France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+385
+102

1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-108

Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Strasbourg
Toulouse		73.2%
9.3%		17.4%
+226
+126
+210
+125
2
2		-1.32366-1.30416-1.74703
Rennes
Angers		39.5%
32.0%		28.5%
-168
+497
-155
+410
2
1		-0.48944-0.55036-0.92938
Lens
Marseille		12.2%
68.1%		19.7%
+245
+128
+225
+120
1
0		-1.25569-1.22946-2.10603
Lyon
Montpellier		47.3%
26.2%		26.5%
+105
+275
-110
+270
2
1		-0.73877-0.69589-0.74851
Marseille
Paris Saint-Germain		4.9%
84.3%		10.8%
+661
-235
+625
-245
0
1		-0.38312-0.39116-0.17060
Brest
Nantes		28.8%
43.2%		27.9%
+245
+125
+240
+120
1
4		-0.83317-0.83455-0.83827
Lyon
Rennes		47.6%
25.9%		26.5%
+238
+119
+225
+110
2
3		-0.79875-0.79467-1.34938
Angers
Toulouse		68.7%
12.1%		19.2%
+327
-114
+290
-115
2
3		-0.65281-0.67231-2.11544
Montpellier
Lens		53.0%
21.3%		25.7%
+634
-205
+550
-210
0
1		-0.41603-0.44158-1.54806
Reims
Lorient		45.2%
24.7%		30.1%
+215
+143
+215
+135
0
0		-1.24660-1.23891-1.19991
Lille
Strasbourg		51.7%
22.9%		25.4%
+130
+232
+125
+220
3
0		-0.85357-0.86074-0.66004
Lens
Lille		8.0%
76.7%		15.3%
+176
+180
+170
+155
0
1		-1.01639-0.98714-0.26513
Nantes
Rennes		26.5%
45.5%		28.0%
+610
-193
+550
-200
0
3		-0.43855-0.45463-0.78735
Lorient
Brest		28.0%
44.1%		27.9%
+233
+131
+215
+125
2
1		-1.22170-1.19786-1.27175
Troyes
Nice		16.8%
61.1%		22.1%
+376
-115
+350
-120
2
3		-0.63380-0.65815-0.49251
Strasbourg
Angers		38.3%
33.3%		28.5%
+179
+175
+160
+170
3
2		-1.04126-1.00761-0.96087
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.98838 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.99015 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.53496
-0.54657
-0.54480

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.