France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 21 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
08/31/2022 07:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Toulouse	92.7% 1.7%	5.6%	-362 +950 -425 +900	3 0	-0.26356-0.26046	-0.07535
08/31/2022 05:00 PM	Troyes Monaco	11.7% 70.2%	18.1%	+900 -290 +850 -325	4 2	-2.31993-2.30179	-2.14234
08/31/2022 05:00 PM	Nantes Strasbourg	27.6% 44.3%	28.0%	+277 +115 +280 +100	1 1	-1.27687-1.30048	-1.27236
08/31/2022 05:00 PM	Reims Angers	39.8% 29.8%	30.4%	+140 +231 +135 +220	4 2	-0.88914-0.90372	-0.92176
08/28/2022 06:45 PM	Monaco Paris Saint-Germain	3.7% 88.3%	8.0%	+1139 -420 +1050 -500	1 1	-2.03638-2.09581	-2.52898
08/28/2022 03:05 PM	Lyon Reims	44.3% 26.7%	29.0%	-117 +322 -125 +315	1 1	-1.43083-1.41256	-1.23867
08/28/2022 01:00 PM	Montpellier Brest	41.4% 30.1%	28.5%	+317 -101 +290 -110	7 0	-1.44185-1.41022	-0.88158
08/28/2022 01:00 PM	Marseille Nice	48.3% 26.1%	25.6%	+160 +191 +145 +185	3 0	-0.97101-0.94788	-0.72780
08/28/2022 01:00 PM	Angers Troyes	51.6% 22.4%	26.0%	+244 +140 +220 +130	1 3	-0.88220-0.88201	-1.49647
08/28/2022 11:00 AM	Toulouse Nantes	8.3% 75.0%	16.7%	+210 +147 +205 +140	1 3	-0.92135-0.92637	-0.28708
08/27/2022 07:00 PM	Rennes Lens	52.6% 21.5%	25.9%	+230 +132 +215 +125	1 2	-0.85411-0.86140	-1.53879
08/21/2022 06:45 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Lille	73.8% 10.1%	16.1%	-269 +709 -300 +700	7 1	-0.33964-0.33986	-0.30365
08/21/2022 01:00 PM	Lorient Toulouse	61.8% 15.4%	22.8%	+367 -115 +315 -115	2 2	-1.32742-1.34335	-1.47766
08/21/2022 01:00 PM	Brest Angers	30.7% 41.9%	27.4%	+215 +154 +205 +135	3 1	-1.15528-1.16575	-1.18234
08/21/2022 11:00 AM	Reims Strasbourg	32.9% 34.8%	32.3%	+420 -126 +400 -135	1 1	-1.32426-1.33184	-1.13131
08/20/2022 07:00 PM	Nantes Marseille	20.9% 53.5%	25.5%	+450 -147 +450 -165	1 2	-0.53960-0.52101	-0.62459

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.