France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 19 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
09/21/2024 03:00 PM	Strasbourg Lille	17.2% 60.2%	22.5%	+495 -173 +475 -170	3 3	-1.49237-1.47587	-1.48957
09/20/2024 06:45 PM	Saint-Etienne Nice	29.9% 44.1%	26.0%	+615 -202 +540 -190	0 8	-0.42796-0.47392	-0.81814
09/15/2024 03:00 PM	Reims Nantes	37.2% 30.7%	32.1%	+217 +145 +200 +145	2 1	-1.18003-1.14219	-0.98980
09/15/2024 03:00 PM	Angers Strasbourg	26.4% 47.1%	26.5%	+465 -152 +450 -150	1 1	-1.43477-1.36908	-1.32693
09/15/2024 01:00 PM	Montpellier Rennes	31.7% 38.6%	29.7%	+600 -220 +535 -210	0 3	-0.39711-0.44043	-0.95215
09/14/2024 07:00 PM	Brest Paris Saint-Germain	2.8% 90.0%	7.2%	+950 -350 +900 -350	1 3	-0.28631-0.30028	-0.10493
09/14/2024 03:00 PM	Nice Marseille	19.8% 57.2%	22.9%	+345 -111 +330 -120	0 2	-0.66678-0.65329	-0.55785
09/13/2024 06:45 PM	Lille Saint-Etienne	62.5% 16.2%	21.4%	-140 +445 -135 +400	0 1	-1.72513-1.66036	-1.82201
09/01/2024 06:45 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Lille	73.8% 10.1%	16.1%	-128 +355 -130 +325	3 1	-0.61171-0.61982	-0.30365
09/01/2024 03:00 PM	Rennes Reims	29.2% 38.9%	31.9%	+130 +230 +125 +220	1 2	-1.21325-1.21295	-0.94323
09/01/2024 03:00 PM	Nice Angers	32.7% 40.7%	26.6%	-105 +360 -105 +325	4 1	-0.69247-0.71832	-1.11764
08/31/2024 07:00 PM	Marseille Toulouse	78.7% 6.7%	14.6%	+129 +220 +120 +225	3 1	-0.84781-0.83924	-0.23951
08/31/2024 05:00 PM	Nantes Montpellier	26.2% 45.8%	28.0%	+215 +131 +220 +130	3 1	-1.17516-1.21224	-1.33888
08/31/2024 03:00 PM	Saint-Etienne Brest	31.1% 41.4%	27.5%	+380 -130 +375 -135	0 4	-0.60006-0.60468	-0.88259
08/30/2024 06:45 PM	Strasbourg Lyon	18.8% 58.1%	23.0%	+250 +111 +290 +100	3 4	-0.77616-0.73054	-0.54230
08/25/2024 06:45 PM	Reims Marseille	26.2% 43.4%	30.4%	+810 -290 +800 -300	2 2	-1.75435-1.70854	-1.19073

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.