France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Marseille
Lyon 		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+135
+200
+130
+190
1.01
1.51		2.52
o2¾-122
u3-120
o3+105
u3-125
Games for Sep 21, 2024
Games for Sep 27, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lille
Troyes		74.8%
8.5%		16.6%
+126
+256
+115
+265
0
3		-1.28968-1.34504-2.46053
Saint-Etienne
Rennes		22.9%
51.5%		25.6%
+940
-311
+950
-375
0
2		-0.29812-0.28650-0.66388
Nantes
Lens		46.1%
26.2%		27.7%
+450
-149
+460
-175
2
2		-1.44958-1.48673-1.28305
Paris Saint-Germain
Strasbourg		84.6%
4.8%		10.6%
+106
+280
-110
+280
3
3		-1.35635-1.38390-2.24205
Marseille
Reims		35.3%
32.4%		32.3%
-103
+340
-105
+310
1
0		-0.69864-0.71803-1.04245
Strasbourg
Lille		17.2%
60.2%		22.5%
+182
+184
+180
+170
0
1		-1.06381-1.04214-0.50667
Brest
Metz		31.1%
39.8%		29.1%
+185
+165
+155
+185
1
0		-1.07990-0.98556-1.16809
Troyes
Nice		16.8%
61.1%		22.1%
+650
-200
+510
-175
0
1		-0.43188-0.50407-0.49251
Bordeaux
Nantes		36.5%
34.3%		29.2%
+257
+115
+280
-110
3
5		-0.78821-0.69888-1.06930
Lorient
Rennes		20.4%
54.0%		25.5%
+800
-275
+765
-290
0
5		-0.34448-0.34825-0.61600
Lens
Paris Saint-Germain		2.1%
91.7%		6.1%
+1007
-394
+1000
-425
1
1		-1.98239-1.95701-2.79279
Monaco
Saint-Etienne		45.7%
29.1%		25.2%
-134
+375
-145
+375
4
1		-0.58363-0.57263-0.78285
Montpellier
Lyon		20.0%
56.1%		23.9%
+682
-251
+725
-300
2
5		-0.35919-0.33626-0.57748
Rennes
Strasbourg		32.7%
37.7%		29.6%
+189
+163
+180
+150
1
2		-0.98631-0.96627-0.97578
Nantes
Marseille		20.9%
53.5%		25.5%
+510
-175
+490
-175
2
3		-0.48695-0.49774-0.62459
Montpellier
Lens		53.0%
21.3%		25.7%
+723
-200
+600
-170
0
2		-0.41580-0.46238-1.54806
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.31223 
Sportsbooks31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.28073 
DRatings31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.18975
0.12247
0.09097

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.