France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Nantes
Angers 		33.5%
37.7%		28.8%
+145
+220
+135
+225
1.08
1.16		2.24
o2¼+102
u2¼-119
o2-145
u2+125
Toulouse
Brest 		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+211
+140
+205
+135
0.67
2.25		2.92
o2½+100
u2½-116
o2½+100
u2½-120
Marseille
Lyon 		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+139
+190
+125
+190
1.01
1.51		2.52
o2¾-122
u2¾+102
o3-115
u3-105
Games for Sep 21, 2024
Games for Sep 27, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nantes
Marseille		20.9%
53.5%		25.5%
+450
-147
+450
-165
1
2		-0.53960-0.52101-0.62459
Lens
Monaco		15.3%
64.8%		19.9%
+340
-117
+330
-125
4
1		-1.49669-1.50860-1.87712
Troyes
Lyon		6.8%
78.9%		14.3%
+841
-312
+840
-340
1
4		-0.29835-0.30806-0.23685
Marseille
Brest		49.4%
24.4%		26.2%
+103
+298
-105
+275
1
1		-1.35170-1.34623-1.34109
Strasbourg
Nice		38.7%
33.7%		27.5%
+255
+129
+240
+125
1
1		-1.24657-1.21295-1.29084
Montpellier
Paris Saint-Germain		3.9%
86.8%		9.4%
+2233
-900
+2250
-1100
2
5		-0.13700-0.13592-0.14193
Rennes
Monaco		31.5%
41.8%		26.7%
+232
+128
+230
+120
1
1		-1.30641-1.27418-1.32193
Reims
Marseille		26.2%
43.4%		30.4%
+515
-153
+510
-175
1
4		-0.52015-0.50106-0.83586
Lorient
Rennes		20.4%
54.0%		25.5%
+573
-195
+575
-220
1
0		-1.92607-1.95680-1.58763
Nantes
Angers		33.5%
37.7%		28.8%
+152
+223
+140
+210
0
0		-1.18407-1.21362-1.24545
Brest
Lens		42.7%
29.3%		28.0%
+480
-158
+430
-160
2
3		-0.51356-0.52680-1.22751
Troyes
Montpellier		12.4%
66.5%		21.1%
+285
+120
+270
+105
2
3		-0.80562-0.76873-0.40827
Nice
Toulouse		69.8%
11.9%		18.2%
+208
+185
+185
+165
1
1		-1.21127-1.21396-1.70210
Monaco
Strasbourg		34.9%
38.0%		27.1%
+225
+161
+205
+150
2
1		-1.17623-1.15471-1.05228
Nice
Reims		23.8%
49.1%		27.0%
-104
+305
-115
+300
3
2		-0.69207-0.67598-1.43397
Metz
Paris Saint-Germain		2.9%
89.3%		7.8%
+1771
-740
+1400
-750
0
5		-0.15207-0.17302-0.11337
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.59075 
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.55778 
DRatings20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.75274
-0.16198
-0.19496

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.