France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedNantes
Paris Saint-Germain 		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%


0.52
3.27		3.79


Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Toulouse
Monaco		5.9%
82.3%		11.8%
+575
-260
+540
-260
2
1		-1.94456-1.90879-2.82751
Monaco
Rennes		33.6%
39.2%		27.2%
+282
-103
+255
-105
0
2		-0.70055-0.71812-0.93545
Paris Saint-Germain
Strasbourg		84.6%
4.8%		10.6%

-140
+350
1
1		-1.45925-2.24205
Brest
Marseille		18.5%
58.1%		23.4%
+873
-330
+800
-330
2
1		-2.30399-2.24838-1.68670
Reims
Lyon		20.8%
52.8%		26.5%
+341
-145
+320
-150
0
3		-0.54695-0.56261-0.63881
Nice
Montpellier		25.2%
49.3%		25.5%
+197
+143
+185
+140
3
2		-1.11124-1.09919-1.37805
Nantes
Lille		14.3%
64.8%		20.9%
+692
-228
+600
-230
1
2		-0.39087-0.41228-0.43464
Troyes
Angers		16.9%
60.0%		23.1%
+354
-134
+330
-135
1
2		-0.58263-0.60398-0.51059
Lens
Lorient		26.1%
46.1%		27.8%
-144
+431
-150
+380
3
1		-0.55243-0.55893-1.34232
Strasbourg
Troyes		57.8%
17.7%		24.4%
-230
+636
-205
+585
1
1		-1.64979-1.59475-1.40915
Angers
Reims		23.6%
48.2%		28.2%
+677
-267
+615
-225
2
2		-1.77892-1.56576-1.26606
Toulouse
Nice		8.6%
76.1%		15.3%
+264
+101
+265
-110
0
0		-1.39308-1.42341-1.87915
Marseille
Lille		23.3%
51.1%		25.6%
+161
+177
+155
+165
1
2		-1.04358-1.02449-0.67231
Montpellier
Nantes		37.3%
32.8%		29.9%
+255
+118
+240
+110
3
0		-1.28880-1.27447-0.98669
Monaco
Lyon		20.7%
57.4%		21.9%
+178
+140
+170
+135
1
3		-0.89789-0.90231-0.55546
Angers
Marseille		19.7%
56.4%		23.9%
+1729
-590
+1600
-700
1
3		-0.17531-0.18372-0.57277
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.98838 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.99015 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.53496
-0.54657
-0.54480

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.