France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 19 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
12/15/2024 04:00 PM	Angers Rennes	25.2% 48.3%	26.5%	+530 -162 +500 -170	0 2	-0.50745-0.51089	-0.72853
12/15/2024 04:00 PM	Nantes Brest	34.8% 35.7%	29.6%	+260 +130 +225 +145	1 4	-0.85767-0.94410	-1.03092
12/15/2024 02:00 PM	Nice Montpellier	25.2% 49.3%	25.5%	+140 +187 +130 +200	2 2	-1.36285-1.30523	-1.36743
12/14/2024 08:00 PM	Monaco Reims	31.4% 39.8%	28.8%	+126 +240 +100 +265	0 0	-1.27482-1.33139	-1.24618
12/14/2024 04:00 PM	Lille Marseille	42.2% 30.0%	27.8%	+277 +108 +245 +115	1 1	-1.29430-1.27168	-1.27880
12/13/2024 07:45 PM	Saint-Etienne Toulouse	66.0% 13.6%	20.4%	+815 -240 +800 -275	1 2	-0.36337-0.36159	-1.99724
12/08/2024 07:45 PM	Marseille Saint-Etienne	51.0% 23.5%	25.5%	-172 +490 -185 +600	2 0	-0.49213-0.44870	-0.67342
12/08/2024 04:00 PM	Rennes Nantes	37.0% 33.0%	30.0%	+148 +235 +130 +240	0 1	-1.23299-1.27397	-1.10736
12/08/2024 04:00 PM	Reims Strasbourg	32.9% 34.8%	32.3%	+192 +148 +175 +155	0 0	-1.27329-1.28302	-1.13131
12/07/2024 08:00 PM	Lyon Angers	57.3% 19.8%	22.9%	-158 +425 -160 +420	3 0	-0.52520-0.53582	-0.55752
12/07/2024 04:00 PM	Toulouse Monaco	5.9% 82.3%	11.8%	+335 -113 +330 -125	0 2	-0.65720-0.63779	-0.19539
12/06/2024 06:00 PM	Brest Lille	12.4% 68.6%	19.0%	+510 -155 +450 -150	1 3	-0.53219-0.56161	-0.37641
12/01/2024 07:45 PM	Monaco Marseille	27.1% 47.7%	25.1%	+172 +162 +160 +165	1 2	-0.99682-1.02115	-0.74005
12/01/2024 04:00 PM	Nice Lyon	14.5% 66.4%	19.0%	+355 -133 +320 -130	1 4	-0.57839-0.61954	-0.40931
12/01/2024 02:00 PM	Lille Montpellier	49.6% 24.1%	26.2%	-117 +358 -140 +410	2 2	-1.33575-1.35681	-1.33811
11/30/2024 08:00 PM	Nantes Paris Saint-Germain	3.1% 88.8%	8.1%	+1500 -575 +1350 -550	1 1	-2.14515-2.04462	-2.51257

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.