France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedNantes
Paris Saint-Germain 		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%


0.52
3.27		3.79


Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lyon
Brest		59.0%
18.6%		22.4%
+170
+156
+170
+150
0
1		-0.97437-0.96703-1.68147
Lorient
Nantes		25.0%
47.4%		27.6%
+205
+149
+190
+140
3
5		-0.93143-0.92553-0.74712
Toulouse
Marseille		5.0%
82.8%		12.3%
+615
-202
+600
-225
0
0		-1.61813-1.58587-2.09948
Montpellier
Strasbourg		33.0%
37.4%		29.6%
+195
+205
+145
+185
2
2		-1.22591-1.27558-1.21817
Monaco
Lorient		48.7%
26.1%		25.2%
-121
+380
-130
+325
2
2		-1.41441-1.43557-1.37749
Lille
Rennes		49.9%
23.9%		26.2%
+265
+120
+225
+115
2
2		-1.29324-1.33025-1.33930
Montpellier
Lille		18.3%
58.3%		23.5%
+300
-108
+280
-110
0
1		-0.68072-0.69555-0.53998
Lorient
Le Havre		40.2%
30.2%		29.5%
+200
+165
+200
+150
0
3		-0.99277-0.96582-1.19706
Lens
Monaco		15.3%
64.8%		19.9%
+265
-103
+245
+100
0
3		-0.71366-0.74156-0.43413
Rennes
Brest		41.1%
30.3%		28.5%
+110
+256
+105
+260
0
0		-1.31520-1.30280-1.25439
Marseille
Nantes		44.9%
27.1%		28.0%
-168
+470
-160
+435
1
1		-1.51077-1.46547-1.27247
Lille
Lorient		64.6%
14.4%		21.0%
-108
+315
-105
+290
1
4		-1.45312-1.41005-1.94072
Toulouse
Strasbourg		6.8%
78.5%		14.7%
+260
+115
+245
+110
0
2		-0.79367-0.79239-0.24207
Reims
Montpellier		31.4%
36.1%		32.5%
+220
+125
+210
+130
3
1		-1.19730-1.16970-1.15712
Le Havre
Rennes		14.5%
63.4%		22.1%
+585
-195
+570
-200
2
2		-1.51531-1.50593-1.50824
Monaco
Nantes		39.7%
33.2%		27.1%
-120
+345
-125
+320
3
3		-1.39679-1.40985-1.30424
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.98838 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.99015 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.53496
-0.54657
-0.54480

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.