France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102

1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-108

Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nantes
Troyes		52.4%
20.9%		26.6%
+158
+216
+150
+200
0
1		-1.16700-1.14816-1.56308
Nice
Montpellier		25.2%
49.3%		25.5%
+125
+240
+115
+240
0
0		-1.29916-1.28627-1.36743
Saint-Etienne
Lille		11.8%
70.0%		18.2%
+421
-135

0
0		-1.38354-1.70205
Monaco
Marseille		27.1%
47.7%		25.1%
+187
+162
+190
+155
1
0		-1.07825-1.10842-1.30398
Angers
Rennes		25.2%
48.3%		26.5%
+809
-228
+775
-250
0
2		-0.38594-0.38602-0.72853
Strasbourg
Reims		28.3%
40.6%		31.0%
+124
+302
+125
+265
1
1		-1.14015-1.14907-1.17022
Montpellier
Nantes		37.3%
32.8%		29.9%
+338
+101
+310
-105
0
2		-0.71959-0.71803-1.11514
Troyes
Bordeaux		12.9%
66.4%		20.6%
+311
+105
+275
+110
2
0		-1.43418-1.36227-2.04469
Metz
Saint-Etienne		33.4%
37.4%		29.1%
+415
-109
+370
-115
0
1		-0.67976-0.67515-0.98278
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-141
+405
-145
+365
0
1		-1.64201-1.58641-3.30771
Brest
Lens		42.7%
29.3%		28.0%
+550
-171
+510
-165
1
0		-1.88381-1.83835-0.85036
Lyon
Lorient		62.7%
15.8%		21.5%
-126
+445
-125
+335
4
1		-0.58501-0.63858-0.46604
Lille
Lyon		34.6%
37.6%		27.8%
+378
-122
+350
-125
1
0		-1.58275-1.55452-1.06239
Marseille
Troyes		65.9%
12.9%		21.3%
-121
+390
-140
+400
1
1		-1.33983-1.37054-1.54867
Nantes
Metz		33.7%
35.8%		30.5%
+173
+213
+175
+180
0
0		-1.11307-1.17386-1.18905
Lorient
Brest		28.0%
44.1%		27.9%
+263
+123
+275
+105
1
0		-1.31230-1.37338-1.27175
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.