France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Strasbourg
Lille 		17.2%
60.2%		22.5%
+438
-155
+390
-145
0.86
1.82		2.68
o2½-122
u2¾-118
o2½-120
u2½+100
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims 		81.0%
5.6%		13.3%
-215
+600
-230
+590
2.53
0.52		3.05
o3-123
u3+103
o3-120
u3+100
Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 22, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brest
Reims		22.2%
49.7%		28.1%
+471
-152
+435
-160
1
1		-1.43297-1.43729-1.27050
Toulouse
Montpellier		6.5%
79.0%		14.5%
+279
+100
+265
+100
2
1		-1.35569-1.34155-2.73908
Rennes
Lyon		19.8%
56.4%		23.8%
+231
+128
+225
+120
1
3		-0.84248-0.83924-0.57286
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%

-115
+310
2
0		-0.67360-0.12528
Lille
Angers		59.5%
18.1%		22.4%
-255
+750
-260
+675
0
1		-2.16613-2.09964-1.70837
Strasbourg
Lens		51.5%
22.5%		26.0%
+573
-186
+550
-185
1
2		-0.45612-0.47239-1.49192
Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain		6.5%
81.3%		12.2%

+550
-240
1
0		-1.92080-2.73229
Strasbourg
Monaco		30.4%
43.5%		26.1%
+520
-172
+490
-185
3
4		-0.47454-0.48204-0.83133
Nice
Angers		32.7%
40.7%		26.6%
-145
+482
-145
+470
1
1		-1.38470-1.31476-1.32403
Toulouse
Brest		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+165
+177
+160
+165
1
3		-1.03950-1.02510-0.30791
Reims
Nantes		37.2%
30.7%		32.1%
+118
+263
+125
+225
3
0		-0.79902-0.86034-0.98980
Lorient
Lille		10.5%
71.6%		17.9%
+700
-255
+665
-270
1
3		-0.35250-0.36475-0.33381
Lens
Rennes		16.1%
60.9%		23.0%
+163
+208
+155
+185
1
0		-0.98714-0.98556-1.82468
Montpellier
Marseille		25.8%
46.5%		27.6%

+450
-245
1
1		-1.56676-1.28649
Montpellier
Marseille		25.8%
46.5%		27.6%
+530
-184
+490
-180
1
1		-1.53252-1.51154-1.28649
Marseille
Reims		35.3%
32.4%		32.3%
+141
+209
+140
+200
2
1		-0.90684-0.92284-1.04245
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.42796 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.47392 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.81814
-0.39018
-0.34422

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.