France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Strasbourg
Lille 		17.2%
60.2%		22.5%
+408
-140
+410
-150
0.86
1.82		2.68
o2½-120
u2½+100
o2½-120
u2½+100
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims 		81.0%
5.6%		13.3%
-213
+600
-235
+575
2.53
0.52		3.05
o3-123
u3+103
o3-120
u3+100
Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 22, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lille
Rennes		49.9%
23.9%		26.2%
+265
+120
+225
+115
2
2		-1.29324-1.33025-1.33930
Montpellier
Lille		18.3%
58.3%		23.5%
+300
-108
+280
-110
0
1		-0.68072-0.69555-0.53998
Lorient
Le Havre		40.2%
30.2%		29.5%
+200
+165
+200
+150
0
3		-0.99277-0.96582-1.19706
Lens
Monaco		15.3%
64.8%		19.9%
+265
-103
+245
+100
0
3		-0.71366-0.74156-0.43413
Rennes
Brest		41.1%
30.3%		28.5%
+110
+256
+105
+260
0
0		-1.31520-1.30280-1.25439
Marseille
Nantes		44.9%
27.1%		28.0%
-168
+470
-160
+435
1
1		-1.51077-1.46547-1.27247
Lille
Lorient		64.6%
14.4%		21.0%
-108
+315
-105
+290
1
4		-1.45312-1.41005-1.94072
Toulouse
Strasbourg		6.8%
78.5%		14.7%
+260
+115
+245
+110
0
2		-0.79367-0.79239-0.24207
Reims
Montpellier		31.4%
36.1%		32.5%
+220
+125
+210
+130
3
1		-1.19730-1.16970-1.15712
Le Havre
Rennes		14.5%
63.4%		22.1%
+585
-195
+570
-200
2
2		-1.51531-1.50593-1.50824
Monaco
Nantes		39.7%
33.2%		27.1%
-120
+345
-125
+320
3
3		-1.39679-1.40985-1.30424
Rennes
Lens		52.6%
21.5%		25.9%
+207
+135
+195
+135
1
1		-1.29938-1.30177-1.34946
Strasbourg
Monaco		30.4%
43.5%		26.1%
+336
-130
+320
-130
0
3		-0.60270-0.61954-0.83133
Nantes
Lille		14.3%
64.8%		20.9%
+650
-225
+650
-240
0
2		-0.39701-0.39686-0.43464
Montpellier
Lyon		20.0%
56.1%		23.9%
+290
-110
+310
-125
4
1		-1.38482-1.45925-1.61074
Lyon
Strasbourg		49.3%
24.9%		25.7%
+179
+150
+185
+145
1
2		-0.95112-0.94384-1.39006
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.42796 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.47392 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.81814
-0.39018
-0.34422

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.