France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Nantes
Angers 		33.5%
37.7%		28.8%
+138
+231
+135
+225
1.08
1.16		2.24
o2¼-102
u2¼-115
o2-145
u2+125
Toulouse
Brest 		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+247
+113
+245
+110
0.67
2.25		2.92
o2½-102
u2½-112
o2½+100
u2½-120
Marseille
Lyon 		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+125
+200
+120
+195
1.01
1.51		2.52
o3-105
u3-106
o3-115
u3-105
Games for Sep 21, 2024
Games for Sep 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Toulouse
Paris Saint-Germain		1.5%
93.1%		5.3%

+575
-250
1
2		-0.38632-0.07120
Strasbourg
Rennes		30.5%
40.5%		29.0%
+604
-175
+530
-180
0
3		-0.46837-0.49213-0.90365
Nice
Lens		45.7%
28.2%		26.1%
+457
-125
+440
-135
1
0		-1.73721-1.73472-0.78309
Brest
Lyon		13.6%
67.0%		19.3%
+510
-185
+500
-190
0
0		-1.55604-1.54721-1.64434
Paris Saint-Germain
Montpellier		83.6%
5.1%		11.3%

-330
+750
3
1		-0.31516-0.17902
Lorient
Reims		19.1%
53.4%		27.4%
+375
-121
+350
-125
2
4		-0.61869-0.63824-0.62736
Marseille
Nantes		44.9%
27.1%		28.0%
-129
+420
-140
+390
2
0		-0.58917-0.58834-0.80162
Reims
Paris Saint-Germain		4.2%
84.5%		11.2%
+900
-400
+1000
-420
1
1		-1.92422-1.92292-2.18774
Angers
Brest		33.8%
38.2%		28.1%
+270
+123
+255
+110
0
4		-0.82082-0.79264-0.96299
Toulouse
Strasbourg		6.8%
78.5%		14.7%
+215
+148
+195
+145
2
1		-1.15379-1.12646-2.68370
Lille
Nice		60.3%
18.1%		21.5%
+150
+220
+135
+215
0
1		-1.17857-1.19683-1.70722
Monaco
Marseille		27.1%
47.7%		25.1%
+275
+103
+275
+100
1
1		-1.35720-1.31420-1.38071
Lens
Troyes		37.2%
32.3%		30.5%
-168
+514
-170
+500
1
1		-1.47709-1.42205-1.18744
Rennes
Lorient		45.4%
26.5%		28.1%
+105
+322
-105
+295
1
2		-1.46024-1.42354-1.32772
Paris Saint-Germain
Rennes		83.7%
5.1%		11.2%
-153
+430
-170
+430
0
1		-1.69876-1.71730-2.97966
Brest
Toulouse		66.9%
12.9%		20.1%
+330
-112
+325
-120
1
1		-1.36649-1.35810-1.60336
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.59075 
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.55778 
DRatings20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.75274
-0.16198
-0.19496

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.