France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Marseille
Nantes 		44.9%
27.1%		28.0%
-155
+420

1.32
0.95		2.27
o2¾-120
u3-122

Lorient
Paris Saint-Germain 		2.5%
90.6%		6.9%
+900
-405

0.50
3.46		3.96
o3½-104
u3½-115

Monaco
Metz 		42.9%
30.5%		26.6%
-231
+600

1.39
1.13		2.52
o3½+100
u3½-120

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Strasbourg
Paris Saint-Germain		3.6%
87.5%		8.8%
+715
-255
+680
-260
3
3		-1.67360-1.67948-2.42690
Paris Saint-Germain
Lille		73.8%
10.1%		16.1%
+107
+260
+110
+250
1
1		-1.32901-1.28884-1.82728
Angers
Strasbourg		26.4%
47.1%		26.5%
+410
-136
+400
-130
0
5		-0.58607-0.60194-0.75373
Nice
Monaco		24.8%
52.2%		23.0%
+287
-105
+279
+100
2
2		-1.36230-1.34186-1.47124
Toulouse
Lyon		3.7%
86.9%		9.4%
+295
+102
+292
+105
2
1		-1.40789-1.39433-3.29954
Nantes
Brest		34.8%
35.7%		29.6%
+305
-104
+300
-105
0
0		-1.31078-1.30372-1.21882
Marseille
Metz		47.7%
24.7%		27.5%
-180
+515
-185
+500
3
0		-0.47554-0.47331-0.73965
Brest
Angers		30.7%
41.9%		27.4%
+139
+234
+140
+222
2
0		-0.90594-0.92407-1.18234
Lyon
Lille		30.2%
43.0%		26.8%
+212
+135
+206
+135
1
0		-1.17147-1.16136-1.19759
Nantes
Toulouse		69.0%
11.3%		19.6%
+447
-138
+395
-135
2
2		-1.33272-1.34396-1.62791
Monaco
Lorient		48.7%
26.1%		25.2%
-108
+284
-115
+310
1
3		-1.38087-1.44558-1.34243
Marseille
Strasbourg		39.8%
31.2%		29.0%
+119
+237
+120
+225
2
1		-0.81606-0.83144-0.92012
Paris Saint-Germain
Marseille		80.3%
6.7%		13.0%

-130
+322
0
1		-1.49188-2.70680
Metz
Monaco		23.6%
52.0%		24.4%
+795
-315
+760
-312
2
5		-0.30982-0.32018-0.65433
Nice
Brest		34.2%
38.6%		27.1%
+132
+205
+135
+210
1
4		-1.14967-1.15325-0.95099
Rennes
Nantes		37.0%
33.0%		30.0%
+103
+300
+100
+290
2
2		-1.27450-1.28359-1.20554
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.40813 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.45839 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.47190
-0.06377
-0.01351

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.