France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 1 day ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
01/17/2025 06:00 PM	Monaco Montpellier	33.3% 39.5%	27.2%	-160 +435 -180 +435	1 2	-1.70128-1.72777	-0.92763
01/12/2025 07:45 PM	Saint-Etienne Paris Saint-Germain	2.7% 90.5%	6.8%	+2100 -850 +2000 -975	1 2	-0.14604-0.14628	-0.10019
01/12/2025 04:15 PM	Angers Montpellier	25.0% 48.6%	26.4%	+282 +112 +275 +110	3 1	-1.35926-1.37105	-1.38657
01/12/2025 04:15 PM	Strasbourg Toulouse	73.2% 9.3%	17.4%	+300 -101 +340 -105	2 1	-1.41614-1.51467	-0.31184
01/11/2025 08:05 PM	Marseille Rennes	38.2% 32.1%	29.6%	+135 +225 +135 +220	2 1	-0.88826-0.90372	-0.96215
01/11/2025 06:00 PM	Nice Reims	23.8% 49.1%	27.0%	+156 +188 +160 +175	4 2	-0.97146-1.00550	-1.43397
01/11/2025 04:00 PM	Lyon Brest	59.0% 18.6%	22.4%	+111 +260 +110 +260	1 2	-1.30626-1.32791	-1.68147
01/10/2025 06:00 PM	Monaco Nantes	39.7% 33.2%	27.1%	+112 +300 -130 +380	2 2	-1.21838-1.33097	-1.30424
01/05/2025 02:00 PM	Brest Angers	30.7% 41.9%	27.4%	+136 +240 +120 +250	0 2	-1.24897-1.29960	-0.87017
01/04/2025 08:00 PM	Montpellier Lyon	20.0% 56.1%	23.9%	+710 -275 +700 -300	0 1	-0.33895-0.33543	-0.57748
01/04/2025 06:00 PM	Nantes Lille	14.3% 64.8%	20.9%	+638 -195 +575 -200	1 1	-1.48726-1.49584	-1.56394
01/04/2025 04:00 PM	Reims Saint-Etienne	42.8% 27.4%	29.8%	+116 +255 +110 +250	1 3	-1.29295-1.30324	-1.29503
01/03/2025 08:00 PM	Rennes Nice	40.0% 32.4%	27.6%	+215 +145 +215 +140	2 3	-0.92614-0.91644	-1.12655
12/18/2024 08:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Monaco	85.2% 5.0%	9.7%	-125 +331 -130 +325	4 2	-0.62168-0.61982	-0.15970
12/15/2024 07:45 PM	Lyon Paris Saint-Germain	6.5% 81.3%	12.2%	+700 -278 +690 -300	1 3	-0.34253-0.33694	-0.20684
12/15/2024 04:00 PM	Angers Rennes	25.2% 48.3%	26.5%	+530 -162 +500 -170	0 2	-0.50745-0.51089	-0.72853

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.