France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims 		81.0%
5.6%		13.3%
-237
+655
-250
+650
2.53
0.52		3.05
o3¼+102
u3¼-122
o3-125
u3+105
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Games for Sep 22, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brest
Strasbourg		24.9%
48.7%		26.4%
+330
+104
+315
+100
1
0		-1.48589-1.47521-1.38990
Angers
Montpellier		25.0%
48.6%		26.4%
+410
-130
+380
-130
0
5		-0.60521-0.62060-0.72218
Monaco
Troyes		62.7%
16.1%		21.2%
-202
+565
-210
+525
2
2		-1.61229-1.58802-1.55202
Nantes
Paris Saint-Germain		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%

+1100
-400
2
4		-0.27194-0.11935
Lille
Lens		70.7%
11.0%		18.2%
+198
+148
+200
+145
1
1		-1.25618-1.22670-1.70375
Paris Saint-Germain
Marseille		80.3%
6.7%		13.0%

+140
+175
3
0		-0.92480-0.21957
Nice
Monaco		24.8%
52.2%		23.0%
+285
+105
+270
+100
3
0		-1.37690-1.35899-1.39364
Toulouse
Reims		6.4%
77.2%		16.4%
+270
+110
+255
+110
0
3		-0.76893-0.79264-0.25886
Rennes
Nantes		37.0%
33.0%		30.0%
+123
+258
+120
+240
1
0		-0.83683-0.83884-0.99441
Lens
Montpellier		15.9%
61.3%		22.7%
-119
+370
-125
+365
1
1		-1.32441-1.32818-1.48188
Lyon
Angers		57.3%
19.8%		22.9%
-123
+370
-120
+340
3
1		-0.61552-0.65541-0.55752
Brest
Lille		12.4%
68.6%		19.0%
+900
-290
+775
-275
1
2		-0.32464-0.36057-0.37641
Marseille
Toulouse		78.7%
6.7%		14.6%
+101
+279
-115
+300
3
2		-0.71968-0.67598-0.23951
Nantes
Lens		46.1%
26.2%		27.7%
+675
-188
+650
-210
1
3		-0.44079-0.43989-1.33930
Montpellier
Troyes		59.0%
16.7%		24.3%
+137
+239
+120
+240
1
0		-0.87822-0.83884-0.52756
Monaco
Brest		44.1%
30.2%		25.7%
-118
+350
-125
+345
2
1		-0.63288-0.63709-0.81821
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.96016 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.97490 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.15386
-0.19369
-0.17896

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.