France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 27, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rennes
Paris Saint-Germain 		3.8%
86.8%		9.3%


0.55
3.09		3.64


Games for Sep 26, 2024
Games for Sep 28, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Marseille
Lyon 		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+142
+187
+130
+190
2.52
o2¾-122
u3-120
o3+105
u3-125
2nd H
83:00		2
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lyon
Brest		59.0%
18.6%		22.4%
-130
+355
-130
+325
1
2		-1.52836-1.49620-1.68147
Paris Saint-Germain
Angers		87.6%
3.7%		8.7%
-198
+575
-220
+550
3
0		-0.42535-0.42528-0.13243
Lille
Reims		46.4%
24.7%		28.9%
+175
+202
+165
+225
1
2		-1.11841-1.19686-1.39812
Nice
Monaco		24.8%
52.2%		23.0%
+383
-120
+375
-130
0
1		-0.62166-0.61906-0.65003
Metz
Lorient		35.7%
33.8%		30.5%
+600
-169
+580
-190
0
1		-0.47971-0.47377-1.08506
Saint-Etienne
Bordeaux		23.7%
51.1%		25.1%
+210
+141
+200
+140
2
2		-1.28392-1.25632-1.38059
Marseille
Paris Saint-Germain		4.9%
84.3%		10.8%
+634
-236
+575
-250
1
2		-0.37680-0.38632-0.17060
Bordeaux
Lyon		19.1%
58.3%		22.6%
+740
-250
+675
-265
1
6		-0.35152-0.37004-0.53916
Strasbourg
Troyes		57.8%
17.7%		24.4%
+110
+322
+105
+285
1
1		-1.20996-1.24327-1.40915
Angers
Nantes		30.4%
41.5%		28.2%
+319
+105
+310
+100
1
1		-1.24414-1.22895-1.26737
Reims
Montpellier		31.4%
36.1%		32.5%
+232
+140
+235
+130
0
0		-1.21885-1.19690-1.12507
Lorient
Nice		26.9%
47.1%		26.0%
+485
-154
+400
-140
1
2		-0.51842-0.58780-0.75222
Lens
Lille		8.0%
76.7%		15.3%
+347
-106
+290
-105
2
1		-1.51951-1.41005-2.52548
Brest
Saint-Etienne		33.3%
38.6%		28.1%
+262
+125
+260
+110
1
2		-0.83170-0.79308-0.95143
Monaco
Rennes		33.6%
39.2%		27.2%
+265
+111
+240
+105
3
2		-1.30236-1.27465-1.09195
Montpellier
Marseille		25.8%
46.5%		27.6%
+621
-205
+580
-220
0
2		-0.41502-0.42534-0.76507
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.12378 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.10124 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.77668
0.34710
0.32456

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.