France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Marseille
Nantes 		44.9%
27.1%		28.0%
-155
+420

1.32
0.95		2.27
o2¾-120
u3-122

Lorient
Paris Saint-Germain 		2.5%
90.6%		6.9%
+900
-405

0.50
3.46		3.96
o3½-104
u3½-115

Monaco
Metz 		42.9%
30.5%		26.6%
-231
+600

1.39
1.13		2.52
o3½+100
u3½-120

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Angers
Paris Saint-Germain		2.9%
89.8%		7.2%
+2850
-1275
+2600
-1350
0
1		-0.11014-0.11547-0.10714
Paris Saint-Germain
Nantes		86.3%
4.1%		9.7%
-480
+1250
-530
+1300
1
0		-0.22363-0.22314-0.14787
Strasbourg
Metz		38.6%
31.8%		29.6%
+104
+280
+100
+275
1
0		-0.74739-0.74036-0.95106
Lille
Brest		61.0%
17.0%		22.1%
+205
+153
+185
+160
3
3		-1.20035-1.19902-1.51140
Toulouse
Nice		8.6%
76.1%		15.3%
+325
-105
+260
+100
1
0		-1.48197-1.35445-2.45329
Marseille
Rennes		38.2%
32.1%		29.6%
-105
+302
-105
+275
0
1		-1.42562-1.37322-1.13485
Metz
Reims		22.5%
48.0%		29.5%
+198
+160
+210
+140
3
1		-1.12599-1.18185-1.49214
Reims
Metz		39.8%
28.3%		31.9%
+250
+120
+250
+120
1
1		-1.24271-1.22550-1.14351
Brest
Nice		30.9%
42.5%		26.5%
+520
-190
+485
-200
0
6		-0.44735-0.45678-0.85475
Montpellier
Nantes		37.3%
32.8%		29.9%
+550
-180
+510
-185
0
3		-0.47068-0.48203-1.11514
Reims
Lille		19.0%
54.8%		26.2%
+800
-265
+675
-250
1
2		-0.34919-0.38480-0.60150
Rennes
Marseille		25.6%
46.8%		27.6%
+405
-155
+370
-150
2
4		-0.52553-0.56044-0.75931
Toulouse
Saint-Etienne		9.9%
72.8%		17.3%
+190
+137
+200
+130
3
2		-1.09419-1.12609-2.31658
Angers
Lyon		14.6%
65.6%		19.8%
+1500
-575
+1500
-430
0
2		-0.19389-0.20411-0.42222
Lille
Brest		61.0%
17.0%		22.1%
-138
+395
-150
+390
0
2		-1.62481-1.63897-1.77349
Lyon
Monaco		48.1%
27.4%		24.5%
+293
-120
+285
-125
0
2		-0.63296-0.63713-1.29415
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.40813 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.45839 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.47190
-0.06377
-0.01351

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.