%		8.8%
+930
-350
+850
-365
2
4		-0.28559-0.29113-0.13323
Rennes
Brest		41.1%
30.3%		28.5%
+182
+170
+180
+170
1
1		-1.22156-1.18026-1.25439
Lille
Monaco		50.7%
25.2%		24.1%
+258
+109
+295
-110
0
0		-1.34592-1.34442-1.42225
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-167
+470
-165
+440
1
1		-1.48250-1.46145-2.51294
Montpellier
Reims		29.4%
38.7%		31.8%
+425
-152
+385
-150
2
4		-0.53144-0.55970-0.94954
Nantes
Lyon		15.7%
62.9%		21.4%
+430
-146
+370
-135
0
2		-0.54747-0.60347-0.46416
Monaco
Rennes		33.6%
39.2%		27.2%
+154
+186
+145
+180
2
1		-0.96482-0.94585-1.09195
Toulouse
Lille		3.5%
87.2%		9.3%
+387
-120
+330
-120
1
2		-0.61999-0.64986-0.13683
Angers
Marseille		19.7%
56.4%		23.9%
+1000
-350
+1000
-400
1
1		-1.86085-1.88902-1.43255
Marseille
Strasbourg		39.8%
31.2%		29.0%
+118
+245
+115
+220
0
1		-1.24008-1.21345-1.16536
Saint-Etienne
Nantes		27.8%
44.8%		27.3%
+406
-130
+370
-130
2
2		-1.37038-1.35545-1.29751
Reims
Angers		39.8%
29.8%		30.4%
+120
+280
+115
+260
3
1		-0.80898-0.81482-0.92176
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.65034 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.60398 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.78735
-0.13701
-0.18337

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.