France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedNantes
Paris Saint-Germain 		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%


0.52
3.27		3.79


Lille
Rennes 		49.9%
23.9%		26.2%
+245
+124
+233
+125
1.49
0.94		2.43
o2½-105
u2½-115
o2½-110
u2½-105
Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Toulouse
Metz 		9.3%
72.7%		18.0%
-102
+308
+102
+300
2.74
o2¼-108
u2¼-102
o2½+115
u2½-130
FINAL
FINAL		4
3

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brest
Nantes		28.8%
43.2%		27.9%
+180
+180
+175
+175
2
0		-1.05604-1.06025-1.24396
Reims
Lens		52.3%
20.1%		27.6%
+221
+143
+230
+135
0
2		-0.90493-0.88114-1.60385
Lyon
Monaco		48.1%
27.4%		24.5%
+360
-126
+355
-125
1
0		-1.54468-1.53127-0.73141
Marseille
Lorient		53.4%
21.0%		25.6%
-120
+398
-130
+375
4
2		-0.61550-0.61906-0.62691
Toulouse
Lyon		3.7%
86.9%		9.4%
+365
-110
+340
-130
0
3		-0.62923-0.61828-0.14090
Le Havre
Strasbourg		15.2%
62.5%		22.3%
+265
+137
+230
+135
1
2		-0.85729-0.90429-0.47037
Monaco
Rennes		33.6%
39.2%		27.2%
+165
+175
+155
+170
2
1		-0.98577-0.98714-1.09195
Lens
Montpellier		15.9%
61.3%		22.7%
+105
+285
+105
+260
0
0		-1.31602-1.30280-1.48188
Strasbourg
Brest		39.9%
31.6%		28.5%
+395
-115
+400
-120
1
1		-1.29550-1.29375-1.25639
Lyon
Marseille		39.8%
32.3%		27.9%
+350
-105
+345
-120
0
3		-0.66318-0.64232-1.13097
Lille
Lyon		34.6%
37.6%		27.8%
+144
+215
+140
+200
2
0		-0.90093-0.92284-1.06239
Reims
Rennes		31.7%
35.8%		32.5%
+283
+111
+250
+110
1
3		-0.75198-0.79239-1.02680
Le Havre
Nantes		18.2%
57.3%		24.5%
+330
+105
+275
+105
0
0		-1.25267-1.26058-1.40601
Brest
Montpellier		23.6%
50.2%		26.2%
+225
+133
+225
+125
3
1		-1.20504-1.22806-1.44545
Marseille
Strasbourg		39.8%
31.2%		29.0%
-105
+335
-110
+300
1
1		-1.32062-1.33124-1.23925
Monaco
Paris Saint-Germain		3.7%
88.3%		8.0%

+500
-220
2
5		-0.42745-0.12474
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.52072 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.53479 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.62798
-0.10726
-0.09319

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.