France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Marseille
Nantes 		44.9%
27.1%		28.0%
-155
+420

1.32
0.95		2.27
o2¾-120
u3-122

Lorient
Paris Saint-Germain 		2.5%
90.6%		6.9%
+900
-405

0.50
3.46		3.96
o3½-104
u3½-115

Monaco
Metz 		42.9%
30.5%		26.6%
-231
+600

1.39
1.13		2.52
o3½+100
u3½-120

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lyon
Nice		58.0%
19.9%		22.0%
+245
+115
+265
+100
2
0		-1.27286-1.34519-0.54404
Strasbourg
Nantes		35.8%
34.4%		29.8%
+140
+206
+140
+195
1
0		-0.90825-0.92402-1.02591
Angers
Brest		33.8%
38.2%		28.1%
+467
-145
+465
-140
0
2		-0.55208-0.56563-0.96299
Montpellier
Lille		18.3%
58.3%		23.5%
+700
-240
+700
-260
0
1		-0.37872-0.37545-0.53998
Paris Saint-Germain
Rennes		83.7%
5.1%		11.2%
-144
+390
-150
+385
4
1		-0.56196-0.55970-0.17797
Monaco
Toulouse		77.5%
8.2%		14.3%
+123
+227
+120
+220
1
1		-1.31245-1.30420-1.94275
Nantes
Marseille		20.9%
53.5%		25.5%
+810
-290
+725
-290
0
2		-0.32781-0.34670-0.62459
Rennes
Montpellier		31.2%
39.1%		29.7%
+100
+295
+100
+275
4
0		-0.72741-0.74421-1.16533
Toulouse
Angers		8.7%
75.0%		16.2%
+110
+300
+115
+300
4
0		-0.77074-0.79270-2.43657
Brest
Lyon		13.6%
67.0%		19.3%
+380
-136
+380
-145
1
2		-0.57928-0.57346-0.39975
Lille
Paris Saint-Germain		7.3%
79.4%		13.3%
+840
-307
+735
-280
1
4		-0.31745-0.35491-0.23043
Nice
Saint-Etienne		35.5%
37.4%		27.1%
-160
+437
-160
+400
3
1		-0.52015-0.53495-1.03665
Reims
Monaco		32.2%
39.0%		28.8%
+765
-280
+850
-320
0
3		-0.33593-0.32135-0.94253
Paris Saint-Germain
Lyon		76.2%
9.1%		14.8%
-193
+495
-180
+475
3
2		-0.45199-0.46876-0.27244
Montpellier
Nice		40.3%
32.1%		27.5%
+800
-290
+740
-295
0
2		-0.32899-0.34172-1.13494
Brest
Strasbourg		24.9%
48.7%		26.4%
+255
+118
+260
+110
0
0		-1.25773-1.27072-1.33237
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.