France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 21 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
02/19/2023 12:01 PM	Lille Paris Saint-Germain	7.3% 79.4%	13.3%	+410 -165	3 4	-0.52379	-0.23043
02/18/2023 08:00 PM	Angers Strasbourg	26.4% 47.1%	26.5%	+366 -108 +345 -115	1 2	-0.67718-0.67399	-0.75373
02/12/2023 07:45 PM	Lens Lyon	8.8% 75.5%	15.7%	+196 +161 +185 +150	1 2	-0.97864-0.96451	-0.28071
02/12/2023 04:05 PM	Lorient Nantes	25.0% 47.4%	27.6%	+308 +101 +295 +100	0 1	-0.71458-0.74354	-0.74712
02/12/2023 02:00 PM	Troyes Reims	11.9% 64.8%	23.3%	+520 -178 +515 -190	0 4	-0.46935-0.47456	-0.43393
02/12/2023 02:00 PM	Brest Montpellier	23.6% 50.2%	26.2%	+230 +141 +215 +130	0 3	-0.89771-0.88242	-0.68953
02/12/2023 02:00 PM	Strasbourg Lille	17.2% 60.2%	22.5%	+675 -224 +625 -225	0 2	-0.39246-0.41885	-0.50667
02/12/2023 12:00 PM	Rennes Toulouse	73.8% 8.9%	17.3%	+156 +201 +145 +195	1 3	-1.11456-1.13075	-2.41811
02/11/2023 04:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Monaco	85.2% 5.0%	9.7%	+200 +135	1 3	-0.90199	-2.99274
02/05/2023 07:45 PM	Nice Marseille	19.8% 57.2%	22.9%	+465 -144 +420 -145	3 1	-1.75175-1.69821	-1.62004
02/05/2023 04:05 PM	Lens Brest	22.8% 51.6%	25.6%	-113 +358 -125 +365	1 1	-1.33716-1.32818	-1.36090
02/05/2023 02:00 PM	Montpellier Strasbourg	33.0% 37.4%	29.6%	+291 +115 +290 +105	0 2	-0.78034-0.76845	-0.98283
02/05/2023 02:00 PM	Angers Lorient	37.6% 33.5%	28.8%	+348 +102 +295 -105	0 0	-1.28096-1.30258	-1.24361
02/04/2023 08:00 PM	Lille Rennes	49.9% 23.9%	26.2%	+224 +145 +210 +135	3 1	-1.19076-1.18127	-0.69497
02/04/2023 06:00 PM	Lyon Troyes	73.6% 9.3%	17.0%	-156 +440 -160 +415	3 1	-0.51691-0.53479	-0.30629
02/04/2023 04:00 PM	Toulouse Paris Saint-Germain	1.5% 93.1%	5.3%	+575 -250	1 2	-0.38632	-0.07120

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.