France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedNantes
Paris Saint-Germain 		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%


0.52
3.27		3.79


Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rennes
Lens		52.6%
21.5%		25.9%
+207
+135
+195
+135
1
1		-1.29938-1.30177-1.34946
Strasbourg
Monaco		30.4%
43.5%		26.1%
+336
-130
+320
-130
0
3		-0.60270-0.61954-0.83133
Nantes
Lille		14.3%
64.8%		20.9%
+650
-225
+650
-240
0
2		-0.39701-0.39686-0.43464
Montpellier
Lyon		20.0%
56.1%		23.9%
+290
-110
+310
-125
4
1		-1.38482-1.45925-1.61074
Lyon
Strasbourg		49.3%
24.9%		25.7%
+179
+150
+185
+145
1
2		-0.95112-0.94384-1.39006
Toulouse
Nantes		8.3%
75.0%		16.7%
+143
+206
+150
+195
2
1		-0.91569-0.94887-2.49109
Le Havre
Montpellier		14.3%
63.6%		22.0%
+460
-140
+410
-125
2
2		-1.34396-1.33003-1.51267
Lorient
Paris Saint-Germain		2.5%
90.6%		6.9%

+710
-275
0
0		-1.68077-2.67032
Reims
Marseille		26.2%
43.4%		30.4%
+295
-105
+335
-110
1
2		-0.69716-0.67391-0.83586
Lille
Nice		60.3%
18.1%		21.5%
+194
+146
+170
+155
1
1		-1.29488-1.28942-1.53591
Lille
Troyes		74.8%
8.5%		16.6%
-550
+1300
-575
+1100
1
1		-2.17463-2.19678-1.79438
Montpellier
Reims		29.4%
38.7%		31.8%
+300
-125
+280
-120
3
1		-1.42064-1.38617-1.22254
Rennes
Brest		41.1%
30.3%		28.5%
-140
+375
-145
+370
2
1		-0.57323-0.57476-0.88887
Lyon
Nice		58.0%
19.9%		22.0%
+165
+142
+150
+145
1
3		-0.91767-0.94685-1.61440
Strasbourg
Lorient		44.2%
27.7%		28.1%
+130
+211
+120
+215
1
2		-1.16816-1.19600-1.28413
Angers
Nantes		30.4%
41.5%		28.2%
+550
-200
+485
-200
0
1		-0.43821-0.45462-0.88008
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.98838 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.99015 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.53496
-0.54657
-0.54480

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.