France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Nantes
Angers 		33.5%
37.7%		28.8%
+138
+231
+135
+225
1.08
1.16		2.24
o2¼-102
u2¼-115
o2-145
u2+125
Toulouse
Brest 		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+247
+113
+245
+110
0.67
2.25		2.92
o2½-102
u2½-112
o2½+100
u2½-120
Marseille
Lyon 		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+125
+200
+120
+195
1.01
1.51		2.52
o3-105
u3-106
o3-115
u3-105
Games for Sep 21, 2024
Games for Sep 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nice
Reims		23.8%
49.1%		27.0%
+213
+153
+195
+150
0
0		-1.20728-1.21335-1.30856
Nantes
Montpellier		26.2%
45.8%		28.0%
+217
+147
+195
+140
3
0		-1.16806-1.13457-1.33888
Troyes
Lille		6.3%
79.8%		14.0%
+660
-205
+620
-225
1
5		-0.41819-0.41977-0.22607
Strasbourg
Lyon		18.8%
58.1%		23.0%
+463
-160
+450
-165
2
1		-1.74320-1.75198-1.66967
Lorient
Marseille		15.7%
61.7%		22.6%
+650
-217
+675
-260
1
3		-0.39672-0.37541-0.48347
Marseille
Troyes		65.9%
12.9%		21.3%
-139
+433
-150
+425
2
0		-0.56040-0.55982-0.41762
Lens
Strasbourg		16.9%
59.9%		23.1%
+115
+290
+105
+280
2
2		-1.27422-1.25727-1.46434
Angers
Paris Saint-Germain		2.9%
89.8%		7.2%
+1831
-488
+1500
-600
0
2		-0.16646-0.20168-0.10714
Monaco
Lorient		48.7%
26.1%		25.2%
-117
+357
-125
+320
2
2		-1.39429-1.40985-1.37749
Montpellier
Nice		40.3%
32.1%		27.5%
+350
-110
+330
-115
1
6		-0.65855-0.67368-1.13494
Lyon
Nantes		54.5%
21.1%		24.4%
+115
+271
+100
+280
0
0		-1.32501-1.30048-1.41104
Lille
Brest		61.0%
17.0%		22.1%
-111
+347
-115
+320
0
0		-1.33808-1.33044-1.51140
Marseille
Monaco		38.6%
34.4%		27.0%
+209
+140
+195
+135
3
2		-1.14608-1.13082-0.95132
Lorient
Strasbourg		21.4%
52.9%		25.6%
+216
+139
+205
+135
1
1		-1.27107-1.25956-1.36145
Reims
Montpellier		31.4%
36.1%		32.5%
+159
+193
+160
+170
1
1		-1.23454-1.26107-1.12507
Troyes
Brest		18.0%
57.8%		24.2%
+272
+110
+255
+105
1
2		-0.75854-0.76776-0.54799
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.59075 
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.55778 
DRatings20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.75274
-0.16198
-0.19496

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.