France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+385
+102

1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-108

Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rennes
Lorient		45.4%
26.5%		28.1%
+105
+322
-105
+295
1
2		-1.46024-1.42354-1.32772
Paris Saint-Germain
Rennes		83.7%
5.1%		11.2%
-153
+430
-170
+430
0
1		-1.69876-1.71730-2.97966
Brest
Toulouse		66.9%
12.9%		20.1%
+330
-112
+325
-120
1
1		-1.36649-1.35810-1.60336
Nice
Reims		23.8%
49.1%		27.0%
+213
+153
+195
+150
0
0		-1.20728-1.21335-1.30856
Nantes
Montpellier		26.2%
45.8%		28.0%
+217
+147
+195
+140
3
0		-1.16806-1.13457-1.33888
Troyes
Lille		6.3%
79.8%		14.0%
+660
-205
+620
-225
1
5		-0.41819-0.41977-0.22607
Strasbourg
Lyon		18.8%
58.1%		23.0%
+463
-160
+450
-165
2
1		-1.74320-1.75198-1.66967
Lorient
Marseille		15.7%
61.7%		22.6%
+650
-217
+675
-260
1
3		-0.39672-0.37541-0.48347
Marseille
Troyes		65.9%
12.9%		21.3%
-139
+433
-150
+425
2
0		-0.56040-0.55982-0.41762
Lens
Strasbourg		16.9%
59.9%		23.1%
+115
+290
+105
+280
2
2		-1.27422-1.25727-1.46434
Angers
Paris Saint-Germain		2.9%
89.8%		7.2%
+1831
-488
+1500
-600
0
2		-0.16646-0.20168-0.10714
Monaco
Lorient		48.7%
26.1%		25.2%
-117
+357
-125
+320
2
2		-1.39429-1.40985-1.37749
Montpellier
Nice		40.3%
32.1%		27.5%
+350
-110
+330
-115
1
6		-0.65855-0.67368-1.13494
Lyon
Nantes		54.5%
21.1%		24.4%
+115
+271
+100
+280
0
0		-1.32501-1.30048-1.41104
Lille
Brest		61.0%
17.0%		22.1%
-111
+347
-115
+320
0
0		-1.33808-1.33044-1.51140
Marseille
Monaco		38.6%
34.4%		27.0%
+209
+140
+195
+135
3
2		-1.14608-1.13082-0.95132
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.98838 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.99015 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.53496
-0.54657
-0.54480

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.