France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Marseille
Nantes 		44.9%
27.1%		28.0%
-155
+420

1.32
0.95		2.27
o2¾-120
u3-122

Lorient
Paris Saint-Germain 		2.5%
90.6%		6.9%
+900
-405

0.50
3.46		3.96
o3½-104
u3½-115

Monaco
Metz 		42.9%
30.5%		26.6%
-231
+600

1.39
1.13		2.52
o3½+100
u3½-120

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nice
Rennes		25.5%
49.0%		25.5%
+119
+220
+110
+235
0
2		-1.19491-1.24612-0.71355
Paris Saint-Germain
Montpellier		83.6%
5.1%		11.3%
-255
+605
-270
+590
4
1		-0.36494-0.36544-0.17902
Strasbourg
Angers		38.3%
33.3%		28.5%
-120
+347
-125
+330
1
2		-1.52588-1.50860-1.10024
Saint-Etienne
Reims		21.4%
51.3%		27.3%
+242
+115
+245
+110
2
0		-1.25706-1.28500-1.54150
Marseille
Lille		23.3%
51.1%		25.6%
+210
+140
+200
+140
1
1		-1.26705-1.25632-1.36301
Montpellier
Brest		41.4%
30.1%		28.5%
+750
-280
+800
-325
0
1		-0.33853-0.31825-1.20091
Angers
Nantes		30.4%
41.5%		28.2%
+347
-105
+350
-115
1
0		-1.53123-1.55405-1.19231
Monaco
Saint-Etienne		45.7%
29.1%		25.2%
-218
+525
-220
+500
3
1		-0.40782-0.42372-0.78285
Rennes
Toulouse		73.8%
8.9%		17.3%
+253
+112
+240
+115
1
2		-0.78366-0.81744-2.41811
Paris Saint-Germain
Strasbourg		84.6%
4.8%		10.6%
+187
+137
+175
+135
1
2		-0.89722-0.90542-3.03655
Reims
Nice		40.5%
30.3%		29.2%
+685
-252
+715
-280
0
1		-0.36229-0.35593-1.19485
Brest
Marseille		18.5%
58.1%		23.4%
+735
-270
+700
-275
1
4		-0.34276-0.35782-0.54347
Toulouse
Nantes		8.3%
75.0%		16.7%
+170
+187
+165
+185
0
0		-1.19399-1.18097-1.79234
Reims
Montpellier		31.4%
36.1%		32.5%
-115
+328
-120
+320
0
0		-1.37595-1.37074-1.12507
Lille
Angers		59.5%
18.1%		22.4%
-205
+640
-230
+675
2
0		-0.42636-0.41048-0.51936
Rennes
Lyon		19.8%
56.4%		23.8%
+410
-157
+365
-150
1
4		-0.52162-0.55995-0.57286
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.