France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 14, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Nice
Angers 		32.7%
40.7%		26.6%
+134
+240
+130
+240
1.19
1.36		2.55
o2¼-105
u2¼-113
o2½+125
u2½-145
Brest
Monaco 		23.2%
53.4%		23.4%
+438
-157
+415
-160
1.08
1.77		2.85
o2¾-118
u2¾-102
o2½-140
u3-135
Games for Mar 13, 2026
Games for Mar 15, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rennes
Monaco		31.5%
41.8%		26.7%
+320
-125
+305
-125
0
1		-0.61904-0.63597-0.87156
Strasbourg
Toulouse		73.2%
9.3%		17.4%
+260
+115
+250
+110
0
0		-1.28096-1.28884-1.74703
Lorient
Montpellier		20.2%
54.3%		25.5%
+325
-120
+315
-125
0
2		-0.63643-0.63936-0.61061
Le Havre
Lens		29.1%
41.9%		28.9%
+645
-200
+600
-205
1
1		-1.50937-1.49598-1.24022
Marseille
Lille		23.3%
51.1%		25.6%
+335
-108
+310
-105
1
3		-0.68195-0.70613-0.67231
Rennes
Strasbourg		32.7%
37.7%		29.6%
+133
+218
+130
+215
0
2		-1.19227-1.19690-0.97578
Montpellier
Le Havre		55.7%
19.2%		25.1%
+170
+185
+175
+175
2
0		-1.01724-1.05535-0.58598
Reims
Lyon		20.8%
52.8%		26.5%
+267
+105
+250
+105
1
1		-1.34438-1.33094-1.32984
Lens
Lille		8.0%
76.7%		15.3%
+263
+117
+265
+105
1
2		-0.80896-0.76819-0.26513
Marseille
Rennes		38.2%
32.1%		29.6%
+168
+168
+160
+170
0
2		-1.00959-1.04120-1.13485
Lorient
Monaco		19.7%
57.7%		22.6%
+660
-265
+650
-275
2
2		-1.76568-1.73693-1.48749
Nice
Lens		45.7%
28.2%		26.1%
+336
-105
+280
+105
3
1		-1.49544-1.38326-0.78309
Strasbourg
Nantes		35.8%
34.4%		29.8%
+305
+105
+275
+110
3
1		-1.42716-1.37105-1.02591
Lyon
Toulouse		83.8%
4.9%		11.3%
+170
+182
+155
+185
3
2		-1.01647-0.98556-0.17637
Nantes
Marseille		20.9%
53.5%		25.5%
+625
-200
+610
-215
0
2		-0.43683-0.43135-0.62459
Rennes
Lille		18.1%
58.5%		23.4%
+350
-110
+315
-105
2
2		-1.28605-1.25931-1.45235
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.