France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 21 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
03/05/2023 02:00 PM	Brest Strasbourg	24.9% 48.7%	26.4%	+330 +104 +315 +100	1 0	-1.48589-1.47521	-1.38990
03/05/2023 02:00 PM	Angers Montpellier	25.0% 48.6%	26.4%	+410 -130 +380 -130	0 5	-0.60521-0.62060	-0.72218
03/05/2023 12:00 PM	Monaco Troyes	62.7% 16.1%	21.2%	-202 +565 -210 +525	2 2	-1.61229-1.58802	-1.55202
03/04/2023 08:00 PM	Nantes Paris Saint-Germain	3.1% 88.8%	8.1%	+1100 -400	2 4	-0.27194	-0.11935
03/04/2023 04:00 PM	Lille Lens	70.7% 11.0%	18.2%	+198 +148 +200 +145	1 1	-1.25618-1.22670	-1.70375
02/26/2023 07:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Marseille	80.3% 6.7%	13.0%	+140 +175	3 0	-0.92480	-0.21957
02/26/2023 04:06 PM	Nice Monaco	24.8% 52.2%	23.0%	+285 +105 +270 +100	3 0	-1.37690-1.35899	-1.39364
02/26/2023 02:00 PM	Toulouse Reims	6.4% 77.2%	16.4%	+270 +110 +255 +110	0 3	-0.76893-0.79264	-0.25886
02/26/2023 02:00 PM	Rennes Nantes	37.0% 33.0%	30.0%	+123 +258 +120 +240	1 0	-0.83683-0.83884	-0.99441
02/25/2023 08:00 PM	Lens Montpellier	15.9% 61.3%	22.7%	-119 +370 -125 +365	1 1	-1.32441-1.32818	-1.48188
02/25/2023 04:00 PM	Lyon Angers	57.3% 19.8%	22.9%	-123 +370 -120 +340	3 1	-0.61552-0.65541	-0.55752
02/24/2023 08:00 PM	Brest Lille	12.4% 68.6%	19.0%	+900 -290 +775 -275	1 2	-0.32464-0.36057	-0.37641
02/19/2023 07:45 PM	Marseille Toulouse	78.7% 6.7%	14.6%	+101 +279 -115 +300	3 2	-0.71968-0.67598	-0.23951
02/19/2023 04:00 PM	Nantes Lens	46.1% 26.2%	27.7%	+675 -188 +650 -210	1 3	-0.44079-0.43989	-1.33930
02/19/2023 02:00 PM	Montpellier Troyes	59.0% 16.7%	24.3%	+137 +239 +120 +240	1 0	-0.87822-0.83884	-0.52756
02/19/2023 02:00 PM	Monaco Brest	44.1% 30.2%	25.7%	-118 +350 -125 +345	2 1	-0.63288-0.63709	-0.81821

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.