France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+385
+102

1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-108

Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Angers
Lorient		37.6%
33.5%		28.8%
+348
+102
+295
-105
0
0		-1.28096-1.30258-1.24361
Lille
Rennes		49.9%
23.9%		26.2%
+224
+145
+210
+135
3
1		-1.19076-1.18127-0.69497
Lyon
Troyes		73.6%
9.3%		17.0%
-156
+440
-160
+415
3
1		-0.51691-0.53479-0.30629
Toulouse
Paris Saint-Germain		1.5%
93.1%		5.3%

+575
-250
1
2		-0.38632-0.07120
Strasbourg
Rennes		30.5%
40.5%		29.0%
+604
-175
+530
-180
0
3		-0.46837-0.49213-0.90365
Nice
Lens		45.7%
28.2%		26.1%
+457
-125
+440
-135
1
0		-1.73721-1.73472-0.78309
Brest
Lyon		13.6%
67.0%		19.3%
+510
-185
+500
-190
0
0		-1.55604-1.54721-1.64434
Paris Saint-Germain
Montpellier		83.6%
5.1%		11.3%

-330
+750
3
1		-0.31516-0.17902
Lorient
Reims		19.1%
53.4%		27.4%
+375
-121
+350
-125
2
4		-0.61869-0.63824-0.62736
Marseille
Nantes		44.9%
27.1%		28.0%
-129
+420
-140
+390
2
0		-0.58917-0.58834-0.80162
Reims
Paris Saint-Germain		4.2%
84.5%		11.2%
+900
-400
+1000
-420
1
1		-1.92422-1.92292-2.18774
Angers
Brest		33.8%
38.2%		28.1%
+270
+123
+255
+110
0
4		-0.82082-0.79264-0.96299
Toulouse
Strasbourg		6.8%
78.5%		14.7%
+215
+148
+195
+145
2
1		-1.15379-1.12646-2.68370
Lille
Nice		60.3%
18.1%		21.5%
+150
+220
+135
+215
0
1		-1.17857-1.19683-1.70722
Monaco
Marseille		27.1%
47.7%		25.1%
+275
+103
+275
+100
1
1		-1.35720-1.31420-1.38071
Lens
Troyes		37.2%
32.3%		30.5%
-168
+514
-170
+500
1
1		-1.47709-1.42205-1.18744
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.98838 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.99015 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.53496
-0.54657
-0.54480

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.