France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedNantes
Paris Saint-Germain 		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%


0.52
3.27		3.79


Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lille
Monaco		50.7%
25.2%		24.1%
+143
+194
+135
+190
0
0		-1.33598-1.32795-1.42225
Nantes
Toulouse		69.0%
11.3%		19.6%
+223
+125
+205
+120
0
0		-1.33632-1.35969-1.62791
Troyes
Rennes		12.5%
66.2%		21.2%
+1373
-515
+1175
-550
0
4		-0.20361-0.21850-0.41187
Lorient
Montpellier		20.2%
54.3%		25.5%
+320
-106
+310
-120
1
1		-1.32904-1.38617-1.36814
Nice
Strasbourg		26.7%
47.7%		25.6%
+200
+156
+195
+140
0
2		-0.95792-0.92402-0.73946
Reims
Lens		52.3%
20.1%		27.6%
+472
-165
+475
-195
1
2		-0.48854-0.46498-1.60385
Paris Saint-Germain
Troyes		91.0%
2.3%		6.7%

-400
+900
3
1		-0.27338-0.09389
Montpellier
Lyon		20.0%
56.1%		23.9%
+392
-141
+375
-150
4
5		-0.55670-0.56103-0.57748
Strasbourg
Nantes		35.8%
34.4%		29.8%
+184
+182
+160
+185
2
0		-1.06285-1.00709-1.02591
Brest
Lorient		35.6%
34.8%		29.6%
+201
+163
+200
+135
1
2		-0.99163-0.90604-1.05501
Monaco
Angers		42.3%
31.9%		25.8%
-166
+465
-175
+460
2
1		-0.49944-0.48379-0.85979
Marseille
Lens		60.5%
16.6%		22.9%
+206
+147
+190
+140
1
2		-0.92143-0.92553-1.79721
Lille
Reims		46.4%
24.7%		28.9%
-100
+277
+105
+245
0
1		-1.34788-1.28870-1.39812
Rennes
Nice		40.0%
32.4%		27.6%
+183
+165
+185
+145
1
2		-0.99085-0.94788-1.12655
Nantes
Brest		34.8%
35.7%		29.6%
+232
+152
+215
+145
0
2		-0.93961-0.94317-1.03092
Lens
Toulouse		55.4%
19.6%		25.1%
-157
+437
-160
+390
1
0		-0.51443-0.53623-0.59083
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.98838 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.99015 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.53496
-0.54657
-0.54480

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.