France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 19, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Strasbourg
Monaco 		30.4%
43.5%		26.1%
+445
-177
+425
-185
1.16
1.44		2.60
o3¼-114
u3¼-105
o3½+110
u3½-130
Montpellier
Marseille 		25.8%
46.5%		27.6%
+1400
-530
+1350
-600
0.93
1.36		2.29
o3½-102
u3½-115
o3½-105
u3½-115
Games for Apr 18, 2025
Games for Apr 20, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lyon
Toulouse		83.8%
4.9%		11.3%
+200
+145
+190
+140
2
1		-1.12547-1.11480-0.17637
Montpellier
Monaco		31.8%
41.5%		26.7%
+900
-280
+1025
-385
1
2		-0.29367-0.25614-0.87856
Rennes
Paris Saint-Germain		3.8%
86.8%		9.3%
+615
-230
+675
-270
1
3		-0.39527-0.36489-0.14124
Marseille
Lyon		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+142
+187
+130
+190
3
2		-0.90827-0.88160-1.37078
Toulouse
Brest		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+195
+186
+190
+160
0
2		-1.02907-0.99196-0.30791
Nantes
Angers		33.5%
37.7%		28.8%
+142
+224
+145
+205
1
1		-1.21848-1.21053-1.24545
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims		81.0%
5.6%		13.3%
-255
+695
-250
+650
1
1		-1.68913-1.63969-2.01590
Strasbourg
Lille		17.2%
60.2%		22.5%
+495
-173
+475
-170
3
3		-1.49237-1.47587-1.48957
Saint-Etienne
Nice		29.9%
44.1%		26.0%
+615
-202
+540
-190
0
8		-0.42796-0.47392-0.81814
Reims
Nantes		37.2%
30.7%		32.1%
+217
+145
+200
+145
2
1		-1.18003-1.14219-0.98980
Angers
Strasbourg		26.4%
47.1%		26.5%
+465
-152
+450
-150
1
1		-1.43477-1.36908-1.32693
Montpellier
Rennes		31.7%
38.6%		29.7%
+600
-220
+535
-210
0
3		-0.39711-0.44043-0.95215
Brest
Paris Saint-Germain		2.8%
90.0%		7.2%
+950
-350
+900
-350
1
3		-0.28631-0.30028-0.10493
Nice
Marseille		19.8%
57.2%		22.9%
+345
-111
+330
-120
0
2		-0.66678-0.65329-0.55785
Lille
Saint-Etienne		62.5%
16.2%		21.4%
-140
+445
-135
+400
0
1		-1.72513-1.66036-1.82201
Paris Saint-Germain
Lille		73.8%
10.1%		16.1%
-128
+355
-130
+325
3
1		-0.61171-0.61982-0.30365
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.65034 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.60398 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.78735
-0.13701
-0.18337

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.