France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Nantes
Angers 		33.5%
37.7%		28.8%
+131
+244
+135
+225
1.08
1.16		2.24
o2¼-101
u2¼-115
o2-145
u2+125
Toulouse
Brest 		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+229
+125
+245
+110
0.67
2.25		2.92
o2½-102
u2½-112
o2½+100
u2½-120
Marseille
Lyon 		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+125
+200
+120
+195
1.01
1.51		2.52
o3-110
u3-106
o3-115
u3-105
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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lyon
Montpellier		47.3%
26.2%		26.5%
+105
+275
-110
+270
2
1		-0.73877-0.69589-0.74851
Marseille
Paris Saint-Germain		4.9%
84.3%		10.8%
+661
-235
+625
-245
0
1		-0.38312-0.39116-0.17060
Brest
Nantes		28.8%
43.2%		27.9%
+245
+125
+240
+120
1
4		-0.83317-0.83455-0.83827
Lyon
Rennes		47.6%
25.9%		26.5%
+238
+119
+225
+110
2
3		-0.79875-0.79467-1.34938
Angers
Toulouse		68.7%
12.1%		19.2%
+327
-114
+290
-115
2
3		-0.65281-0.67231-2.11544
Montpellier
Lens		53.0%
21.3%		25.7%
+634
-205
+550
-210
0
1		-0.41603-0.44158-1.54806
Reims
Lorient		45.2%
24.7%		30.1%
+215
+143
+215
+135
0
0		-1.24660-1.23891-1.19991
Lille
Strasbourg		51.7%
22.9%		25.4%
+130
+232
+125
+220
3
0		-0.85357-0.86074-0.66004
Lens
Lille		8.0%
76.7%		15.3%
+176
+180
+170
+155
0
1		-1.01639-0.98714-0.26513
Nantes
Rennes		26.5%
45.5%		28.0%
+610
-193
+550
-200
0
3		-0.43855-0.45463-0.78735
Lorient
Brest		28.0%
44.1%		27.9%
+233
+131
+215
+125
2
1		-1.22170-1.19786-1.27175
Troyes
Nice		16.8%
61.1%		22.1%
+376
-115
+350
-120
2
3		-0.63380-0.65815-0.49251
Strasbourg
Angers		38.3%
33.3%		28.5%
+179
+175
+160
+170
3
2		-1.04126-1.00761-0.96087
Monaco
Montpellier		33.3%
39.5%		27.2%
-114
+310
-105
+255
2
0		-0.64892-0.72128-1.10027
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims		81.0%
5.6%		13.3%
-259
+805
-300
+725
0
0		-1.74200-1.77137-2.01590
Toulouse
Lyon		3.7%
86.9%		9.4%
+582
-220
+490
-205
1
1		-1.68718-1.60899-2.36000
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.59075 
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.55778 
DRatings20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.75274
-0.16198
-0.19496

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.