France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 19 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
02/23/2025 04:15 PM	Brest Strasbourg	24.9% 48.7%	26.4%	+255 +118 +260 +110	0 0	-1.25773-1.27072	-1.33237
02/22/2025 06:00 PM	Angers Saint-Etienne	35.0% 37.0%	28.0%	+190 +154 +190 +150	3 3	-1.25590-1.24067	-1.27140
02/22/2025 04:00 PM	Monaco Lille	18.8% 59.7%	21.4%	+198 +142 +210 +125	1 2	-0.91001-0.85849	-0.51507
02/21/2025 07:45 PM	Reims Rennes	31.7% 35.8%	32.5%	+235 +125 +240 +125	0 1	-0.84567-0.84735	-1.02680
02/16/2025 07:45 PM	Lille Rennes	49.9% 23.9%	26.2%	+152 +210 +150 +200	2 0	-0.95852-0.96582	-0.69497
02/16/2025 04:15 PM	Angers Reims	23.6% 48.2%	28.2%	+345 -108 +320 -110	1 0	-1.52698-1.48554	-1.44447
02/16/2025 02:00 PM	Lyon Montpellier	47.3% 26.2%	26.5%	-173 +445 -180 +435	4 1	-0.48569-0.49253	-0.74851
02/15/2025 08:05 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Toulouse	92.7% 1.7%	5.6%	-188 +520 -200 +510	1 0	-0.46121-0.45462	-0.07535
02/15/2025 06:00 PM	Nantes Monaco	26.1% 48.8%	25.2%	+530 -195 +525 -200	1 7	-0.44597-0.45319	-0.71808
02/15/2025 04:00 PM	Saint-Etienne Marseille	17.7% 59.6%	22.7%	+1100 -430 +1050 -460	1 5	-0.24397-0.24669	-0.51693
02/09/2025 07:45 PM	Marseille Angers	47.6% 25.9%	26.5%	-162 +462 -180 +500	2 0	-0.51453-0.49109	-0.74227
02/09/2025 04:15 PM	Montpellier Strasbourg	33.0% 37.4%	29.6%	+410 -145 +355 -145	0 2	-0.55584-0.59034	-0.98283
02/09/2025 02:00 PM	Reims Lyon	20.8% 52.8%	26.5%	+510 -187 +500 -200	0 4	-0.45624-0.45495	-0.63881
02/08/2025 08:05 PM	Rennes Saint-Etienne	42.7% 29.4%	28.0%	+130 +218 +130 +235	2 0	-0.86185-0.85996	-0.85200
02/07/2025 08:05 PM	Monaco Paris Saint-Germain	3.7% 88.3%	8.0%	+485 -215 +550 -240	1 4	-0.41726-0.39730	-0.12474
02/07/2025 06:00 PM	Brest Nantes	28.8% 43.2%	27.9%	+208 +150 +200 +145	2 0	-1.15862-1.14662	-1.24396

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.