France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 20 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
08/13/2023 06:45 PM	Lyon Strasbourg	49.3% 24.9%	25.7%	+179 +150 +185 +145	1 2	-0.95112-0.94384	-1.39006
08/13/2023 01:00 PM	Toulouse Nantes	8.3% 75.0%	16.7%	+143 +206 +150 +195	2 1	-0.91569-0.94887	-2.49109
08/13/2023 01:00 PM	Le Havre Montpellier	14.3% 63.6%	22.0%	+460 -140 +410 -125	2 2	-1.34396-1.33003	-1.51267
08/12/2023 07:00 PM	Lorient Paris Saint-Germain	2.5% 90.6%	6.9%	+710 -275	0 0	-1.68077	-2.67032
08/12/2023 03:00 PM	Reims Marseille	26.2% 43.4%	30.4%	+295 -105 +335 -110	1 2	-0.69716-0.67391	-0.83586
08/11/2023 07:00 PM	Lille Nice	60.3% 18.1%	21.5%	+194 +146 +170 +155	1 1	-1.29488-1.28942	-1.53591
06/03/2023 07:00 PM	Lille Troyes	74.8% 8.5%	16.6%	-550 +1300 -575 +1100	1 1	-2.17463-2.19678	-1.79438
06/03/2023 07:00 PM	Montpellier Reims	29.4% 38.7%	31.8%	+300 -125 +280 -120	3 1	-1.42064-1.38617	-1.22254
06/03/2023 07:00 PM	Rennes Brest	41.1% 30.3%	28.5%	-140 +375 -145 +370	2 1	-0.57323-0.57476	-0.88887
06/03/2023 07:00 PM	Lyon Nice	58.0% 19.9%	22.0%	+165 +142 +150 +145	1 3	-0.91767-0.94685	-1.61440
06/03/2023 07:00 PM	Strasbourg Lorient	44.2% 27.7%	28.1%	+130 +211 +120 +215	1 2	-1.16816-1.19600	-1.28413
06/03/2023 07:00 PM	Angers Nantes	30.4% 41.5%	28.2%	+550 -200 +485 -200	0 1	-0.43821-0.45462	-0.88008
06/03/2023 07:00 PM	Toulouse Monaco	5.9% 82.3%	11.8%	+575 -260 +540 -260	2 1	-1.94456-1.90879	-2.82751
05/27/2023 07:00 PM	Monaco Rennes	33.6% 39.2%	27.2%	+282 -103 +255 -105	0 2	-0.70055-0.71812	-0.93545
05/27/2023 07:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Strasbourg	84.6% 4.8%	10.6%	-140 +350	1 1	-1.45925	-2.24205
05/27/2023 07:00 PM	Brest Marseille	18.5% 58.1%	23.4%	+873 -330 +800 -330	2 1	-2.30399-2.24838	-1.68670

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.