France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102

1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-108

Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rennes
Nice		40.0%
32.4%		27.6%
+165
+190
+150
+190
1
1		-1.22312-1.24067-1.28895
Nice
Marseille		19.8%
57.2%		22.9%
+335
-107
+315
-110
1
2		-0.68798-0.69587-0.55785
Lyon
Reims		44.3%
26.7%		29.0%
-113
+330
-120
+335
0
0		-1.36090-1.33268-1.23867
Metz
Rennes		24.1%
48.3%		27.5%
+1240
-356
+1100
-360
1
6		-0.27349-0.29336-0.72677
Strasbourg
Lorient		44.2%
27.7%		28.1%
+125
+260
+120
+240
0
0		-1.21029-1.24434-1.27015
Montpellier
Bordeaux		32.9%
38.1%		29.0%
+190
+155
+185
+140
2
0		-1.08714-1.09919-1.11054
Brest
Angers		30.7%
41.9%		27.4%
+245
+145
+245
+130
0
1		-0.91649-0.88409-0.87017
Paris Saint-Germain
Monaco		85.2%
5.0%		9.7%
-102
+285
-110
+285
0
3		-1.37555-1.39707-2.99274
Lille
Nantes		56.7%
19.3%		24.0%
+200
+170
+195
+175
1
0		-1.12458-1.12258-0.56789
Troyes
Saint-Etienne		18.8%
56.8%		24.4%
+375
-110
+360
-120
1
1		-1.26227-1.30015-1.40940
Marseille
Brest		49.4%
24.4%		26.2%
+102
+314
+100
+300
4
1		-0.72278-0.74051-0.70548
Rennes
Lyon		19.8%
56.4%		23.8%
+274
+107
+260
+105
4
2		-1.33960-1.33094-1.62141
Monaco
Strasbourg		34.9%
38.0%		27.1%
+197
+176
+180
+170
0
1		-1.02862-1.03724-0.96874
Lens
Metz		22.2%
51.4%		26.4%
-130
+420
-135
+380
0
0		-1.35743-1.36004-1.33222
Reims
Angers		39.8%
29.8%		30.4%
+262
+148
+250
+135
1
0		-1.30704-1.30177-0.92176
Bordeaux
Paris Saint-Germain		3.6%
87.8%		8.5%
+2200
-729
+1700
-760
0
3		-0.14829-0.17277-0.12958
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.