France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 21 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
10/02/2022 03:05 PM	Nantes Monaco	26.1% 48.8%	25.2%	+654 -230 +525 -215	1 4	-0.38637-0.43155	-0.71808
10/02/2022 01:00 PM	Montpellier Toulouse	74.0% 8.8%	17.2%	+281 -102 +255 +100	2 4	-0.70684-0.74381	-2.42951
10/02/2022 01:00 PM	Reims Troyes	57.7% 15.9%	26.4%	+180 +178 +175 +165	2 2	-1.23467-1.21527	-1.33109
10/02/2022 11:00 AM	Lille Lorient	64.6% 14.4%	21.0%	+135 +215 +145 +175	1 2	-1.17025-1.06369	-1.94072
10/01/2022 07:00 PM	Nice Paris Saint-Germain	2.8% 90.4%	6.8%	+1341 -447 +1050 -450	1 2	-0.22520-0.24953	-0.10105
10/01/2022 03:00 PM	Rennes Strasbourg	32.7% 37.7%	29.6%	+124 +237 +115 +230	3 1	-0.83103-0.81792	-1.11752
09/30/2022 07:00 PM	Marseille Angers	47.6% 25.9%	26.5%	-118 +350 -135 +350	3 0	-0.63354-0.60605	-0.74227
09/18/2022 06:45 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Lyon	76.2% 9.1%	14.8%	-172 +450 -195 +425	1 0	-0.46296-0.46420	-0.27244
09/18/2022 03:05 PM	Lens Nantes	20.1% 54.7%	25.1%	+102 +288 +105 +260	0 0	-1.33907-1.30280	-1.38099
09/18/2022 01:00 PM	Rennes Marseille	25.6% 46.8%	27.6%	+277 +112 +260 +105	1 1	-1.29554-1.30280	-1.28725
09/18/2022 01:00 PM	Angers Nice	32.6% 40.8%	26.6%	+437 -141 +430 -155	1 0	-1.70128-1.71925	-1.12083
09/18/2022 11:00 AM	Monaco Reims	31.4% 39.8%	28.8%	+123 +230 +120 +215	3 0	-0.82711-0.84077	-1.15897
09/17/2022 07:00 PM	Toulouse Lille	3.5% 87.2%	9.3%	+384 -130 +360 -140	1 2	-0.58852-0.58848	-0.13683
09/17/2022 03:00 PM	Strasbourg Montpellier	30.2% 40.8%	29.0%	+194 +157 +165 +165	1 2	-0.96283-1.02223	-0.89634
09/11/2022 06:45 PM	Lyon Monaco	48.1% 27.4%	24.5%	+178 +162 +165 +155	1 2	-0.98064-0.98602	-1.29415
09/11/2022 01:00 PM	Reims Toulouse	72.2% 8.6%	19.2%	+196 +153 +200 +135	0 1	-0.94446-0.90604	-2.45248

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.