France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 20 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/13/2023 03:00 PM	Nice Strasbourg	26.7% 47.7%	25.6%	+200 +156 +195 +140	0 2	-0.95792-0.92402	-0.73946
05/12/2023 07:00 PM	Reims Lens	52.3% 20.1%	27.6%	+472 -165 +475 -195	1 2	-0.48854-0.46498	-1.60385
05/07/2023 06:45 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Troyes	91.0% 2.3%	6.7%	-400 +900	3 1	-0.27338	-0.09389
05/07/2023 03:05 PM	Montpellier Lyon	20.0% 56.1%	23.9%	+392 -141 +375 -150	4 5	-0.55670-0.56103	-0.57748
05/07/2023 01:00 PM	Strasbourg Nantes	35.8% 34.4%	29.8%	+184 +182 +160 +185	2 0	-1.06285-1.00709	-1.02591
05/07/2023 01:00 PM	Brest Lorient	35.6% 34.8%	29.6%	+201 +163 +200 +135	1 2	-0.99163-0.90604	-1.05501
05/07/2023 11:00 AM	Monaco Angers	42.3% 31.9%	25.8%	-166 +465 -175 +460	2 1	-0.49944-0.48379	-0.85979
05/06/2023 07:00 PM	Marseille Lens	60.5% 16.6%	22.9%	+206 +147 +190 +140	1 2	-0.92143-0.92553	-1.79721
05/06/2023 05:00 PM	Lille Reims	46.4% 24.7%	28.9%	-100 +277 +105 +245	0 1	-1.34788-1.28870	-1.39812
05/06/2023 03:00 PM	Rennes Nice	40.0% 32.4%	27.6%	+183 +165 +185 +145	1 2	-0.99085-0.94788	-1.12655
05/03/2023 07:00 PM	Nantes Brest	34.8% 35.7%	29.6%	+232 +152 +215 +145	0 2	-0.93961-0.94317	-1.03092
05/02/2023 07:00 PM	Lens Toulouse	55.4% 19.6%	25.1%	-157 +437 -160 +390	1 0	-0.51443-0.53623	-0.59083
04/30/2023 03:05 PM	Lorient Paris Saint-Germain	2.5% 90.6%	6.9%	+1150 -625	3 1	-2.57755	-3.68290
04/30/2023 01:00 PM	Nice Troyes	52.6% 22.5%	25.0%	-145 +438 -135 +350	1 0	-0.55003-0.60605	-0.64308
04/30/2023 01:00 PM	Angers Rennes	25.2% 48.3%	26.5%	+1000 -324 +900 -350	2 4	-0.29465-0.30028	-0.72853
04/30/2023 11:00 AM	Montpellier Monaco	31.8% 41.5%	26.7%	+510 -183 +470 -205	4 0	-1.83590-1.79084	-1.14621

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.