France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Nantes
Angers 		33.5%
37.7%		28.8%
+142
+224
+145
+205
1.08
1.16		2.24
o2¼+103
u2¼-122
o2-145
u2+125
Toulouse
Brest 		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+195
+180
+190
+160
0.67
2.25		2.92
o2½+100
u2½-120
o2½+100
u2½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Marseille
Lyon 		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+139
+190
+130
+190
1.01
1.51		2.52
o2¾-122
u2¾+102
o3+105
u3-125
Games for Sep 21, 2024
Games for Sep 27, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Saint-Etienne
Nantes		27.8%
44.8%		27.3%
+186
+151
+190
+140
1
1		-1.31651-1.28844-1.29751
Strasbourg
Marseille		24.6%
48.6%		26.8%
+273
+124
+255
+125
0
4		-0.82387-0.82271-0.72251
Troyes
Lorient		20.9%
52.4%		26.7%
+229
+125
+225
+120
1
1		-1.31082-1.28913-1.32144
Rennes
Lille		18.1%
58.5%		23.4%
-100
+277
-110
+280
2
2		-1.38434-1.38390-1.45235
Monaco
Lens		56.3%
20.8%		22.9%
+115
+234
+110
+220
2
2		-1.38553-1.38557-1.47447
Bordeaux
Brest		40.6%
31.5%		27.9%
+371
-150
+425
-170
4
2		-1.57624-1.68837-0.90172
Montpellier
Angers		39.8%
31.7%		28.5%
+257
+110
+250
+105
0
2		-0.76464-0.76070-1.14870
Lens
Troyes		37.2%
32.3%		30.5%
+105
+290
+100
+260
3
1		-0.73222-0.74360-0.98824
Reims
Saint-Etienne		42.8%
27.4%		29.8%
+295
+104
+290
-105
2
1		-1.39388-1.41005-0.84835
Marseille
Rennes		38.2%
32.1%		29.6%
+305
-104
+335
-125
0
2		-0.69341-0.63858-1.13485
Lille
Nice		60.3%
18.1%		21.5%
+395
-135
+350
-145
3
1		-1.60839-1.55495-0.50541
Paris Saint-Germain
Montpellier		83.6%
5.1%		11.3%
-315
+799
-350
+750
4
0		-0.29592-0.30286-0.17902
Brest
Monaco		23.2%
53.4%		23.4%
+1205
-445
+1025
-425
2
4		-0.23614-0.26113-0.62798
Angers
Metz		32.7%
38.2%		29.0%
+219
+135
+220
+125
0
1		-0.87108-0.84884-0.96158
Nantes
Lyon		15.7%
62.9%		21.4%
+526
-195
+515
-225
2
3		-0.42622-0.41746-0.46416
Lorient
Bordeaux		21.2%
53.8%		25.0%
+205
+148
+190
+140
0
0		-1.26532-1.28844-1.38741
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.59075 
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.55778 
DRatings20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.75274
-0.16198
-0.19496

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.