France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 19 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
10/06/2024 06:45 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Nice	88.2% 3.7%	8.1%	-167 +470 -165 +440	1 1	-1.48250-1.46145	-2.51294
10/06/2024 03:00 PM	Montpellier Reims	29.4% 38.7%	31.8%	+425 -152 +385 -150	2 4	-0.53144-0.55970	-0.94954
10/06/2024 01:00 PM	Nantes Lyon	15.7% 62.9%	21.4%	+430 -146 +370 -135	0 2	-0.54747-0.60347	-0.46416
10/05/2024 07:00 PM	Monaco Rennes	33.6% 39.2%	27.2%	+154 +186 +145 +180	2 1	-0.96482-0.94585	-1.09195
10/05/2024 05:00 PM	Toulouse Lille	3.5% 87.2%	9.3%	+387 -120 +330 -120	1 2	-0.61999-0.64986	-0.13683
10/04/2024 06:45 PM	Angers Marseille	19.7% 56.4%	23.9%	+1000 -350 +1000 -400	1 1	-1.86085-1.88902	-1.43255
09/29/2024 06:45 PM	Marseille Strasbourg	39.8% 31.2%	29.0%	+118 +245 +115 +220	0 1	-1.24008-1.21345	-1.16536
09/29/2024 03:00 PM	Saint-Etienne Nantes	27.8% 44.8%	27.3%	+406 -130 +370 -130	2 2	-1.37038-1.35545	-1.29751
09/29/2024 03:00 PM	Reims Angers	39.8% 29.8%	30.4%	+120 +280 +115 +260	3 1	-0.80898-0.81482	-0.92176
09/29/2024 01:00 PM	Lyon Toulouse	83.8% 4.9%	11.3%	+200 +145 +190 +140	2 1	-1.12547-1.11480	-0.17637
09/28/2024 07:00 PM	Montpellier Monaco	31.8% 41.5%	26.7%	+900 -280 +1025 -385	1 2	-0.29367-0.25614	-0.87856
09/27/2024 07:00 PM	Rennes Paris Saint-Germain	3.8% 86.8%	9.3%	+615 -230 +675 -270	1 3	-0.39527-0.36489	-0.14124
09/22/2024 06:45 PM	Marseille Lyon	25.4% 48.7%	25.9%	+142 +187 +130 +190	3 2	-0.90827-0.88160	-1.37078
09/22/2024 03:00 PM	Toulouse Brest	9.4% 73.5%	17.1%	+195 +186 +190 +160	0 2	-1.02907-0.99196	-0.30791
09/22/2024 03:00 PM	Nantes Angers	33.5% 37.7%	28.8%	+142 +224 +145 +205	1 1	-1.21848-1.21053	-1.24545
09/21/2024 07:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Reims	81.0% 5.6%	13.3%	-255 +695 -250 +650	1 1	-1.68913-1.63969	-2.01590

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.