France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%


1.77
0.75		2.52


Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-107

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Marseille
Toulouse		78.7%
6.7%		14.6%
+101
+279
-115
+300
3
2		-0.71968-0.67598-0.23951
Nantes
Lens		46.1%
26.2%		27.7%
+675
-188
+650
-210
1
3		-0.44079-0.43989-1.33930
Montpellier
Troyes		59.0%
16.7%		24.3%
+137
+239
+120
+240
1
0		-0.87822-0.83884-0.52756
Monaco
Brest		44.1%
30.2%		25.7%
-118
+350
-125
+345
2
1		-0.63288-0.63709-0.81821
Lille
Paris Saint-Germain		7.3%
79.4%		13.3%

+410
-165
3
4		-0.52379-0.23043
Angers
Strasbourg		26.4%
47.1%		26.5%
+366
-108
+345
-115
1
2		-0.67718-0.67399-0.75373
Lens
Lyon		8.8%
75.5%		15.7%
+196
+161
+185
+150
1
2		-0.97864-0.96451-0.28071
Lorient
Nantes		25.0%
47.4%		27.6%
+308
+101
+295
+100
0
1		-0.71458-0.74354-0.74712
Troyes
Reims		11.9%
64.8%		23.3%
+520
-178
+515
-190
0
4		-0.46935-0.47456-0.43393
Brest
Montpellier		23.6%
50.2%		26.2%
+230
+141
+215
+130
0
3		-0.89771-0.88242-0.68953
Strasbourg
Lille		17.2%
60.2%		22.5%
+675
-224
+625
-225
0
2		-0.39246-0.41885-0.50667
Rennes
Toulouse		73.8%
8.9%		17.3%
+156
+201
+145
+195
1
3		-1.11456-1.13075-2.41811
Paris Saint-Germain
Monaco		85.2%
5.0%		9.7%

+200
+135
1
3		-0.90199-2.99274
Nice
Marseille		19.8%
57.2%		22.9%
+465
-144
+420
-145
3
1		-1.75175-1.69821-1.62004
Lens
Brest		22.8%
51.6%		25.6%
-113
+358
-125
+365
1
1		-1.33716-1.32818-1.36090
Montpellier
Strasbourg		33.0%
37.4%		29.6%
+291
+115
+290
+105
0
2		-0.78034-0.76845-0.98283
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.98838 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.99015 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.53496
-0.54657
-0.54480

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.