France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 19 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
11/02/2024 08:00 PM	Strasbourg Saint-Etienne	41.4% 30.6%	27.9%	+110 +255 +105 +260	0 2	-1.29120-1.32336	-1.18277
11/02/2024 06:00 PM	Nice Brest	34.2% 38.6%	27.1%	+163 +200 +165 +195	1 0	-0.99271-1.02304	-1.07254
11/01/2024 08:00 PM	Lyon Lille	30.2% 43.0%	26.8%	+210 +125 +210 +120	1 1	-1.36473-1.34458	-1.31822
11/01/2024 06:00 PM	Angers Monaco	24.7% 51.6%	23.7%	+1075 -400 +1100 -475	1 0	-2.49241-2.53591	-1.39918
10/27/2024 07:45 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Marseille	80.3% 6.7%	13.0%	-120 +320 -125 +310	3 0	-0.64097-0.63605	-0.21957
10/27/2024 04:00 PM	Monaco Nice	42.8% 32.2%	25.0%	-104 +308 +105 +260	1 2	-1.42745-1.33094	-1.13336
10/27/2024 04:00 PM	Toulouse Montpellier	6.5% 79.0%	14.5%	+116 +235 +110 +235	3 0	-0.79786-0.78946	-2.73908
10/27/2024 04:00 PM	Nantes Strasbourg	27.6% 44.3%	28.0%	+310 -104 +310 -110	1 3	-0.70473-0.69485	-0.81340
10/26/2024 05:00 PM	Brest Reims	22.2% 49.7%	28.1%	+360 -115 +340 -105	2 1	-1.55566-1.51054	-1.50283
10/26/2024 03:00 PM	Saint-Etienne Angers	29.6% 43.4%	26.9%	+235 +129 +230 +125	2 4	-0.84924-0.86022	-0.83361
10/20/2024 06:45 PM	Marseille Montpellier	37.9% 32.4%	29.6%	-140 +395 -135 +335	5 0	-0.56219-0.60431	-0.96914
10/20/2024 03:00 PM	Angers Toulouse	68.7% 12.1%	19.2%	+680 -192 +650 -205	1 1	-1.49455-1.45917	-1.65078
10/20/2024 03:00 PM	Nice Nantes	30.7% 42.1%	27.2%	+170 +194 +170 +200	1 1	-1.19670-1.14624	-1.30243
10/19/2024 07:00 PM	Strasbourg Paris Saint-Germain	3.6% 87.5%	8.8%	+930 -350 +850 -365	2 4	-0.28559-0.29113	-0.13323
10/19/2024 03:00 PM	Rennes Brest	41.1% 30.3%	28.5%	+182 +170 +180 +170	1 1	-1.22156-1.18026	-1.25439
10/18/2024 06:45 PM	Lille Monaco	50.7% 25.2%	24.1%	+258 +109 +295 -110	0 0	-1.34592-1.34442	-1.42225

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.