France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Strasbourg
Lille 		17.2%
60.2%		22.5%
+423
-140
+410
-150
0.86
1.82		2.68
o2½-120
u2½+102
o2½-120
u2½+100
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims 		81.0%
5.6%		13.3%
-227
+600
-235
+575
2.53
0.52		3.05
o3-128
u3+108
o3-120
u3+100
Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 22, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Le Havre
Marseille		10.9%
70.0%		19.1%
+625
-207
+565
-215
0
3		-0.41879-0.43329-0.35673
Monaco
Reims		31.4%
39.8%		28.8%
+156
+174
+160
+160
3
1		-0.96202-1.00518-1.15897
Nantes
Strasbourg		27.6%
44.3%		28.0%
+235
+139
+230
+130
2
1		-1.23326-1.24303-1.28609
Nantes
Rennes		26.5%
45.5%		28.0%
+433
-150
+475
-170
1
3		-0.54185-0.50898-0.78735
Montpellier
Lorient		45.7%
26.3%		28.0%
+132
+216
+125
+210
3
0		-0.87424-0.86232-0.78336
Brest
Nice		30.9%
42.5%		26.5%
+370
-120
+385
-140
0
0		-1.35615-1.38633-1.32667
Marseille
Monaco		38.6%
34.4%		27.0%
+180
+148
+180
+140
2
3		-0.93151-0.92213-1.06732
Lens
Strasbourg		16.9%
59.9%		23.1%
+101
+308
+100
+280
1
0		-0.71832-0.74482-1.77537
Reims
Lille		19.0%
54.8%		26.2%
+303
-113
+285
-110
2
1		-1.42824-1.39707-1.65884
Rennes
Montpellier		31.2%
39.1%		29.7%
+161
+180
+155
+170
0
0		-1.28866-1.28942-1.21534
Toulouse
Lens		14.6%
63.4%		22.0%
+655
-215
+600
-220
1
2		-0.40932-0.42593-0.45536
Lyon
Brest		59.0%
18.6%		22.4%
+170
+156
+170
+150
0
1		-0.97437-0.96703-1.68147
Lorient
Nantes		25.0%
47.4%		27.6%
+205
+149
+190
+140
3
5		-0.93143-0.92553-0.74712
Toulouse
Marseille		5.0%
82.8%		12.3%
+615
-202
+600
-225
0
0		-1.61813-1.58587-2.09948
Montpellier
Strasbourg		33.0%
37.4%		29.6%
+195
+205
+145
+185
2
2		-1.22591-1.27558-1.21817
Monaco
Lorient		48.7%
26.1%		25.2%
-121
+380
-130
+325
2
2		-1.41441-1.43557-1.37749
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.42796 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.47392 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.81814
-0.39018
-0.34422

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.