France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedNantes
Paris Saint-Germain 		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%


0.52
3.27		3.79


Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lorient
Lille		10.5%
71.6%		17.9%
+700
-255
+665
-270
1
3		-0.35250-0.36475-0.33381
Lens
Rennes		16.1%
60.9%		23.0%
+163
+208
+155
+185
1
0		-0.98714-0.98556-1.82468
Montpellier
Marseille		25.8%
46.5%		27.6%

+450
-245
1
1		-1.56676-1.28649
Montpellier
Marseille		25.8%
46.5%		27.6%
+530
-184
+490
-180
1
1		-1.53252-1.51154-1.28649
Marseille
Reims		35.3%
32.4%		32.3%
+141
+209
+140
+200
2
1		-0.90684-0.92284-1.04245
Rennes
Paris Saint-Germain		3.8%
86.8%		9.3%

+465
-190
2
0		-1.78005-3.26335
Brest
Troyes		49.3%
23.6%		27.0%
+148
+213
+145
+200
2
2		-1.22997-1.22670-1.30822
Lorient
Nice		26.9%
47.1%		26.0%
+485
-149
+460
-160
1
1		-1.40544-1.41014-1.34811
Angers
Lens		44.9%
28.0%		27.1%
+1208
-418
+1200
-500
0
3		-0.23846-0.23408-1.27450
Lille
Toulouse		84.4%
4.5%		11.1%
+103
+264
+100
+260
2
0		-0.73151-0.74360-0.16953
Nantes
Lyon		15.7%
62.9%		21.4%
+456
-158
+460
-175
1
1		-1.46681-1.49593-1.54103
Strasbourg
Marseille		24.6%
48.6%		26.8%
+759
-240
+700
-250
2
2		-1.62020-1.60674-1.31531
Reims
Monaco		32.2%
39.0%		28.8%
+315
-108
+320
-120
1
0		-1.44286-1.48408-1.13283
Nice
Nantes		30.7%
42.1%		27.2%
+169
+194
+155
+195
2
2		-1.18725-1.19485-1.30243
Troyes
Lorient		20.9%
52.4%		26.7%
+390
-129
+360
-130
0
2		-0.60068-0.62207-0.64560
Toulouse
Angers		8.7%
75.0%		16.2%
+103
+295
-105
+275
2
0		-0.72759-0.72054-2.43657
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.98838 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.99015 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.53496
-0.54657
-0.54480

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.