France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Strasbourg
Lille 		17.2%
60.2%		22.5%
+495
-173
+475
-170
0.86
1.82		2.68
o2¾-105
u2¾-113
o2½-130
u2½+110
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims 		81.0%
5.6%		13.3%
-215
+600
-230
+590
2.53
0.52		3.05
o3-123
u3+103
o3-125
u3+105
Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 22, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rennes
Paris Saint-Germain		3.8%
86.8%		9.3%

+465
-190
2
0		-1.78005-3.26335
Brest
Troyes		49.3%
23.6%		27.0%
+148
+213
+145
+200
2
2		-1.22997-1.22670-1.30822
Lorient
Nice		26.9%
47.1%		26.0%
+485
-149
+460
-160
1
1		-1.40544-1.41014-1.34811
Angers
Lens		44.9%
28.0%		27.1%
+1208
-418
+1200
-500
0
3		-0.23846-0.23408-1.27450
Lille
Toulouse		84.4%
4.5%		11.1%
+103
+264
+100
+260
2
0		-0.73151-0.74360-0.16953
Nantes
Lyon		15.7%
62.9%		21.4%
+456
-158
+460
-175
1
1		-1.46681-1.49593-1.54103
Strasbourg
Marseille		24.6%
48.6%		26.8%
+759
-240
+700
-250
2
2		-1.62020-1.60674-1.31531
Reims
Monaco		32.2%
39.0%		28.8%
+315
-108
+320
-120
1
0		-1.44286-1.48408-1.13283
Nice
Nantes		30.7%
42.1%		27.2%
+169
+194
+155
+195
2
2		-1.18725-1.19485-1.30243
Troyes
Lorient		20.9%
52.4%		26.7%
+390
-129
+360
-130
0
2		-0.60068-0.62207-0.64560
Toulouse
Angers		8.7%
75.0%		16.2%
+103
+295
-105
+275
2
0		-0.72759-0.72054-2.43657
Paris Saint-Germain
Brest		87.9%
3.6%		8.5%

-240
+600
2
1		-0.39782-0.12886
Lyon
Lille		30.2%
43.0%		26.8%
+325
-114
+325
-125
3
3		-1.38894-1.39744-1.31822
Marseille
Rennes		38.2%
32.1%		29.6%
+145
+200
+140
+195
1
0		-0.93107-0.91997-0.96215
Lorient
Lyon		11.5%
70.1%		18.4%
+490
-175
+450
-175
0
0		-1.51422-1.50810-1.69489
Brest
Strasbourg		24.9%
48.7%		26.4%
+330
+104
+315
+100
1
0		-1.48589-1.47521-1.38990
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.42796 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.47392 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.81814
-0.39018
-0.34422

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.