France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+385
+102

1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-108

Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lorient
Strasbourg		21.4%
52.9%		25.6%
+216
+139
+205
+135
1
1		-1.27107-1.25956-1.36145
Reims
Montpellier		31.4%
36.1%		32.5%
+159
+193
+160
+170
1
1		-1.23454-1.26107-1.12507
Troyes
Brest		18.0%
57.8%		24.2%
+272
+110
+255
+105
1
2		-0.75854-0.76776-0.54799
Angers
Lille		13.3%
67.4%		19.3%
+1031
-325
+900
-330
0
1		-0.28598-0.31437-0.39421
Toulouse
Rennes		6.5%
78.9%		14.6%
+460
-160
+470
-180
1
2		-0.51116-0.49143-0.23737
Nice
Lyon		14.5%
66.4%		19.0%
+398
-128
+370
-140
1
1		-1.36979-1.41215-1.65926
Lyon
Marseille		39.8%
32.3%		27.9%
+264
+112
+260
+105
0
1		-0.77457-0.76787-1.13097
Rennes
Lille		18.1%
58.5%		23.4%
+283
+110
+260
+105
1
1		-1.28576-1.30280-1.45235
Brest
Nice		30.9%
42.5%		26.5%
+357
-115
+340
-125
0
1		-0.64798-0.63951-0.85475
Monaco
Toulouse		77.5%
8.2%		14.3%
+122
+225
+110
+220
2
0		-0.81656-0.79248-0.25506
Nantes
Reims		24.6%
45.3%		30.0%
+253
+120
+240
+115
0
1		-0.80937-0.81744-0.79147
Paris Saint-Germain
Lorient		88.7%
3.1%		8.1%
-280
+800
-300
+765
2
1		-0.32881-0.33724-0.11991
Lens
Angers		21.5%
53.8%		24.6%
-152
+484
-160
+435
2
1		-0.52845-0.53649-1.53609
Monaco
Lille		18.8%
59.7%		21.4%
+170
+162
+180
+145
3
4		-0.98313-0.94585-0.51507
Nantes
Nice		33.9%
38.3%		27.8%
+286
+111
+295
+100
1
1		-1.24420-1.25931-1.28039
Lorient
Troyes		43.9%
26.9%		29.2%
+192
+160
+190
+140
2
2		-1.24894-1.28844-1.23158
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.98838 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.99015 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.53496
-0.54657
-0.54480

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.