France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Nantes
Angers 		33.5%
37.7%		28.8%
+142
+222
+135
+225
1.08
1.16		2.24
o2¼-101
u2¼-115
o2-145
u2+125
Toulouse
Brest 		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+211
+140
+205
+135
0.67
2.25		2.92
o2½-102
u2½-112
o2½+100
u2½-120
Marseille
Lyon 		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+133
+195
+125
+190
1.01
1.51		2.52
o3-105
u3-104
o3-115
u3-105
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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lyon
Lens		69.2%
12.1%		18.7%
+207
+135
+205
+125
0
1		-0.87717-0.85982-2.10908
Nantes
Monaco		26.1%
48.8%		25.2%
+654
-230
+525
-215
1
4		-0.38637-0.43155-0.71808
Montpellier
Toulouse		74.0%
8.8%		17.2%
+281
-102
+255
+100
2
4		-0.70684-0.74381-2.42951
Reims
Troyes		57.7%
15.9%		26.4%
+180
+178
+175
+165
2
2		-1.23467-1.21527-1.33109
Lille
Lorient		64.6%
14.4%		21.0%
+135
+215
+145
+175
1
2		-1.17025-1.06369-1.94072
Nice
Paris Saint-Germain		2.8%
90.4%		6.8%
+1341
-447
+1050
-450
1
2		-0.22520-0.24953-0.10105
Rennes
Strasbourg		32.7%
37.7%		29.6%
+124
+237
+115
+230
3
1		-0.83103-0.81792-1.11752
Marseille
Angers		47.6%
25.9%		26.5%
-118
+350
-135
+350
3
0		-0.63354-0.60605-0.74227
Paris Saint-Germain
Lyon		76.2%
9.1%		14.8%
-172
+450
-195
+425
1
0		-0.46296-0.46420-0.27244
Lens
Nantes		20.1%
54.7%		25.1%
+102
+288
+105
+260
0
0		-1.33907-1.30280-1.38099
Rennes
Marseille		25.6%
46.8%		27.6%
+277
+112
+260
+105
1
1		-1.29554-1.30280-1.28725
Angers
Nice		32.6%
40.8%		26.6%
+437
-141
+430
-155
1
0		-1.70128-1.71925-1.12083
Monaco
Reims		31.4%
39.8%		28.8%
+123
+230
+120
+215
3
0		-0.82711-0.84077-1.15897
Toulouse
Lille		3.5%
87.2%		9.3%
+384
-130
+360
-140
1
2		-0.58852-0.58848-0.13683
Strasbourg
Montpellier		30.2%
40.8%		29.0%
+194
+157
+165
+165
1
2		-0.96283-1.02223-0.89634
Lyon
Monaco		48.1%
27.4%		24.5%
+178
+162
+165
+155
1
2		-0.98064-0.98602-1.29415
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.59075 
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.55778 
DRatings20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.75274
-0.16198
-0.19496

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.