France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102

1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-108

Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Monaco
Strasbourg		34.9%
38.0%		27.1%
+225
+161
+205
+150
2
1		-1.17623-1.15471-1.05228
Nice
Reims		23.8%
49.1%		27.0%
-104
+305
-115
+300
3
2		-0.69207-0.67598-1.43397
Metz
Paris Saint-Germain		2.9%
89.3%		7.8%
+1771
-740
+1400
-750
0
5		-0.15207-0.17302-0.11337
Saint-Etienne
Nantes		27.8%
44.8%		27.3%
+186
+151
+190
+140
1
1		-1.31651-1.28844-1.29751
Strasbourg
Marseille		24.6%
48.6%		26.8%
+273
+124
+255
+125
0
4		-0.82387-0.82271-0.72251
Troyes
Lorient		20.9%
52.4%		26.7%
+229
+125
+225
+120
1
1		-1.31082-1.28913-1.32144
Rennes
Lille		18.1%
58.5%		23.4%
-100
+277
-110
+280
2
2		-1.38434-1.38390-1.45235
Monaco
Lens		56.3%
20.8%		22.9%
+115
+234
+110
+220
2
2		-1.38553-1.38557-1.47447
Bordeaux
Brest		40.6%
31.5%		27.9%
+371
-150
+425
-170
4
2		-1.57624-1.68837-0.90172
Montpellier
Angers		39.8%
31.7%		28.5%
+257
+110
+250
+105
0
2		-0.76464-0.76070-1.14870
Lens
Troyes		37.2%
32.3%		30.5%
+105
+290
+100
+260
3
1		-0.73222-0.74360-0.98824
Reims
Saint-Etienne		42.8%
27.4%		29.8%
+295
+104
+290
-105
2
1		-1.39388-1.41005-0.84835
Marseille
Rennes		38.2%
32.1%		29.6%
+305
-104
+335
-125
0
2		-0.69341-0.63858-1.13485
Lille
Nice		60.3%
18.1%		21.5%
+395
-135
+350
-145
3
1		-1.60839-1.55495-0.50541
Paris Saint-Germain
Montpellier		83.6%
5.1%		11.3%
-315
+799
-350
+750
4
0		-0.29592-0.30286-0.17902
Brest
Monaco		23.2%
53.4%		23.4%
+1205
-445
+1025
-425
2
4		-0.23614-0.26113-0.62798
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.