France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 20 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
02/18/2024 12:00 PM	Lorient Strasbourg	21.4% 52.9%	25.6%	+423 -135 +415 -145	3 1	-1.67954-1.69038	-1.54024
02/17/2024 04:00 PM	Le Havre Lille	7.2% 78.1%	14.7%	+645 -200 +650 -215	0 3	-0.43837-0.43183	-0.24719
02/11/2024 02:00 PM	Nantes Toulouse	69.0% 11.3%	19.6%	+282 +110 +280 +105	2 1	-1.36771-1.38326	-0.37079
02/11/2024 02:00 PM	Reims Lorient	45.2% 24.7%	30.1%	-113 +330 -115 +330	0 2	-1.49143-1.49919	-1.39918
02/11/2024 12:00 PM	Rennes Le Havre	55.4% 19.4%	25.2%	+110 +298 +105 +280	1 0	-0.76327-0.77044	-0.59117
02/10/2024 04:00 PM	Strasbourg Lens	51.5% 22.5%	26.0%	+460 -150 +430 -150	1 3	-0.54521-0.56136	-1.49192
02/04/2024 02:00 PM	Toulouse Reims	6.4% 77.2%	16.4%	+370 -122 +350 -125	3 2	-1.57964-1.55452	-2.74918
02/04/2024 12:00 PM	Le Havre Monaco	13.7% 67.2%	19.1%	+510 -170 +530 -170	1 1	-1.50224-1.44274	-1.65454
02/03/2024 08:00 PM	Lens Nantes	20.1% 54.7%	25.1%	+110 +277 +110 +260	1 0	-0.77195-0.79308	-1.60251
02/03/2024 04:00 PM	Montpellier Rennes	31.7% 38.6%	29.7%	+590 -190 +510 -180	1 2	-0.45500-0.49127	-0.95215
01/28/2024 04:05 PM	Lens Toulouse	55.4% 19.6%	25.1%	+108 +260 +110 +260	2 0	-0.76656-0.78891	-0.59083
01/28/2024 02:00 PM	Nantes Reims	24.6% 45.3%	30.0%	+315 +100 +305 +105	0 0	-1.27909-1.26263	-1.20257
01/28/2024 02:00 PM	Le Havre Lorient	23.8% 48.8%	27.3%	+158 +220 +155 +205	3 3	-1.15382-1.15059	-1.29678
01/28/2024 12:00 PM	Lille Montpellier	49.6% 24.1%	26.2%	+105 +290 -105 +290	0 0	-1.28226-1.30567	-1.33811
01/27/2024 08:00 PM	Monaco Marseille	27.1% 47.7%	25.1%	+198 +137 +180 +145	2 2	-1.32573-1.30254	-1.38071
01/26/2024 08:00 PM	Rennes Lyon	19.8% 56.4%	23.8%	+182 +160 +190 +140	3 2	-1.06540-1.11480	-1.62141

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.