France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Marseille
Nantes 		44.9%
27.1%		28.0%
-155
+420

1.32
0.95		2.27
o2¾-120
u3-122

Lorient
Paris Saint-Germain 		2.5%
90.6%		6.9%
+900
-405

0.50
3.46		3.96
o3½-104
u3½-115

Monaco
Metz 		42.9%
30.5%		26.6%
-231
+600

1.39
1.13		2.52
o3½+100
u3½-120

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Angers
Saint-Etienne		35.0%
37.0%		28.0%
+190
+154
+190
+150
3
3		-1.25590-1.24067-1.27140
Monaco
Lille		18.8%
59.7%		21.4%
+198
+142
+210
+125
1
2		-0.91001-0.85849-0.51507
Reims
Rennes		31.7%
35.8%		32.5%
+235
+125
+240
+125
0
1		-0.84567-0.84735-1.02680
Lille
Rennes		49.9%
23.9%		26.2%
+152
+210
+150
+200
2
0		-0.95852-0.96582-0.69497
Angers
Reims		23.6%
48.2%		28.2%
+345
-108
+320
-110
1
0		-1.52698-1.48554-1.44447
Lyon
Montpellier		47.3%
26.2%		26.5%
-173
+445
-180
+435
4
1		-0.48569-0.49253-0.74851
Paris Saint-Germain
Toulouse		92.7%
1.7%		5.6%
-188
+520
-200
+510
1
0		-0.46121-0.45462-0.07535
Nantes
Monaco		26.1%
48.8%		25.2%
+530
-195
+525
-200
1
7		-0.44597-0.45319-0.71808
Saint-Etienne
Marseille		17.7%
59.6%		22.7%
+1100
-430
+1050
-460
1
5		-0.24397-0.24669-0.51693
Marseille
Angers		47.6%
25.9%		26.5%
-162
+462
-180
+500
2
0		-0.51453-0.49109-0.74227
Montpellier
Strasbourg		33.0%
37.4%		29.6%
+410
-145
+355
-145
0
2		-0.55584-0.59034-0.98283
Reims
Lyon		20.8%
52.8%		26.5%
+510
-187
+500
-200
0
4		-0.45624-0.45495-0.63881
Rennes
Saint-Etienne		42.7%
29.4%		28.0%
+130
+218
+130
+235
2
0		-0.86185-0.85996-0.85200
Monaco
Paris Saint-Germain		3.7%
88.3%		8.0%
+485
-215
+550
-240
1
4		-0.41726-0.39730-0.12474
Brest
Nantes		28.8%
43.2%		27.9%
+208
+150
+200
+145
2
0		-1.15862-1.14662-1.24396
Lyon
Marseille		39.8%
32.3%		27.9%
+260
+105
+265
+100
2
3		-0.74959-0.74360-1.13097
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.