France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Nantes
Angers 		33.5%
37.7%		28.8%
+138
+231
+135
+225
1.08
1.16		2.24
o2¼-102
u2¼-115
o2-145
u2+125
Toulouse
Brest 		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+247
+113
+245
+110
0.67
2.25		2.92
o2½-102
u2½-112
o2½+100
u2½-120
Marseille
Lyon 		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+125
+200
+120
+195
1.01
1.51		2.52
o3-105
u3-106
o3-115
u3-105
Games for Sep 21, 2024
Games for Sep 23, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims 		81.0%
5.6%		13.3%
-255
+695
-250
+650
3.05
o3¼-105
u3¼-115
o3-125
u3+105
TIME
HALF		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lille
Paris Saint-Germain		7.3%
79.4%		13.3%

+410
-165
3
4		-0.52379-0.23043
Angers
Strasbourg		26.4%
47.1%		26.5%
+366
-108
+345
-115
1
2		-0.67718-0.67399-0.75373
Lens
Lyon		8.8%
75.5%		15.7%
+196
+161
+185
+150
1
2		-0.97864-0.96451-0.28071
Lorient
Nantes		25.0%
47.4%		27.6%
+308
+101
+295
+100
0
1		-0.71458-0.74354-0.74712
Troyes
Reims		11.9%
64.8%		23.3%
+520
-178
+515
-190
0
4		-0.46935-0.47456-0.43393
Brest
Montpellier		23.6%
50.2%		26.2%
+230
+141
+215
+130
0
3		-0.89771-0.88242-0.68953
Strasbourg
Lille		17.2%
60.2%		22.5%
+675
-224
+625
-225
0
2		-0.39246-0.41885-0.50667
Rennes
Toulouse		73.8%
8.9%		17.3%
+156
+201
+145
+195
1
3		-1.11456-1.13075-2.41811
Paris Saint-Germain
Monaco		85.2%
5.0%		9.7%

+200
+135
1
3		-0.90199-2.99274
Nice
Marseille		19.8%
57.2%		22.9%
+465
-144
+420
-145
3
1		-1.75175-1.69821-1.62004
Lens
Brest		22.8%
51.6%		25.6%
-113
+358
-125
+365
1
1		-1.33716-1.32818-1.36090
Montpellier
Strasbourg		33.0%
37.4%		29.6%
+291
+115
+290
+105
0
2		-0.78034-0.76845-0.98283
Angers
Lorient		37.6%
33.5%		28.8%
+348
+102
+295
-105
0
0		-1.28096-1.30258-1.24361
Lille
Rennes		49.9%
23.9%		26.2%
+224
+145
+210
+135
3
1		-1.19076-1.18127-0.69497
Lyon
Troyes		73.6%
9.3%		17.0%
-156
+440
-160
+415
3
1		-0.51691-0.53479-0.30629
Toulouse
Paris Saint-Germain		1.5%
93.1%		5.3%

+575
-250
1
2		-0.38632-0.07120
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.49237 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.47587 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.48957
0.00280
-0.01370

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.