France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 20 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
01/14/2024 04:05 PM	Lyon Le Havre	71.2% 10.9%	18.0%	+147 +217 +145 +210	1 3	-1.18136-1.17847	-2.21935
01/14/2024 02:00 PM	Montpellier Brest	41.4% 30.1%	28.5%	+388 -120 +335 -120	0 2	-0.63390-0.65427	-1.20091
01/14/2024 12:00 PM	Lorient Lille	10.5% 71.6%	17.9%	+1125 -353 +1100 -390	0 3	-0.28362-0.27863	-0.33381
01/13/2024 08:00 PM	Nice Rennes	25.5% 49.0%	25.5%	+216 +145 +230 +135	0 2	-0.92788-0.90429	-0.71355
01/13/2024 04:00 PM	Reims Monaco	32.2% 39.0%	28.8%	+390 -143 +385 -160	3 1	-1.61944-1.62913	-1.13283
01/12/2024 08:00 PM	Strasbourg Marseille	24.6% 48.6%	26.8%	+470 -155 +475 -165	1 1	-1.43784-1.41256	-1.31531
12/20/2023 08:00 PM	Monaco Toulouse	77.5% 8.2%	14.3%	-113 +305 -120 +315	2 1	-0.65500-0.65452	-0.25506
12/20/2023 08:00 PM	Lille Strasbourg	51.7% 22.9%	25.4%	+110 +288 +105 +275	1 2	-1.37528-1.36920	-1.47451
12/20/2023 08:00 PM	Le Havre Reims	13.7% 62.2%	24.0%	+400 -129 +385 -140	0 1	-0.59671-0.58709	-0.47409
12/20/2023 08:00 PM	Marseille Montpellier	37.9% 32.4%	29.6%	-104 +316 -105 +290	1 1	-1.32058-1.31602	-1.21655
12/20/2023 08:00 PM	Nantes Lyon	15.7% 62.9%	21.4%	+345 -111 +350 -130	0 1	-0.66316-0.61665	-0.46416
12/20/2023 08:00 PM	Lorient Brest	28.0% 44.1%	27.9%	+460 -140 +440 -145	0 4	-0.56717-0.57426	-0.81916
12/17/2023 02:00 PM	Rennes Toulouse	73.8% 8.9%	17.3%	+127 +240 +120 +220	0 0	-1.27293-1.30420	-1.75377
12/17/2023 02:00 PM	Strasbourg Lorient	44.2% 27.7%	28.1%	+215 +153 +210 +140	2 1	-1.16761-1.18185	-0.81604
12/17/2023 12:00 PM	Brest Nantes	28.8% 43.2%	27.9%	+180 +180 +175 +175	2 0	-1.05604-1.06025	-1.24396
12/16/2023 08:00 PM	Reims Lens	52.3% 20.1%	27.6%	+221 +143 +230 +135	0 2	-0.90493-0.88114	-1.60385

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.