France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Saint-Etienne
Nice 		29.9%
44.1%		26.0%
+590
-193
+540
-190
1.15
1.45		2.60
o2½-112
u2½-103
o2½-120
u2½+100
Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Toulouse
Lyon		3.7%
86.9%		9.4%
+365
-110
+340
-130
0
3		-0.62923-0.61828-0.14090
Le Havre
Strasbourg		15.2%
62.5%		22.3%
+265
+137
+230
+135
1
2		-0.85729-0.90429-0.47037
Monaco
Rennes		33.6%
39.2%		27.2%
+165
+175
+155
+170
2
1		-0.98577-0.98714-1.09195
Lens
Montpellier		15.9%
61.3%		22.7%
+105
+285
+105
+260
0
0		-1.31602-1.30280-1.48188
Strasbourg
Brest		39.9%
31.6%		28.5%
+395
-115
+400
-120
1
1		-1.29550-1.29375-1.25639
Lyon
Marseille		39.8%
32.3%		27.9%
+350
-105
+345
-120
0
3		-0.66318-0.64232-1.13097
Lille
Lyon		34.6%
37.6%		27.8%
+144
+215
+140
+200
2
0		-0.90093-0.92284-1.06239
Reims
Rennes		31.7%
35.8%		32.5%
+283
+111
+250
+110
1
3		-0.75198-0.79239-1.02680
Le Havre
Nantes		18.2%
57.3%		24.5%
+330
+105
+275
+105
0
0		-1.25267-1.26058-1.40601
Brest
Montpellier		23.6%
50.2%		26.2%
+225
+133
+225
+125
3
1		-1.20504-1.22806-1.44545
Marseille
Strasbourg		39.8%
31.2%		29.0%
-105
+335
-110
+300
1
1		-1.32062-1.33124-1.23925
Monaco
Paris Saint-Germain		3.7%
88.3%		8.0%

+500
-220
2
5		-0.42745-0.12474
Marseille
Lens		60.5%
16.6%		22.9%
+225
+135
+220
+130
0
1		-0.86922-0.87347-1.79721
Toulouse
Lille		3.5%
87.2%		9.3%
+535
-170
+575
-215
1
1		-1.53053-1.55566-2.37258
Monaco
Le Havre		59.1%
18.7%		22.2%
-130
+392
-135
+345
0
0		-1.42329-1.42474-1.50584
Brest
Monaco		23.2%
53.4%		23.4%
+345
-124
+345
-135
0
2		-0.61042-0.59649-0.62798
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.