France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 21 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/09/2023 03:05 PM	Monaco Nantes	39.7% 33.2%	27.1%	-104 +300 -105 +280	2 2	-1.38661-1.34289	-1.30424
04/09/2023 01:00 PM	Brest Reims	22.2% 49.7%	28.1%	+471 -152 +435 -160	1 1	-1.43297-1.43729	-1.27050
04/09/2023 01:00 PM	Toulouse Montpellier	6.5% 79.0%	14.5%	+279 +100 +265 +100	2 1	-1.35569-1.34155	-2.73908
04/09/2023 11:00 AM	Rennes Lyon	19.8% 56.4%	23.8%	+231 +128 +225 +120	1 3	-0.84248-0.83924	-0.57286
04/08/2023 07:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Nice	88.2% 3.7%	8.1%	-115 +310	2 0	-0.67360	-0.12528
04/08/2023 03:00 PM	Lille Angers	59.5% 18.1%	22.4%	-255 +750 -260 +675	0 1	-2.16613-2.09964	-1.70837
04/07/2023 07:00 PM	Strasbourg Lens	51.5% 22.5%	26.0%	+573 -186 +550 -185	1 2	-0.45612-0.47239	-1.49192
04/02/2023 06:45 PM	Lyon Paris Saint-Germain	6.5% 81.3%	12.2%	+550 -240	1 0	-1.92080	-2.73229
04/02/2023 03:06 PM	Strasbourg Monaco	30.4% 43.5%	26.1%	+520 -172 +490 -185	3 4	-0.47454-0.48204	-0.83133
04/02/2023 01:01 PM	Nice Angers	32.7% 40.7%	26.6%	-145 +482 -145 +470	1 1	-1.38470-1.31476	-1.32403
04/02/2023 01:01 PM	Toulouse Brest	9.4% 73.5%	17.1%	+165 +177 +160 +165	1 3	-1.03950-1.02510	-0.30791
04/02/2023 01:01 PM	Reims Nantes	37.2% 30.7%	32.1%	+118 +263 +125 +225	3 0	-0.79902-0.86034	-0.98980
04/02/2023 11:00 AM	Lorient Lille	10.5% 71.6%	17.9%	+700 -255 +665 -270	1 3	-0.35250-0.36475	-0.33381
04/01/2023 07:00 PM	Lens Rennes	16.1% 60.9%	23.0%	+163 +208 +155 +185	1 0	-0.98714-0.98556	-1.82468
03/31/2023 07:00 PM	Montpellier Marseille	25.8% 46.5%	27.6%	+450 -245	1 1	-1.56676	-1.28649
03/31/2023 07:00 PM	Montpellier Marseille	25.8% 46.5%	27.6%	+530 -184 +490 -180	1 1	-1.53252-1.51154	-1.28649

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.