France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102

1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-108

Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Montpellier
Lens		53.0%
21.3%		25.7%
+723
-200
+600
-170
0
2		-0.41580-0.46238-1.54806
Lyon
Brest		59.0%
18.6%		22.4%
-130
+355
-130
+325
1
2		-1.52836-1.49620-1.68147
Paris Saint-Germain
Angers		87.6%
3.7%		8.7%
-198
+575
-220
+550
3
0		-0.42535-0.42528-0.13243
Lille
Reims		46.4%
24.7%		28.9%
+175
+202
+165
+225
1
2		-1.11841-1.19686-1.39812
Nice
Monaco		24.8%
52.2%		23.0%
+383
-120
+375
-130
0
1		-0.62166-0.61906-0.65003
Metz
Lorient		35.7%
33.8%		30.5%
+600
-169
+580
-190
0
1		-0.47971-0.47377-1.08506
Saint-Etienne
Bordeaux		23.7%
51.1%		25.1%
+210
+141
+200
+140
2
2		-1.28392-1.25632-1.38059
Marseille
Paris Saint-Germain		4.9%
84.3%		10.8%
+634
-236
+575
-250
1
2		-0.37680-0.38632-0.17060
Bordeaux
Lyon		19.1%
58.3%		22.6%
+740
-250
+675
-265
1
6		-0.35152-0.37004-0.53916
Strasbourg
Troyes		57.8%
17.7%		24.4%
+110
+322
+105
+285
1
1		-1.20996-1.24327-1.40915
Angers
Nantes		30.4%
41.5%		28.2%
+319
+105
+310
+100
1
1		-1.24414-1.22895-1.26737
Reims
Montpellier		31.4%
36.1%		32.5%
+232
+140
+235
+130
0
0		-1.21885-1.19690-1.12507
Lorient
Nice		26.9%
47.1%		26.0%
+485
-154
+400
-140
1
2		-0.51842-0.58780-0.75222
Lens
Lille		8.0%
76.7%		15.3%
+347
-106
+290
-105
2
1		-1.51951-1.41005-2.52548
Brest
Saint-Etienne		33.3%
38.6%		28.1%
+262
+125
+260
+110
1
2		-0.83170-0.79308-0.95143
Monaco
Rennes		33.6%
39.2%		27.2%
+265
+111
+240
+105
3
2		-1.30236-1.27465-1.09195
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.