France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedNantes
Paris Saint-Germain 		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%


0.52
3.27		3.79


Lille
Rennes 		49.9%
23.9%		26.2%
+240
+126
+235
+125
1.49
0.94		2.43
o2½+102
u2½-120
o2½+115
u2½-125
Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Monaco
Paris Saint-Germain		3.7%
88.3%		8.0%

+500
-220
2
5		-0.42745-0.12474
Marseille
Lens		60.5%
16.6%		22.9%
+225
+135
+220
+130
0
1		-0.86922-0.87347-1.79721
Toulouse
Lille		3.5%
87.2%		9.3%
+535
-170
+575
-215
1
1		-1.53053-1.55566-2.37258
Monaco
Le Havre		59.1%
18.7%		22.2%
-130
+392
-135
+345
0
0		-1.42329-1.42474-1.50584
Brest
Monaco		23.2%
53.4%		23.4%
+345
-124
+345
-135
0
2		-0.61042-0.59649-0.62798
Reims
Nantes		37.2%
30.7%		32.1%
+160
+192
+155
+185
1
0		-0.97649-0.98556-0.98980
Lille
Marseille		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+330
+120
+300
-110
0
0		-1.27443-1.33124-1.27880
Lens
Lorient		26.1%
46.1%		27.8%
-115
+375
-135
+375
0
0		-1.37413-1.37215-1.28154
Strasbourg
Rennes		30.5%
40.5%		29.0%
+625
-162
+625
-225
1
1		-1.49933-1.55519-1.23774
Monaco
Lille		18.8%
59.7%		21.4%
+198
+150
+175
+140
0
2		-0.91091-0.92480-0.51507
Nantes
Lens		46.1%
26.2%		27.7%
+479
-162
+450
-170
0
4		-0.50407-0.51371-1.33930
Lorient
Reims		19.1%
53.4%		27.4%
+411
-135
+375
-145
0
1		-0.56254-0.57263-0.62736
Reims
Toulouse		72.2%
8.6%		19.2%
+177
+170
+160
+170
1
1		-1.26972-1.26107-1.65271
Montpellier
Nantes		37.3%
32.8%		29.9%
+135
+213
+135
+190
0
2		-1.16357-1.11544-1.11514
Rennes
Lorient		45.4%
26.5%		28.1%
-111
+335
-115
+290
1
2		-1.48908-1.41075-1.32772
Marseille
Nice		48.3%
26.1%		25.6%
+231
+137
+215
+135
0
1		-0.88520-0.90387-1.34224
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.61918 
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.63610 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.50146
-0.88228
-0.86536

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.