France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 21 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
10/16/2022 06:45 PM	Marseille Paris Saint-Germain	4.9% 84.3%	10.8%	+661 -235 +625 -245	0 1	-0.38312-0.39116	-0.17060
10/16/2022 01:00 PM	Brest Nantes	28.8% 43.2%	27.9%	+245 +125 +240 +120	1 4	-0.83317-0.83455	-0.83827
10/16/2022 01:00 PM	Lyon Rennes	47.6% 25.9%	26.5%	+238 +119 +225 +110	2 3	-0.79875-0.79467	-1.34938
10/16/2022 11:00 AM	Angers Toulouse	68.7% 12.1%	19.2%	+327 -114 +290 -115	2 3	-0.65281-0.67231	-2.11544
10/15/2022 07:00 PM	Montpellier Lens	53.0% 21.3%	25.7%	+634 -205 +550 -210	0 1	-0.41603-0.44158	-1.54806
10/15/2022 03:00 PM	Reims Lorient	45.2% 24.7%	30.1%	+215 +143 +215 +135	0 0	-1.24660-1.23891	-1.19991
10/14/2022 07:00 PM	Lille Strasbourg	51.7% 22.9%	25.4%	+130 +232 +125 +220	3 0	-0.85357-0.86074	-0.66004
10/09/2022 06:45 PM	Lens Lille	8.0% 76.7%	15.3%	+176 +180 +170 +155	0 1	-1.01639-0.98714	-0.26513
10/09/2022 03:05 PM	Nantes Rennes	26.5% 45.5%	28.0%	+610 -193 +550 -200	0 3	-0.43855-0.45463	-0.78735
10/09/2022 01:00 PM	Lorient Brest	28.0% 44.1%	27.9%	+233 +131 +215 +125	2 1	-1.22170-1.19786	-1.27175
10/09/2022 01:00 PM	Troyes Nice	16.8% 61.1%	22.1%	+376 -115 +350 -120	2 3	-0.63380-0.65815	-0.49251
10/09/2022 01:00 PM	Strasbourg Angers	38.3% 33.3%	28.5%	+179 +175 +160 +170	3 2	-1.04126-1.00761	-0.96087
10/09/2022 11:00 AM	Monaco Montpellier	33.3% 39.5%	27.2%	-114 +310 -105 +255	2 0	-0.64892-0.72128	-1.10027
10/08/2022 07:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Reims	81.0% 5.6%	13.3%	-259 +805 -300 +725	0 0	-1.74200-1.77137	-2.01590
10/07/2022 07:00 PM	Toulouse Lyon	3.7% 86.9%	9.4%	+582 -220 +490 -205	1 1	-1.68718-1.60899	-2.36000
10/02/2022 06:45 PM	Lyon Lens	69.2% 12.1%	18.7%	+207 +135 +205 +125	0 1	-0.87717-0.85982	-2.10908

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.