France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 20 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
10/08/2023 01:00 PM	Toulouse Brest	9.4% 73.5%	17.1%	+425 -140 +390 -135	1 1	-1.38107-1.35600	-1.76750
10/08/2023 11:00 AM	Le Havre Marseille	10.9% 70.0%	19.1%	+625 -207 +565 -215	0 3	-0.41879-0.43329	-0.35673
10/07/2023 07:00 PM	Monaco Reims	31.4% 39.8%	28.8%	+156 +174 +160 +160	3 1	-0.96202-1.00518	-1.15897
10/06/2023 07:00 PM	Nantes Strasbourg	27.6% 44.3%	28.0%	+235 +139 +230 +130	2 1	-1.23326-1.24303	-1.28609
10/01/2023 06:45 PM	Nantes Rennes	26.5% 45.5%	28.0%	+433 -150 +475 -170	1 3	-0.54185-0.50898	-0.78735
10/01/2023 03:05 PM	Montpellier Lorient	45.7% 26.3%	28.0%	+132 +216 +125 +210	3 0	-0.87424-0.86232	-0.78336
10/01/2023 01:00 PM	Brest Nice	30.9% 42.5%	26.5%	+370 -120 +385 -140	0 0	-1.35615-1.38633	-1.32667
09/30/2023 07:00 PM	Marseille Monaco	38.6% 34.4%	27.0%	+180 +148 +180 +140	2 3	-0.93151-0.92213	-1.06732
09/29/2023 07:00 PM	Lens Strasbourg	16.9% 59.9%	23.1%	+101 +308 +100 +280	1 0	-0.71832-0.74482	-1.77537
09/26/2023 07:00 PM	Reims Lille	19.0% 54.8%	26.2%	+303 -113 +285 -110	2 1	-1.42824-1.39707	-1.65884
09/24/2023 03:05 PM	Rennes Montpellier	31.2% 39.1%	29.7%	+161 +180 +155 +170	0 0	-1.28866-1.28942	-1.21534
09/24/2023 01:00 PM	Toulouse Lens	14.6% 63.4%	22.0%	+655 -215 +600 -220	1 2	-0.40932-0.42593	-0.45536
09/23/2023 07:00 PM	Lyon Brest	59.0% 18.6%	22.4%	+170 +156 +170 +150	0 1	-0.97437-0.96703	-1.68147
09/23/2023 03:00 PM	Lorient Nantes	25.0% 47.4%	27.6%	+205 +149 +190 +140	3 5	-0.93143-0.92553	-0.74712
09/17/2023 03:05 PM	Toulouse Marseille	5.0% 82.8%	12.3%	+615 -202 +600 -225	0 0	-1.61813-1.58587	-2.09948
09/17/2023 01:00 PM	Montpellier Strasbourg	33.0% 37.4%	29.6%	+195 +205 +145 +185	2 2	-1.22591-1.27558	-1.21817

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.