France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102

1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-108

Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Toulouse
Lille		3.5%
87.2%		9.3%
+384
-130
+360
-140
1
2		-0.58852-0.58848-0.13683
Strasbourg
Montpellier		30.2%
40.8%		29.0%
+194
+157
+165
+165
1
2		-0.96283-1.02223-0.89634
Lyon
Monaco		48.1%
27.4%		24.5%
+178
+162
+165
+155
1
2		-0.98064-0.98602-1.29415
Reims
Toulouse		72.2%
8.6%		19.2%
+196
+153
+200
+135
0
1		-0.94446-0.90604-2.45248
Nantes
Lorient		38.8%
31.5%		29.7%
+215
+153
+220
+135
2
3		-0.94843-0.90372-1.15445
Montpellier
Angers		39.8%
31.7%		28.5%
+196
+151
+180
+140
1
2		-0.93420-0.92576-1.14870
Lille
Marseille		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+250
+122
+240
+115
1
2		-0.81135-0.81340-1.20531
Brest
Paris Saint-Germain		2.8%
90.0%		7.2%
+2816
-1150
+2500
-1400
0
1		-0.10938-0.11800-0.10493
Troyes
Lens		25.8%
45.7%		28.5%
+525
-185
+520
-210
0
1		-0.44943-0.44183-0.78410
Lyon
Lorient		62.7%
15.8%		21.5%
-124
+340
-135
+340
1
3		-1.50490-1.53206-1.84757
Monaco
Nice		42.8%
32.2%		25.0%
+154
+197
+150
+185
1
0		-0.94814-0.96451-0.84959
Rennes
Troyes		58.7%
16.9%		24.4%
-112
+321
-115
+300
1
1		-1.38681-1.37200-1.41239
Lens
Reims		15.2%
60.2%		24.6%
+139
+220
+125
+215
1
1		-1.27336-1.28884-1.40259
Strasbourg
Brest		39.9%
31.6%		28.5%
+195
+162
+180
+150
1
1		-1.22581-1.27379-1.25639
Lille
Montpellier		49.6%
24.1%		26.2%
+102
+283
+100
+270
3
1		-0.72359-0.74381-0.70041
Paris Saint-Germain
Nantes		86.3%
4.1%		9.7%
-400
+1072
-425
+1000
3
0		-0.24994-0.26196-0.14787
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.25913 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.24289 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.69497
0.56416
0.54792

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.