France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Marseille
Nantes 		44.9%
27.1%		28.0%
-155
+420

1.32
0.95		2.27
o2¾-120
u3-122

Lorient
Paris Saint-Germain 		2.5%
90.6%		6.9%
+900
-405

0.50
3.46		3.96
o3½-104
u3½-115

Monaco
Metz 		42.9%
30.5%		26.6%
-231
+600

1.39
1.13		2.52
o3½+100
u3½-120

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Angers
Lyon		14.6%
65.6%		19.8%
+680
-217
+650
-220
0
1		-0.39367-0.40862-0.42222
Lyon
Rennes		47.6%
25.9%		26.5%
+181
+155
+195
+144
1
3		-0.97085-0.93321-1.34938
Angers
Metz		32.7%
38.2%		29.0%
+253
+128
+246
+125
1
1		-1.19696-1.20808-1.23653
Toulouse
Lille		3.5%
87.2%		9.3%
+355
-119
+350
-125
1
2		-0.64497-0.63471-0.13683
Nantes
Nice		33.9%
38.3%		27.8%
+480
-175
+468
-170
0
1		-0.50446-0.51103-0.95912
Lorient
Marseille		15.7%
61.7%		22.6%
+740
-270
+740
-300
0
4		-0.35015-0.33731-0.48347
Marseille
Lyon		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+137
+200
+145
+180
0
1		-1.13113-1.07784-0.71951
Strasbourg
Monaco		30.4%
43.5%		26.1%
+560
-215
+590
-205
2
3		-0.41542-0.40482-0.83133
Rennes
Angers		39.5%
32.0%		28.5%
-117
+340
-115
+365
1
1		-1.34838-1.31834-1.25397
Paris Saint-Germain
Toulouse		92.7%
1.7%		5.6%
-280
+750
-300
+775
6
3		-0.33947-0.32964-0.07535
Lille
Lorient		64.6%
14.4%		21.0%
+121
+235
+120
+235
7
1		-0.82748-0.82650-0.43645
Monaco
Lille		18.8%
59.7%		21.4%
+118
+232
+120
+245
0
1		-1.23330-1.26805-0.51507
Nantes
Strasbourg		27.6%
44.3%		28.0%
+395
-128
+415
-128
0
1		-0.61260-0.60644-0.81340
Brest
Toulouse		66.9%
12.9%		20.1%
+233
+129
+230
+121
0
2		-0.86256-0.84144-2.04500
Rennes
Lorient		45.4%
26.5%		28.1%
+160
+180
+160
+180
0
4		-1.06404-1.07256-1.32772
Metz
Lyon		14.1%
65.4%		20.6%
+630
-240
+624
-235
0
3		-0.38289-0.38669-0.42538
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.40813 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.45839 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.47190
-0.06377
-0.01351

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.