France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 20 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
08/25/2024 03:00 PM	Rennes Strasbourg	32.7% 37.7%	29.6%	+134 +228 +125 +235	1 3	-1.21811-1.25390	-0.97578
08/25/2024 03:00 PM	Toulouse Nice	8.6% 76.1%	15.3%	+291 +114 +275 +110	1 1	-1.20895-1.23881	-1.87915
08/24/2024 05:00 PM	Angers Lille	13.3% 67.4%	19.3%	+920 -280 +860 -300	0 2	-0.33966-0.33670	-0.39421
08/24/2024 03:00 PM	Monaco Lyon	20.7% 57.4%	21.9%	+148 +175 +145 +170	2 0	-0.93451-0.94727	-1.57566
08/23/2024 06:45 PM	Montpellier Paris Saint-Germain	3.9% 86.8%	9.4%	+1165 -450 +1025 -480	0 6	-0.23523-0.24689	-0.14193
08/18/2024 06:45 PM	Lyon Rennes	47.6% 25.9%	26.5%	+215 +133 +210 +130	0 3	-0.87381-0.88312	-1.34938
08/18/2024 03:00 PM	Nantes Toulouse	69.0% 11.3%	19.6%	+290 +110 +290 +105	0 0	-1.25016-1.22926	-1.62791
08/18/2024 03:00 PM	Strasbourg Montpellier	30.2% 40.8%	29.0%	+262 +113 +260 +110	1 1	-1.29397-1.27072	-1.23922
08/17/2024 07:00 PM	Saint-Etienne Monaco	22.2% 55.0%	22.8%	+715 -280 +750 -300	0 1	-0.34279-0.33596	-0.59786
08/17/2024 05:00 PM	Lille Reims	46.4% 24.7%	28.9%	+158 +191 +155 +180	2 0	-0.98147-0.98709	-0.76746
08/17/2024 03:00 PM	Marseille Brest	49.4% 24.4%	26.2%	+140 +221 +130 +220	5 1	-0.90622-0.88201	-0.70548
05/19/2024 07:00 PM	Nice Lille	13.2% 68.3%	18.5%	+550 -195 +545 -200	2 2	-1.57479-1.52047	-1.68973
05/19/2024 07:00 PM	Strasbourg Lyon	18.8% 58.1%	23.0%	+775 -290 +650 -275	1 2	-0.32468-0.36071	-0.54230
05/19/2024 07:00 PM	Nantes Monaco	26.1% 48.8%	25.2%	+430 -180 +535 -200	0 4	-0.47289-0.42179	-0.71808
05/19/2024 07:00 PM	Rennes Reims	29.2% 38.9%	31.9%	+135 +210 +130 +200	1 2	-1.14961-1.14721	-0.94323
05/19/2024 07:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Metz	87.0% 3.7%	9.3%	-130 +355 -140 +395	2 0	-0.60493-0.56784	-0.13910

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.