France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Strasbourg
Lille 		17.2%
60.2%		22.5%
+408
-142
+410
-150
0.86
1.82		2.68
o2½-120
u2½+100
o2½-120
u2½+100
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims 		81.0%
5.6%		13.3%
-213
+600
-235
+575
2.53
0.52		3.05
o3-123
u3+103
o3-120
u3+100
Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 22, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Toulouse
Nantes		8.3%
75.0%		16.7%
+143
+206
+150
+195
2
1		-0.91569-0.94887-2.49109
Le Havre
Montpellier		14.3%
63.6%		22.0%
+460
-140
+410
-125
2
2		-1.34396-1.33003-1.51267
Lorient
Paris Saint-Germain		2.5%
90.6%		6.9%

+710
-275
0
0		-1.68077-2.67032
Reims
Marseille		26.2%
43.4%		30.4%
+295
-105
+335
-110
1
2		-0.69716-0.67391-0.83586
Lille
Nice		60.3%
18.1%		21.5%
+194
+146
+170
+155
1
1		-1.29488-1.28942-1.53591
Lille
Troyes		74.8%
8.5%		16.6%
-550
+1300
-575
+1100
1
1		-2.17463-2.19678-1.79438
Montpellier
Reims		29.4%
38.7%		31.8%
+300
-125
+280
-120
3
1		-1.42064-1.38617-1.22254
Rennes
Brest		41.1%
30.3%		28.5%
-140
+375
-145
+370
2
1		-0.57323-0.57476-0.88887
Lyon
Nice		58.0%
19.9%		22.0%
+165
+142
+150
+145
1
3		-0.91767-0.94685-1.61440
Strasbourg
Lorient		44.2%
27.7%		28.1%
+130
+211
+120
+215
1
2		-1.16816-1.19600-1.28413
Angers
Nantes		30.4%
41.5%		28.2%
+550
-200
+485
-200
0
1		-0.43821-0.45462-0.88008
Toulouse
Monaco		5.9%
82.3%		11.8%
+575
-260
+540
-260
2
1		-1.94456-1.90879-2.82751
Monaco
Rennes		33.6%
39.2%		27.2%
+282
-103
+255
-105
0
2		-0.70055-0.71812-0.93545
Paris Saint-Germain
Strasbourg		84.6%
4.8%		10.6%

-140
+350
1
1		-1.45925-2.24205
Brest
Marseille		18.5%
58.1%		23.4%
+873
-330
+800
-330
2
1		-2.30399-2.24838-1.68670
Reims
Lyon		20.8%
52.8%		26.5%
+341
-145
+320
-150
0
3		-0.54695-0.56261-0.63881
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.42796 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.47392 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.81814
-0.39018
-0.34422

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.