France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Nantes
Angers 		33.5%
37.7%		28.8%
+145
+220
+135
+225
1.08
1.16		2.24
o2¼-101
u2¼-115
o2-145
u2+125
Toulouse
Brest 		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+211
+140
+205
+135
0.67
2.25		2.92
o2½-102
u2½-116
o2½+100
u2½-120
Marseille
Lyon 		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+139
+190
+125
+190
1.01
1.51		2.52
o2¾-122
u3-120
o3-115
u3-105
Games for Sep 21, 2024
Games for Sep 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Reims
Toulouse		72.2%
8.6%		19.2%
+196
+153
+200
+135
0
1		-0.94446-0.90604-2.45248
Nantes
Lorient		38.8%
31.5%		29.7%
+215
+153
+220
+135
2
3		-0.94843-0.90372-1.15445
Montpellier
Angers		39.8%
31.7%		28.5%
+196
+151
+180
+140
1
2		-0.93420-0.92576-1.14870
Lille
Marseille		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+250
+122
+240
+115
1
2		-0.81135-0.81340-1.20531
Brest
Paris Saint-Germain		2.8%
90.0%		7.2%
+2816
-1150
+2500
-1400
0
1		-0.10938-0.11800-0.10493
Troyes
Lens		25.8%
45.7%		28.5%
+525
-185
+520
-210
0
1		-0.44943-0.44183-0.78410
Lyon
Lorient		62.7%
15.8%		21.5%
-124
+340
-135
+340
1
3		-1.50490-1.53206-1.84757
Monaco
Nice		42.8%
32.2%		25.0%
+154
+197
+150
+185
1
0		-0.94814-0.96451-0.84959
Rennes
Troyes		58.7%
16.9%		24.4%
-112
+321
-115
+300
1
1		-1.38681-1.37200-1.41239
Lens
Reims		15.2%
60.2%		24.6%
+139
+220
+125
+215
1
1		-1.27336-1.28884-1.40259
Strasbourg
Brest		39.9%
31.6%		28.5%
+195
+162
+180
+150
1
1		-1.22581-1.27379-1.25639
Lille
Montpellier		49.6%
24.1%		26.2%
+102
+283
+100
+270
3
1		-0.72359-0.74381-0.70041
Paris Saint-Germain
Nantes		86.3%
4.1%		9.7%
-400
+1072
-425
+1000
3
0		-0.24994-0.26196-0.14787
Angers
Lyon		14.6%
65.6%		19.8%
+821
-308
+800
-335
0
5		-0.30900-0.31069-0.42222
Nice
Lille		13.2%
68.3%		18.5%
+285
+113
+290
+100
2
1		-1.36289-1.41026-2.02480
Brest
Rennes		23.8%
49.9%		26.3%
+565
-173
+550
-200
1
3		-0.46494-0.45463-0.69559
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.59075 
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.55778 
DRatings20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.75274
-0.16198
-0.19496

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.