France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%


1.77
0.75		2.52


Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%


3.43
0.64		4.07


Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Paris Saint-Germain
Brest		87.9%
3.6%		8.5%

-240
+600
2
1		-0.39782-0.12886
Lyon
Lille		30.2%
43.0%		26.8%
+325
-114
+325
-125
3
3		-1.38894-1.39744-1.31822
Marseille
Rennes		38.2%
32.1%		29.6%
+145
+200
+140
+195
1
0		-0.93107-0.91997-0.96215
Lorient
Lyon		11.5%
70.1%		18.4%
+490
-175
+450
-175
0
0		-1.51422-1.50810-1.69489
Brest
Strasbourg		24.9%
48.7%		26.4%
+330
+104
+315
+100
1
0		-1.48589-1.47521-1.38990
Angers
Montpellier		25.0%
48.6%		26.4%
+410
-130
+380
-130
0
5		-0.60521-0.62060-0.72218
Monaco
Troyes		62.7%
16.1%		21.2%
-202
+565
-210
+525
2
2		-1.61229-1.58802-1.55202
Nantes
Paris Saint-Germain		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%

+1100
-400
2
4		-0.27194-0.11935
Lille
Lens		70.7%
11.0%		18.2%
+198
+148
+200
+145
1
1		-1.25618-1.22670-1.70375
Paris Saint-Germain
Marseille		80.3%
6.7%		13.0%

+140
+175
3
0		-0.92480-0.21957
Nice
Monaco		24.8%
52.2%		23.0%
+285
+105
+270
+100
3
0		-1.37690-1.35899-1.39364
Toulouse
Reims		6.4%
77.2%		16.4%
+270
+110
+255
+110
0
3		-0.76893-0.79264-0.25886
Rennes
Nantes		37.0%
33.0%		30.0%
+123
+258
+120
+240
1
0		-0.83683-0.83884-0.99441
Lens
Montpellier		15.9%
61.3%		22.7%
-119
+370
-125
+365
1
1		-1.32441-1.32818-1.48188
Lyon
Angers		57.3%
19.8%		22.9%
-123
+370
-120
+340
3
1		-0.61552-0.65541-0.55752
Brest
Lille		12.4%
68.6%		19.0%
+900
-290
+775
-275
1
2		-0.32464-0.36057-0.37641
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.98838 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.99015 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.53496
-0.54657
-0.54480

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.