France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedNantes
Paris Saint-Germain 		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%


0.52
3.27		3.79


Lille
Rennes 		49.9%
23.9%		26.2%
+248
+122
+233
+121
1.49
0.94		2.43
o2½-105
u2½-108
o2½-115
u2½-105
Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Toulouse
Metz 		9.3%
72.7%		18.0%
-102
+308
+102
+300
2.74
o2¼-108
u2¼-102
o2½+115
u2½-130
1st H
35:00		2
2

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Monaco
Marseille		27.1%
47.7%		25.1%
+198
+137
+180
+145
2
2		-1.32573-1.30254-1.38071
Rennes
Lyon		19.8%
56.4%		23.8%
+182
+160
+190
+140
3
2		-1.06540-1.11480-1.62141
Lyon
Le Havre		71.2%
10.9%		18.0%
+147
+217
+145
+210
1
3		-1.18136-1.17847-2.21935
Montpellier
Brest		41.4%
30.1%		28.5%
+388
-120
+335
-120
0
2		-0.63390-0.65427-1.20091
Lorient
Lille		10.5%
71.6%		17.9%
+1125
-353
+1100
-390
0
3		-0.28362-0.27863-0.33381
Nice
Rennes		25.5%
49.0%		25.5%
+216
+145
+230
+135
0
2		-0.92788-0.90429-0.71355
Reims
Monaco		32.2%
39.0%		28.8%
+390
-143
+385
-160
3
1		-1.61944-1.62913-1.13283
Strasbourg
Marseille		24.6%
48.6%		26.8%
+470
-155
+475
-165
1
1		-1.43784-1.41256-1.31531
Monaco
Toulouse		77.5%
8.2%		14.3%
-113
+305
-120
+315
2
1		-0.65500-0.65452-0.25506
Lille
Strasbourg		51.7%
22.9%		25.4%
+110
+288
+105
+275
1
2		-1.37528-1.36920-1.47451
Le Havre
Reims		13.7%
62.2%		24.0%
+400
-129
+385
-140
0
1		-0.59671-0.58709-0.47409
Marseille
Montpellier		37.9%
32.4%		29.6%
-104
+316
-105
+290
1
1		-1.32058-1.31602-1.21655
Nantes
Lyon		15.7%
62.9%		21.4%
+345
-111
+350
-130
0
1		-0.66316-0.61665-0.46416
Lorient
Brest		28.0%
44.1%		27.9%
+460
-140
+440
-145
0
4		-0.56717-0.57426-0.81916
Rennes
Toulouse		73.8%
8.9%		17.3%
+127
+240
+120
+220
0
0		-1.27293-1.30420-1.75377
Strasbourg
Lorient		44.2%
27.7%		28.1%
+215
+153
+210
+140
2
1		-1.16761-1.18185-0.81604
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.70933 
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.71591 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.87281
-0.16348
-0.15690

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.