France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedNantes
Paris Saint-Germain 		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%


0.52
3.27		3.79


Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lorient
Paris Saint-Germain		2.5%
90.6%		6.9%

+1150
-625
3
1		-2.57755-3.68290
Nice
Troyes		52.6%
22.5%		25.0%
-145
+438
-135
+350
1
0		-0.55003-0.60605-0.64308
Angers
Rennes		25.2%
48.3%		26.5%
+1000
-324
+900
-350
2
4		-0.29465-0.30028-0.72853
Montpellier
Monaco		31.8%
41.5%		26.7%
+510
-183
+470
-205
4
0		-1.83590-1.79084-1.14621
Lyon
Strasbourg		49.3%
24.9%		25.7%
+173
+170
+170
+170
2
1		-1.03131-1.03176-0.70648
Marseille
Lyon		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+181
+165
+165
+165
2
1		-1.05194-1.02223-1.37078
Rennes
Montpellier		31.2%
39.1%		29.7%
+141
+229
+125
+225
0
1		-1.20381-1.22806-0.93785
Troyes
Nantes		15.8%
60.5%		23.7%
+600
-194
+530
-200
2
2		-1.54595-1.53294-1.44151
Toulouse
Lorient		11.3%
69.0%		19.7%
+184
+159
+185
+140
1
0		-1.06352-1.09919-2.17993
Strasbourg
Reims		28.3%
40.6%		31.0%
+238
+127
+265
+100
2
0		-1.23974-1.34519-1.26061
Monaco
Lens		56.3%
20.8%		22.9%
+251
+115
+240
+110
0
3		-0.78555-0.79264-1.57036
Paris Saint-Germain
Angers		87.6%
3.7%		8.7%

-550
+1400
2
1		-0.21567-0.13243
Troyes
Marseille		9.4%
72.4%		18.2%
+1368
-450
+1150
-500
1
3		-0.22726-0.23231-0.32338
Lorient
Monaco		19.7%
57.7%		22.6%
+885
-310
+800
-310
1
3		-0.29961-0.31987-0.55061
Nice
Brest		34.2%
38.6%		27.1%
+203
+165
+190
+150
0
1		-0.98953-0.96748-0.95099
Montpellier
Lille		18.3%
58.3%		23.5%
+535
-183
+480
-190
1
2		-0.45271-0.47383-0.53998
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.98838 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.99015 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.53496
-0.54657
-0.54480

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.