France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedNantes
Paris Saint-Germain 		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%


0.52
3.27		3.79


Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lens
Paris Saint-Germain		2.1%
91.7%		6.1%

+340
-135
1
3		-0.60475-0.08648
Reims
Rennes		31.7%
35.8%		32.5%
+237
+125
+225
+120
0
3		-0.83748-0.83924-1.02680
Lyon
Toulouse		83.8%
4.9%		11.3%
+111
+250
+105
+230
2
1		-0.76522-0.76718-0.17637
Marseille
Lorient		53.4%
21.0%		25.6%
-175
+503
-185
+475
0
0		-1.52823-1.53067-1.36352
Monaco
Nantes		39.7%
33.2%		27.1%
-104
+300
-105
+280
2
2		-1.38661-1.34289-1.30424
Brest
Reims		22.2%
49.7%		28.1%
+471
-152
+435
-160
1
1		-1.43297-1.43729-1.27050
Toulouse
Montpellier		6.5%
79.0%		14.5%
+279
+100
+265
+100
2
1		-1.35569-1.34155-2.73908
Rennes
Lyon		19.8%
56.4%		23.8%
+231
+128
+225
+120
1
3		-0.84248-0.83924-0.57286
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%

-115
+310
2
0		-0.67360-0.12528
Lille
Angers		59.5%
18.1%		22.4%
-255
+750
-260
+675
0
1		-2.16613-2.09964-1.70837
Strasbourg
Lens		51.5%
22.5%		26.0%
+573
-186
+550
-185
1
2		-0.45612-0.47239-1.49192
Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain		6.5%
81.3%		12.2%

+550
-240
1
0		-1.92080-2.73229
Strasbourg
Monaco		30.4%
43.5%		26.1%
+520
-172
+490
-185
3
4		-0.47454-0.48204-0.83133
Nice
Angers		32.7%
40.7%		26.6%
-145
+482
-145
+470
1
1		-1.38470-1.31476-1.32403
Toulouse
Brest		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+165
+177
+160
+165
1
3		-1.03950-1.02510-0.30791
Reims
Nantes		37.2%
30.7%		32.1%
+118
+263
+125
+225
3
0		-0.79902-0.86034-0.98980
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.98838 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.99015 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.53496
-0.54657
-0.54480

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.