France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102

1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-108

Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Angers
Lyon		14.6%
65.6%		19.8%
+821
-308
+800
-335
0
5		-0.30900-0.31069-0.42222
Nice
Lille		13.2%
68.3%		18.5%
+285
+113
+290
+100
2
1		-1.36289-1.41026-2.02480
Brest
Rennes		23.8%
49.9%		26.3%
+565
-173
+550
-200
1
3		-0.46494-0.45463-0.69559
Lorient
Lens		37.5%
32.7%		29.7%
+412
-130
+420
-140
2
5		-0.58996-0.58390-1.11706
Paris Saint-Germain
Toulouse		92.7%
1.7%		5.6%
-362
+950
-425
+900
3
0		-0.26356-0.26046-0.07535
Troyes
Monaco		11.7%
70.2%		18.1%
+900
-290
+850
-325
4
2		-2.31993-2.30179-2.14234
Nantes
Strasbourg		27.6%
44.3%		28.0%
+277
+115
+280
+100
1
1		-1.27687-1.30048-1.27236
Reims
Angers		39.8%
29.8%		30.4%
+140
+231
+135
+220
4
2		-0.88914-0.90372-0.92176
Monaco
Paris Saint-Germain		3.7%
88.3%		8.0%
+1139
-420
+1050
-500
1
1		-2.03638-2.09581-2.52898
Lyon
Reims		44.3%
26.7%		29.0%
-117
+322
-125
+315
1
1		-1.43083-1.41256-1.23867
Montpellier
Brest		41.4%
30.1%		28.5%
+317
-101
+290
-110
7
0		-1.44185-1.41022-0.88158
Marseille
Nice		48.3%
26.1%		25.6%
+160
+191
+145
+185
3
0		-0.97101-0.94788-0.72780
Angers
Troyes		51.6%
22.4%		26.0%
+244
+140
+220
+130
1
3		-0.88220-0.88201-1.49647
Toulouse
Nantes		8.3%
75.0%		16.7%
+210
+147
+205
+140
1
3		-0.92135-0.92637-0.28708
Rennes
Lens		52.6%
21.5%		25.9%
+230
+132
+215
+125
1
2		-0.85411-0.86140-1.53879
Paris Saint-Germain
Lille		73.8%
10.1%		16.1%
-269
+709
-300
+700
7
1		-0.33964-0.33986-0.30365
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.25913 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.24289 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.69497
0.56416
0.54792

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.