France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Strasbourg
Lille 		17.2%
60.2%		22.5%
+408
-140
+410
-150
0.86
1.82		2.68
o2½-120
u2½+102
o2½-120
u2½+100
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims 		81.0%
5.6%		13.3%
-215
+600
-235
+575
2.53
0.52		3.05
o3-123
u3+103
o3-120
u3+100
Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 22, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nice
Montpellier		25.2%
49.3%		25.5%
+197
+143
+185
+140
3
2		-1.11124-1.09919-1.37805
Nantes
Lille		14.3%
64.8%		20.9%
+692
-228
+600
-230
1
2		-0.39087-0.41228-0.43464
Troyes
Angers		16.9%
60.0%		23.1%
+354
-134
+330
-135
1
2		-0.58263-0.60398-0.51059
Lens
Lorient		26.1%
46.1%		27.8%
-144
+431
-150
+380
3
1		-0.55243-0.55893-1.34232
Strasbourg
Troyes		57.8%
17.7%		24.4%
-230
+636
-205
+585
1
1		-1.64979-1.59475-1.40915
Angers
Reims		23.6%
48.2%		28.2%
+677
-267
+615
-225
2
2		-1.77892-1.56576-1.26606
Toulouse
Nice		8.6%
76.1%		15.3%
+264
+101
+265
-110
0
0		-1.39308-1.42341-1.87915
Marseille
Lille		23.3%
51.1%		25.6%
+161
+177
+155
+165
1
2		-1.04358-1.02449-0.67231
Montpellier
Nantes		37.3%
32.8%		29.9%
+255
+118
+240
+110
3
0		-1.28880-1.27447-0.98669
Monaco
Lyon		20.7%
57.4%		21.9%
+178
+140
+170
+135
1
3		-0.89789-0.90231-0.55546
Angers
Marseille		19.7%
56.4%		23.9%
+1729
-590
+1600
-700
1
3		-0.17531-0.18372-0.57277
Lille
Monaco		50.7%
25.2%		24.1%
+143
+194
+135
+190
0
0		-1.33598-1.32795-1.42225
Nantes
Toulouse		69.0%
11.3%		19.6%
+223
+125
+205
+120
0
0		-1.33632-1.35969-1.62791
Troyes
Rennes		12.5%
66.2%		21.2%
+1373
-515
+1175
-550
0
4		-0.20361-0.21850-0.41187
Lorient
Montpellier		20.2%
54.3%		25.5%
+320
-106
+310
-120
1
1		-1.32904-1.38617-1.36814
Nice
Strasbourg		26.7%
47.7%		25.6%
+200
+156
+195
+140
0
2		-0.95792-0.92402-0.73946
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.42796 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.47392 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.81814
-0.39018
-0.34422

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.