France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 21 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
01/15/2023 02:00 PM	Nantes Montpellier	26.2% 45.8%	28.0%	+217 +147 +195 +140	3 0	-1.16806-1.13457	-1.33888
01/15/2023 12:00 PM	Troyes Lille	6.3% 79.8%	14.0%	+660 -205 +620 -225	1 5	-0.41819-0.41977	-0.22607
01/14/2023 08:00 PM	Strasbourg Lyon	18.8% 58.1%	23.0%	+463 -160 +450 -165	2 1	-1.74320-1.75198	-1.66967
01/14/2023 06:00 PM	Lorient Marseille	15.7% 61.7%	22.6%	+650 -217 +675 -260	1 3	-0.39672-0.37541	-0.48347
01/11/2023 08:00 PM	Marseille Troyes	65.9% 12.9%	21.3%	-139 +433 -150 +425	2 0	-0.56040-0.55982	-0.41762
01/11/2023 08:00 PM	Lens Strasbourg	16.9% 59.9%	23.1%	+115 +290 +105 +280	2 2	-1.27422-1.25727	-1.46434
01/11/2023 08:00 PM	Angers Paris Saint-Germain	2.9% 89.8%	7.2%	+1831 -488 +1500 -600	0 2	-0.16646-0.20168	-0.10714
01/11/2023 08:00 PM	Monaco Lorient	48.7% 26.1%	25.2%	-117 +357 -125 +320	2 2	-1.39429-1.40985	-1.37749
01/11/2023 08:00 PM	Montpellier Nice	40.3% 32.1%	27.5%	+350 -110 +330 -115	1 6	-0.65855-0.67368	-1.13494
01/11/2023 06:00 PM	Lyon Nantes	54.5% 21.1%	24.4%	+115 +271 +100 +280	0 0	-1.32501-1.30048	-1.41104
01/11/2023 06:00 PM	Lille Brest	61.0% 17.0%	22.1%	-111 +347 -115 +320	0 0	-1.33808-1.33044	-1.51140
11/13/2022 07:45 PM	Marseille Monaco	38.6% 34.4%	27.0%	+209 +140 +195 +135	3 2	-1.14608-1.13082	-0.95132
11/13/2022 04:05 PM	Lorient Strasbourg	21.4% 52.9%	25.6%	+216 +139 +205 +135	1 1	-1.27107-1.25956	-1.36145
11/13/2022 02:00 PM	Reims Montpellier	31.4% 36.1%	32.5%	+159 +193 +160 +170	1 1	-1.23454-1.26107	-1.12507
11/13/2022 02:00 PM	Troyes Brest	18.0% 57.8%	24.2%	+272 +110 +255 +105	1 2	-0.75854-0.76776	-0.54799
11/13/2022 02:00 PM	Angers Lille	13.3% 67.4%	19.3%	+1031 -325 +900 -330	0 1	-0.28598-0.31437	-0.39421

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.