France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Strasbourg
Lille 		17.2%
60.2%		22.5%
+435
-150
+390
-145
0.86
1.82		2.68
o2½-122
u2½+106
o2½-120
u2½+100
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims 		81.0%
5.6%		13.3%
-215
+600
-230
+590
2.53
0.52		3.05
o3-123
u3+103
o3-120
u3+100
Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 22, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Reims
Lens		52.3%
20.1%		27.6%
+472
-165
+475
-195
1
2		-0.48854-0.46498-1.60385
Paris Saint-Germain
Troyes		91.0%
2.3%		6.7%

-400
+900
3
1		-0.27338-0.09389
Montpellier
Lyon		20.0%
56.1%		23.9%
+392
-141
+375
-150
4
5		-0.55670-0.56103-0.57748
Strasbourg
Nantes		35.8%
34.4%		29.8%
+184
+182
+160
+185
2
0		-1.06285-1.00709-1.02591
Brest
Lorient		35.6%
34.8%		29.6%
+201
+163
+200
+135
1
2		-0.99163-0.90604-1.05501
Monaco
Angers		42.3%
31.9%		25.8%
-166
+465
-175
+460
2
1		-0.49944-0.48379-0.85979
Marseille
Lens		60.5%
16.6%		22.9%
+206
+147
+190
+140
1
2		-0.92143-0.92553-1.79721
Lille
Reims		46.4%
24.7%		28.9%
-100
+277
+105
+245
0
1		-1.34788-1.28870-1.39812
Rennes
Nice		40.0%
32.4%		27.6%
+183
+165
+185
+145
1
2		-0.99085-0.94788-1.12655
Nantes
Brest		34.8%
35.7%		29.6%
+232
+152
+215
+145
0
2		-0.93961-0.94317-1.03092
Lens
Toulouse		55.4%
19.6%		25.1%
-157
+437
-160
+390
1
0		-0.51443-0.53623-0.59083
Lorient
Paris Saint-Germain		2.5%
90.6%		6.9%

+1150
-625
3
1		-2.57755-3.68290
Nice
Troyes		52.6%
22.5%		25.0%
-145
+438
-135
+350
1
0		-0.55003-0.60605-0.64308
Angers
Rennes		25.2%
48.3%		26.5%
+1000
-324
+900
-350
2
4		-0.29465-0.30028-0.72853
Montpellier
Monaco		31.8%
41.5%		26.7%
+510
-183
+470
-205
4
0		-1.83590-1.79084-1.14621
Lyon
Strasbourg		49.3%
24.9%		25.7%
+173
+170
+170
+170
2
1		-1.03131-1.03176-0.70648
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.42796 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.47392 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.81814
-0.39018
-0.34422

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.