France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 23 hr ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
02/02/2025 04:15 PM	Strasbourg Rennes	30.5% 40.5%	29.0%	+340 -105 +280 +105	0 1	-0.69794-0.76613	-0.90365
02/02/2025 04:15 PM	Nantes Reims	24.6% 45.3%	30.0%	+248 +127 +245 +120	2 1	-1.27748-1.28913	-1.40104
02/02/2025 02:00 PM	Nice Toulouse	69.8% 11.9%	18.2%	+144 +213 +150 +190	1 1	-1.23643-1.22984	-1.70210
02/01/2025 08:05 PM	Saint-Etienne Lille	11.8% 70.0%	18.2%	+625 -195 +650 -230	1 4	-0.43252-0.40988	-0.35685
02/01/2025 04:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Brest	87.9% 3.6%	8.5%	-283 +765 -310 +775	5 2	-0.33669-0.32738	-0.12886
01/26/2025 07:45 PM	Marseille Nice	48.3% 26.1%	25.6%	+165 +172 +165 +165	0 2	-1.03572-1.02223	-1.34224
01/26/2025 04:15 PM	Lyon Nantes	54.5% 21.1%	24.4%	-112 +320 -120 +320	1 1	-1.35429-1.37074	-1.41104
01/26/2025 04:15 PM	Montpellier Toulouse	74.0% 8.8%	17.2%	+433 -147 +410 -145	2 1	-1.70556-1.67906	-0.30167
01/25/2025 08:05 PM	Reims Paris Saint-Germain	4.2% 84.5%	11.2%	+1150 -510 +1225 -575	1 1	-2.15218-2.15762	-2.18774
01/25/2025 06:00 PM	Lille Strasbourg	51.7% 22.9%	25.4%	+145 +220 +135 +210	1 2	-1.18656-1.17697	-1.47451
01/25/2025 04:00 PM	Rennes Monaco	31.5% 41.8%	26.7%	+435 -142 +400 -150	2 3	-0.56600-0.56263	-0.87156
01/19/2025 07:45 PM	Strasbourg Marseille	24.6% 48.6%	26.8%	+460 -168 +440 -175	1 1	-1.53137-1.52033	-1.31531
01/19/2025 02:00 PM	Nantes Saint-Etienne	36.2% 34.7%	29.1%	+147 +211 +155 +195	1 1	-1.22295-1.18375	-1.23553
01/18/2025 08:05 PM	Toulouse Lyon	3.7% 86.9%	9.4%	+335 -122 +295 -115	0 0	-1.40580-1.38494	-2.36000
01/18/2025 06:00 PM	Brest Rennes	23.8% 49.9%	26.3%	+320 +104 +330 -105	2 1	-1.46413-1.50973	-1.43569
01/17/2025 08:05 PM	Nice Lille	13.2% 68.3%	18.5%	+315 -102 +250 +125	1 2	-0.71052-0.83492	-0.38087

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	1	1-0-0 (1.000)	0	-0.75726
Sportsbooks	1	1-0-0 (1.000)	0	-0.76336
DRatings	1	1-0-0 (1.000)	0	-0.74005	0.01721 0.02331

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.