France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Marseille
Lyon 		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+135
+200
+130
+190
1.01
1.51		2.52
o2¾-122
u3-120
o3+105
u3-125
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Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Nantes
Angers 		33.5%
37.7%		28.8%
+142
+224
+145
+205
2.24
o2¼+103
u2¼-122
o2-145
u2+125
2nd H
81:00		1
1
Toulouse
Brest 		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+195
+186
+190
+160
2.92
o2¼-105
u2½-120
o2½+100
u2½-120
2nd H
75:00		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rennes
Nantes		37.0%
33.0%		30.0%
-175
+500
-190
+455
1
2		-1.80302-1.76521-1.10736
Saint-Etienne
Nice		29.9%
44.1%		26.0%
+600
-189
+550
-200
2
4		-0.44307-0.45463-0.81814
Troyes
Paris Saint-Germain		1.9%
91.8%		6.2%
+1605
-575
+1600
-700
2
2		-2.22350-2.19024-2.77419
Marseille
Lorient		53.4%
21.0%		25.6%
+107
+284
+100
+270
3
0		-0.74786-0.73643-0.62691
Lens
Reims		15.2%
60.2%		24.6%
+129
+247
+115
+240
2
1		-0.84316-0.81744-1.88263
Bordeaux
Angers		38.9%
33.2%		27.9%
+203
+150
+200
+135
1
4		-0.93110-0.90604-1.10319
Lyon
Metz		57.3%
19.0%		23.6%
-302
+800
-265
+650
2
3		-2.21935-2.06357-1.65842
Strasbourg
Brest		39.9%
31.6%		28.5%
-102
+295
+100
+325
1
0		-0.70846-0.69511-0.91879
Monaco
Lille		18.8%
59.7%		21.4%
+106
+272
-105
+275
2
1		-0.74410-0.71701-1.66903
Lyon
Marseille		39.8%
32.3%		27.9%
+207
+143
+195
+135
3
0		-1.13659-1.13082-0.92130
Nice
Bordeaux		26.4%
48.5%		25.1%
+126
+235
+120
+260
1
0		-0.83471-0.81040-1.33025
Metz
Montpellier		23.9%
48.6%		27.4%
+364
-122
+350
-130
2
2		-1.40125-1.37444-1.29288
Angers
Monaco		24.7%
51.6%		23.7%
+850
-300
+825
-285
0
2		-0.32410-0.35187-0.66132
Reims
Lorient		45.2%
24.7%		30.1%
+274
+122
+250
+120
2
1		-1.33972-1.30420-0.79423
Lille
Troyes		74.8%
8.5%		16.6%
+126
+256
+115
+265
0
3		-1.28968-1.34504-2.46053
Saint-Etienne
Rennes		22.9%
51.5%		25.6%
+940
-311
+950
-375
0
2		-0.29812-0.28650-0.66388
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.68913 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.63969 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.01590
-0.32677
-0.37621

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.