France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Nantes
Angers 		33.5%
37.7%		28.8%
+138
+231
+135
+225
1.08
1.16		2.24
o2¼-102
u2¼-115
o2-145
u2+125
Toulouse
Brest 		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+240
+115
+245
+110
0.67
2.25		2.92
o2½-102
u2½-112
o2½+100
u2½-120
Marseille
Lyon 		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+125
+200
+120
+195
1.01
1.51		2.52
o3-112
u3-106
o3-115
u3-105
Games for Sep 21, 2024
Games for Sep 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Angers
Lille		13.3%
67.4%		19.3%
+1031
-325
+900
-330
0
1		-0.28598-0.31437-0.39421
Toulouse
Rennes		6.5%
78.9%		14.6%
+460
-160
+470
-180
1
2		-0.51116-0.49143-0.23737
Nice
Lyon		14.5%
66.4%		19.0%
+398
-128
+370
-140
1
1		-1.36979-1.41215-1.65926
Lyon
Marseille		39.8%
32.3%		27.9%
+264
+112
+260
+105
0
1		-0.77457-0.76787-1.13097
Rennes
Lille		18.1%
58.5%		23.4%
+283
+110
+260
+105
1
1		-1.28576-1.30280-1.45235
Brest
Nice		30.9%
42.5%		26.5%
+357
-115
+340
-125
0
1		-0.64798-0.63951-0.85475
Monaco
Toulouse		77.5%
8.2%		14.3%
+122
+225
+110
+220
2
0		-0.81656-0.79248-0.25506
Nantes
Reims		24.6%
45.3%		30.0%
+253
+120
+240
+115
0
1		-0.80937-0.81744-0.79147
Paris Saint-Germain
Lorient		88.7%
3.1%		8.1%
-280
+800
-300
+765
2
1		-0.32881-0.33724-0.11991
Lens
Angers		21.5%
53.8%		24.6%
-152
+484
-160
+435
2
1		-0.52845-0.53649-1.53609
Monaco
Lille		18.8%
59.7%		21.4%
+170
+162
+180
+145
3
4		-0.98313-0.94585-0.51507
Nantes
Nice		33.9%
38.3%		27.8%
+286
+111
+295
+100
1
1		-1.24420-1.25931-1.28039
Lorient
Troyes		43.9%
26.9%		29.2%
+192
+160
+190
+140
2
2		-1.24894-1.28844-1.23158
Strasbourg
Toulouse		73.2%
9.3%		17.4%
+226
+126
+210
+125
2
2		-1.32366-1.30416-1.74703
Rennes
Angers		39.5%
32.0%		28.5%
-168
+497
-155
+410
2
1		-0.48944-0.55036-0.92938
Lens
Marseille		12.2%
68.1%		19.7%
+245
+128
+225
+120
1
0		-1.25569-1.22946-2.10603
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.59075 
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.55778 
DRatings20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.75274
-0.16198
-0.19496

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.