France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102

1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-108

Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Montpellier
Marseille		25.8%
46.5%		27.6%
+621
-205
+580
-220
0
2		-0.41502-0.42534-0.76507
Lyon
Strasbourg		49.3%
24.9%		25.7%
+199
+156
+195
+145
1
1		-1.23860-1.24289-1.35693
Nice
Lens		45.7%
28.2%		26.1%
+218
+151
+195
+150
0
3		-0.94063-0.96192-1.26716
Troyes
Monaco		11.7%
70.2%		18.1%
+850
-269
+775
-280
1
2		-0.34159-0.35718-0.35404
Lille
Angers		59.5%
18.1%		22.4%
+115
+291
+115
+295
1
1		-1.21325-1.17144-1.49669
Nantes
Brest		34.8%
35.7%		29.6%
+180
+180
+175
+170
1
1		-1.20471-1.19759-1.21882
Metz
Bordeaux		25.1%
48.0%		26.9%
+346
-103
+335
-110
1
3		-0.69565-0.69752-0.73309
Rennes
Reims		29.2%
38.9%		31.9%
-119
+400
-130
+400
3
2		-0.63013-0.62021-1.23117
Saint-Etienne
Lorient		34.6%
36.2%		29.1%
+297
+118
+280
+115
2
6		-0.80026-0.81507-1.01481
Lorient
Paris Saint-Germain		2.5%
90.6%		6.9%
+1575
-560
+1400
-575
1
5		-0.19400-0.21089-0.09923
Angers
Lyon		14.6%
65.6%		19.8%
+797
-253
+700
-255
2
3		-0.35706-0.37917-0.42222
Reims
Troyes		57.7%
15.9%		26.4%
+224
+165
+215
+150
0
1		-0.98940-0.96582-1.83841
Brest
Montpellier		23.6%
50.2%		26.2%
+276
+113
+255
+110
2
1		-1.34140-1.31763-1.44545
Monaco
Metz		42.9%
30.5%		26.6%
-197
+700
-200
+600
2
1		-0.43064-0.45751-0.84695
Lens
Strasbourg		16.9%
59.9%		23.1%
+282
+115
+240
+120
0
1		-0.78711-0.83884-0.51211
Bordeaux
Lille		17.4%
60.5%		22.1%
+680
-196
+725
-235
0
0		-1.51663-1.59919-1.50955
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.