France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Strasbourg
Lille 		17.2%
60.2%		22.5%
+438
-155
+390
-145
0.86
1.82		2.68
o2½-122
u2¾-118
o2½-120
u2½+100
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims 		81.0%
5.6%		13.3%
-215
+600
-230
+590
2.53
0.52		3.05
o3-123
u3+103
o3-120
u3+100
Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 22, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Marseille
Lyon		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+181
+165
+165
+165
2
1		-1.05194-1.02223-1.37078
Rennes
Montpellier		31.2%
39.1%		29.7%
+141
+229
+125
+225
0
1		-1.20381-1.22806-0.93785
Troyes
Nantes		15.8%
60.5%		23.7%
+600
-194
+530
-200
2
2		-1.54595-1.53294-1.44151
Toulouse
Lorient		11.3%
69.0%		19.7%
+184
+159
+185
+140
1
0		-1.06352-1.09919-2.17993
Strasbourg
Reims		28.3%
40.6%		31.0%
+238
+127
+265
+100
2
0		-1.23974-1.34519-1.26061
Monaco
Lens		56.3%
20.8%		22.9%
+251
+115
+240
+110
0
3		-0.78555-0.79264-1.57036
Paris Saint-Germain
Angers		87.6%
3.7%		8.7%

-550
+1400
2
1		-0.21567-0.13243
Troyes
Marseille		9.4%
72.4%		18.2%
+1368
-450
+1150
-500
1
3		-0.22726-0.23231-0.32338
Lorient
Monaco		19.7%
57.7%		22.6%
+885
-310
+800
-310
1
3		-0.29961-0.31987-0.55061
Nice
Brest		34.2%
38.6%		27.1%
+203
+165
+190
+150
0
1		-0.98953-0.96748-0.95099
Montpellier
Lille		18.3%
58.3%		23.5%
+535
-183
+480
-190
1
2		-0.45271-0.47383-0.53998
Lens
Paris Saint-Germain		2.1%
91.7%		6.1%

+340
-135
1
3		-0.60475-0.08648
Reims
Rennes		31.7%
35.8%		32.5%
+237
+125
+225
+120
0
3		-0.83748-0.83924-1.02680
Lyon
Toulouse		83.8%
4.9%		11.3%
+111
+250
+105
+230
2
1		-0.76522-0.76718-0.17637
Marseille
Lorient		53.4%
21.0%		25.6%
-175
+503
-185
+475
0
0		-1.52823-1.53067-1.36352
Monaco
Nantes		39.7%
33.2%		27.1%
-104
+300
-105
+280
2
2		-1.38661-1.34289-1.30424
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.42796 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.47392 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.81814
-0.39018
-0.34422

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.