France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102

1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-108

Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Angers
Metz		32.7%
38.2%		29.0%
+219
+135
+220
+125
0
1		-0.87108-0.84884-0.96158
Nantes
Lyon		15.7%
62.9%		21.4%
+526
-195
+515
-225
2
3		-0.42622-0.41746-0.46416
Lorient
Bordeaux		21.2%
53.8%		25.0%
+205
+148
+190
+140
0
0		-1.26532-1.28844-1.38741
Rennes
Nantes		37.0%
33.0%		30.0%
-175
+500
-190
+455
1
2		-1.80302-1.76521-1.10736
Saint-Etienne
Nice		29.9%
44.1%		26.0%
+600
-189
+550
-200
2
4		-0.44307-0.45463-0.81814
Troyes
Paris Saint-Germain		1.9%
91.8%		6.2%
+1605
-575
+1600
-700
2
2		-2.22350-2.19024-2.77419
Marseille
Lorient		53.4%
21.0%		25.6%
+107
+284
+100
+270
3
0		-0.74786-0.73643-0.62691
Lens
Reims		15.2%
60.2%		24.6%
+129
+247
+115
+240
2
1		-0.84316-0.81744-1.88263
Bordeaux
Angers		38.9%
33.2%		27.9%
+203
+150
+200
+135
1
4		-0.93110-0.90604-1.10319
Lyon
Metz		57.3%
19.0%		23.6%
-302
+800
-265
+650
2
3		-2.21935-2.06357-1.65842
Strasbourg
Brest		39.9%
31.6%		28.5%
-102
+295
+100
+325
1
0		-0.70846-0.69511-0.91879
Monaco
Lille		18.8%
59.7%		21.4%
+106
+272
-105
+275
2
1		-0.74410-0.71701-1.66903
Lyon
Marseille		39.8%
32.3%		27.9%
+207
+143
+195
+135
3
0		-1.13659-1.13082-0.92130
Nice
Bordeaux		26.4%
48.5%		25.1%
+126
+235
+120
+260
1
0		-0.83471-0.81040-1.33025
Metz
Montpellier		23.9%
48.6%		27.4%
+364
-122
+350
-130
2
2		-1.40125-1.37444-1.29288
Angers
Monaco		24.7%
51.6%		23.7%
+850
-300
+825
-285
0
2		-0.32410-0.35187-0.66132
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.