France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedNantes
Paris Saint-Germain 		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%


0.52
3.27		3.79


Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Lille
Rennes 		49.9%
23.9%		26.2%
+240
+126
+235
+125
2.43
o2½+102
u2½-120
o2½+115
u2½-125
2nd H
80:00		2
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lens
Le Havre		33.9%
36.0%		30.1%
-115
+376
-115
+340
0
0		-1.30748-1.28906-1.20051
Lille
Lens		70.7%
11.0%		18.2%
+207
+145
+205
+135
1
1		-1.26181-1.25956-1.70375
Lorient
Lyon		11.5%
70.1%		18.4%
+370
-125
+375
-145
3
3		-1.40446-1.43734-1.69489
Toulouse
Brest		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+425
-140
+390
-135
1
1		-1.38107-1.35600-1.76750
Le Havre
Marseille		10.9%
70.0%		19.1%
+625
-207
+565
-215
0
3		-0.41879-0.43329-0.35673
Monaco
Reims		31.4%
39.8%		28.8%
+156
+174
+160
+160
3
1		-0.96202-1.00518-1.15897
Nantes
Strasbourg		27.6%
44.3%		28.0%
+235
+139
+230
+130
2
1		-1.23326-1.24303-1.28609
Nantes
Rennes		26.5%
45.5%		28.0%
+433
-150
+475
-170
1
3		-0.54185-0.50898-0.78735
Montpellier
Lorient		45.7%
26.3%		28.0%
+132
+216
+125
+210
3
0		-0.87424-0.86232-0.78336
Brest
Nice		30.9%
42.5%		26.5%
+370
-120
+385
-140
0
0		-1.35615-1.38633-1.32667
Marseille
Monaco		38.6%
34.4%		27.0%
+180
+148
+180
+140
2
3		-0.93151-0.92213-1.06732
Lens
Strasbourg		16.9%
59.9%		23.1%
+101
+308
+100
+280
1
0		-0.71832-0.74482-1.77537
Reims
Lille		19.0%
54.8%		26.2%
+303
-113
+285
-110
2
1		-1.42824-1.39707-1.65884
Rennes
Montpellier		31.2%
39.1%		29.7%
+161
+180
+155
+170
0
0		-1.28866-1.28942-1.21534
Toulouse
Lens		14.6%
63.4%		22.0%
+655
-215
+600
-220
1
2		-0.40932-0.42593-0.45536
Lyon
Brest		59.0%
18.6%		22.4%
+170
+156
+170
+150
0
1		-0.97437-0.96703-1.68147
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.71764 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.73741 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-2.37494
-1.65730
-1.63753

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.