France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 21 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/11/2022 05:00 PM	Saint-Etienne Nice	29.9% 44.1%	26.0%	+600 -189 +550 -200	2 4	-0.44307-0.45463	-0.81814
05/08/2022 06:45 PM	Troyes Paris Saint-Germain	1.9% 91.8%	6.2%	+1605 -575 +1600 -700	2 2	-2.22350-2.19024	-2.77419
05/08/2022 03:05 PM	Marseille Lorient	53.4% 21.0%	25.6%	+107 +284 +100 +270	3 0	-0.74786-0.73643	-0.62691
05/08/2022 01:00 PM	Lens Reims	15.2% 60.2%	24.6%	+129 +247 +115 +240	2 1	-0.84316-0.81744	-1.88263
05/08/2022 01:00 PM	Bordeaux Angers	38.9% 33.2%	27.9%	+203 +150 +200 +135	1 4	-0.93110-0.90604	-1.10319
05/08/2022 11:00 AM	Lyon Metz	57.3% 19.0%	23.6%	-302 +800 -265 +650	2 3	-2.21935-2.06357	-1.65842
05/07/2022 03:00 PM	Strasbourg Brest	39.9% 31.6%	28.5%	-102 +295 +100 +325	1 0	-0.70846-0.69511	-0.91879
05/06/2022 07:00 PM	Monaco Lille	18.8% 59.7%	21.4%	+106 +272 -105 +275	2 1	-0.74410-0.71701	-1.66903
05/01/2022 06:45 PM	Lyon Marseille	39.8% 32.3%	27.9%	+207 +143 +195 +135	3 0	-1.13659-1.13082	-0.92130
05/01/2022 03:05 PM	Nice Bordeaux	26.4% 48.5%	25.1%	+126 +235 +120 +260	1 0	-0.83471-0.81040	-1.33025
05/01/2022 01:00 PM	Metz Montpellier	23.9% 48.6%	27.4%	+364 -122 +350 -130	2 2	-1.40125-1.37444	-1.29288
05/01/2022 01:00 PM	Angers Monaco	24.7% 51.6%	23.7%	+850 -300 +825 -285	0 2	-0.32410-0.35187	-0.66132
05/01/2022 01:00 PM	Reims Lorient	45.2% 24.7%	30.1%	+274 +122 +250 +120	2 1	-1.33972-1.30420	-0.79423
05/01/2022 11:00 AM	Lille Troyes	74.8% 8.5%	16.6%	+126 +256 +115 +265	0 3	-1.28968-1.34504	-2.46053
04/30/2022 07:00 PM	Saint-Etienne Rennes	22.9% 51.5%	25.6%	+940 -311 +950 -375	0 2	-0.29812-0.28650	-0.66388
04/30/2022 03:00 PM	Nantes Lens	46.1% 26.2%	27.7%	+450 -149 +460 -175	2 2	-1.44958-1.48673	-1.28305

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.