France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 21 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
11/12/2022 08:00 PM	Toulouse Rennes	6.5% 78.9%	14.6%	+460 -160 +470 -180	1 2	-0.51116-0.49143	-0.23737
11/11/2022 08:00 PM	Nice Lyon	14.5% 66.4%	19.0%	+398 -128 +370 -140	1 1	-1.36979-1.41215	-1.65926
11/06/2022 07:45 PM	Lyon Marseille	39.8% 32.3%	27.9%	+264 +112 +260 +105	0 1	-0.77457-0.76787	-1.13097
11/06/2022 04:05 PM	Rennes Lille	18.1% 58.5%	23.4%	+283 +110 +260 +105	1 1	-1.28576-1.30280	-1.45235
11/06/2022 02:00 PM	Brest Nice	30.9% 42.5%	26.5%	+357 -115 +340 -125	0 1	-0.64798-0.63951	-0.85475
11/06/2022 02:00 PM	Monaco Toulouse	77.5% 8.2%	14.3%	+122 +225 +110 +220	2 0	-0.81656-0.79248	-0.25506
11/06/2022 02:00 PM	Nantes Reims	24.6% 45.3%	30.0%	+253 +120 +240 +115	0 1	-0.80937-0.81744	-0.79147
11/06/2022 12:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Lorient	88.7% 3.1%	8.1%	-280 +800 -300 +765	2 1	-0.32881-0.33724	-0.11991
11/05/2022 08:00 PM	Lens Angers	21.5% 53.8%	24.6%	-152 +484 -160 +435	2 1	-0.52845-0.53649	-1.53609
10/23/2022 06:45 PM	Monaco Lille	18.8% 59.7%	21.4%	+170 +162 +180 +145	3 4	-0.98313-0.94585	-0.51507
10/23/2022 03:05 PM	Nantes Nice	33.9% 38.3%	27.8%	+286 +111 +295 +100	1 1	-1.24420-1.25931	-1.28039
10/23/2022 01:00 PM	Lorient Troyes	43.9% 26.9%	29.2%	+192 +160 +190 +140	2 2	-1.24894-1.28844	-1.23158
10/23/2022 01:00 PM	Strasbourg Toulouse	73.2% 9.3%	17.4%	+226 +126 +210 +125	2 2	-1.32366-1.30416	-1.74703
10/23/2022 11:00 AM	Rennes Angers	39.5% 32.0%	28.5%	-168 +497 -155 +410	2 1	-0.48944-0.55036	-0.92938
10/22/2022 07:00 PM	Lens Marseille	12.2% 68.1%	19.7%	+245 +128 +225 +120	1 0	-1.25569-1.22946	-2.10603
10/22/2022 03:00 PM	Lyon Montpellier	47.3% 26.2%	26.5%	+105 +275 -110 +270	2 1	-0.73877-0.69589	-0.74851

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.