France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102

1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-108

Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼+100

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lens
Angers		21.5%
53.8%		24.6%
+135
+238
+135
+215
2
1		-0.87500-0.90387-1.53609
Reims
Monaco		32.2%
39.0%		28.8%
+732
-219
+700
-225
2
1		-2.14021-2.13073-1.13283
Saint-Etienne
Paris Saint-Germain		2.7%
90.5%		6.8%
+1806
-632
+1800
-750
1
3		-0.17533-0.17326-0.10019
Nice
Strasbourg		26.7%
47.7%		25.6%
+310
+107
+255
+110
0
0		-1.24466-1.27447-1.36234
Rennes
Montpellier		31.2%
39.1%		29.7%
-126
+415
-125
+345
4
2		-0.59232-0.64061-1.16533
Monaco
Bordeaux		34.8%
38.6%		26.6%
-151
+465
-165
+445
1
1		-1.44248-1.45981-1.32249
Strasbourg
Saint-Etienne		41.4%
30.6%		27.9%
+145
+225
+135
+210
2
2		-1.22533-1.24382-1.27572
Troyes
Rennes		12.5%
66.2%		21.2%
+1150
-280
+980
-315
1
4		-0.31267-0.32605-0.41187
Brest
Reims		22.2%
49.7%		28.1%
+244
+145
+225
+135
1
1		-1.16142-1.19683-1.27050
Montpellier
Lorient		45.7%
26.3%		28.0%
+219
+150
+220
+130
1
0		-1.18097-1.21224-0.78336
Angers
Nice		32.6%
40.8%		26.6%
+430
-120
+450
-145
0
1		-0.62579-0.57467-0.89681
Paris Saint-Germain
Nantes		86.3%
4.1%		9.7%
-256
+965
-235
+800
1
3		-2.35020-2.20030-3.20226
Lyon
Lens		69.2%
12.1%		18.7%
+132
+221
+130
+205
1
1		-1.30107-1.28953-1.67804
Metz
Lille		12.8%
67.1%		20.1%
+645
-175
+665
-215
0
0		-1.41981-1.47596-1.60435
Marseille
Metz		44.6%
28.1%		27.3%
-143
+456
-145
+425
2
1		-0.55149-0.57235-0.80831
Bordeaux
Lens		48.3%
26.9%		24.8%
+483
-167
+475
-190
2
3		-0.48828-0.46828-1.31416
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.