France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 20 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
09/17/2023 11:00 AM	Monaco Lorient	48.7% 26.1%	25.2%	-121 +380 -130 +325	2 2	-1.41441-1.43557	-1.37749
09/16/2023 03:00 PM	Lille Rennes	49.9% 23.9%	26.2%	+265 +120 +225 +115	2 2	-1.29324-1.33025	-1.33930
09/03/2023 01:00 PM	Montpellier Lille	18.3% 58.3%	23.5%	+300 -108 +280 -110	0 1	-0.68072-0.69555	-0.53998
09/03/2023 01:00 PM	Lorient Le Havre	40.2% 30.2%	29.5%	+200 +165 +200 +150	0 3	-0.99277-0.96582	-1.19706
09/02/2023 07:00 PM	Lens Monaco	15.3% 64.8%	19.9%	+265 -103 +245 +100	0 3	-0.71366-0.74156	-0.43413
09/02/2023 03:00 PM	Rennes Brest	41.1% 30.3%	28.5%	+110 +256 +105 +260	0 0	-1.31520-1.30280	-1.25439
09/01/2023 07:00 PM	Marseille Nantes	44.9% 27.1%	28.0%	-168 +470 -160 +435	1 1	-1.51077-1.46547	-1.27247
08/27/2023 03:05 PM	Lille Lorient	64.6% 14.4%	21.0%	-108 +315 -105 +290	1 4	-1.45312-1.41005	-1.94072
08/27/2023 01:00 PM	Toulouse Strasbourg	6.8% 78.5%	14.7%	+260 +115 +245 +110	0 2	-0.79367-0.79239	-0.24207
08/27/2023 01:00 PM	Reims Montpellier	31.4% 36.1%	32.5%	+220 +125 +210 +130	3 1	-1.19730-1.16970	-1.15712
08/27/2023 11:00 AM	Le Havre Rennes	14.5% 63.4%	22.1%	+585 -195 +570 -200	2 2	-1.51531-1.50593	-1.50824
08/25/2023 07:00 PM	Monaco Nantes	39.7% 33.2%	27.1%	-120 +345 -125 +320	3 3	-1.39679-1.40985	-1.30424
08/20/2023 06:45 PM	Rennes Lens	52.6% 21.5%	25.9%	+207 +135 +195 +135	1 1	-1.29938-1.30177	-1.34946
08/20/2023 05:00 PM	Strasbourg Monaco	30.4% 43.5%	26.1%	+336 -130 +320 -130	0 3	-0.60270-0.61954	-0.83133
08/20/2023 11:00 AM	Nantes Lille	14.3% 64.8%	20.9%	+650 -225 +650 -240	0 2	-0.39701-0.39686	-0.43464
08/19/2023 05:00 PM	Montpellier Lyon	20.0% 56.1%	23.9%	+290 -110 +310 -125	4 1	-1.38482-1.45925	-1.61074

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.