France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Nantes
Angers 		33.5%
37.7%		28.8%
+145
+220
+135
+225
1.08
1.16		2.24
o2¼-101
u2¼-115
o2-145
u2+125
Toulouse
Brest 		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+211
+140
+205
+135
0.67
2.25		2.92
o2½+100
u2½-116
o2½+100
u2½-120
Marseille
Lyon 		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+139
+190
+125
+190
1.01
1.51		2.52
o2¾-122
u2¾+102
o3-115
u3-105
Games for Sep 21, 2024
Games for Sep 27, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lorient
Lens		37.5%
32.7%		29.7%
+412
-130
+420
-140
2
5		-0.58996-0.58390-1.11706
Paris Saint-Germain
Toulouse		92.7%
1.7%		5.6%
-362
+950
-425
+900
3
0		-0.26356-0.26046-0.07535
Troyes
Monaco		11.7%
70.2%		18.1%
+900
-290
+850
-325
4
2		-2.31993-2.30179-2.14234
Nantes
Strasbourg		27.6%
44.3%		28.0%
+277
+115
+280
+100
1
1		-1.27687-1.30048-1.27236
Reims
Angers		39.8%
29.8%		30.4%
+140
+231
+135
+220
4
2		-0.88914-0.90372-0.92176
Monaco
Paris Saint-Germain		3.7%
88.3%		8.0%
+1139
-420
+1050
-500
1
1		-2.03638-2.09581-2.52898
Lyon
Reims		44.3%
26.7%		29.0%
-117
+322
-125
+315
1
1		-1.43083-1.41256-1.23867
Montpellier
Brest		41.4%
30.1%		28.5%
+317
-101
+290
-110
7
0		-1.44185-1.41022-0.88158
Marseille
Nice		48.3%
26.1%		25.6%
+160
+191
+145
+185
3
0		-0.97101-0.94788-0.72780
Angers
Troyes		51.6%
22.4%		26.0%
+244
+140
+220
+130
1
3		-0.88220-0.88201-1.49647
Toulouse
Nantes		8.3%
75.0%		16.7%
+210
+147
+205
+140
1
3		-0.92135-0.92637-0.28708
Rennes
Lens		52.6%
21.5%		25.9%
+230
+132
+215
+125
1
2		-0.85411-0.86140-1.53879
Paris Saint-Germain
Lille		73.8%
10.1%		16.1%
-269
+709
-300
+700
7
1		-0.33964-0.33986-0.30365
Lorient
Toulouse		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+367
-115
+315
-115
2
2		-1.32742-1.34335-1.47766
Brest
Angers		30.7%
41.9%		27.4%
+215
+154
+205
+135
3
1		-1.15528-1.16575-1.18234
Reims
Strasbourg		32.9%
34.8%		32.3%
+420
-126
+400
-135
1
1		-1.32426-1.33184-1.13131
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.59075 
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.55778 
DRatings20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.75274
-0.16198
-0.19496

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.