France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102

1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-105

Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Reims
Nantes		36.3%
31.6%		32.1%
+274
+125
+255
+125
0
1		-0.83785-0.86353-1.15315
Troyes
Brest		23.5%
53.0%		23.6%
+325
-101
+310
-105
1
5		-0.70514-0.71803-0.63544
Strasbourg
Angers		37.5%
34.0%		28.4%
+145
+225
+130
+220
1
0		-0.91569-0.88201-0.98059
Lorient
Monaco		25.6%
52.5%		21.9%
+806
-264
+670
-260
0
0		-1.69478-1.66829-1.51722
Nice
Lyon		21.9%
60.3%		17.7%
+365
-115
+340
-125
0
2		-0.63203-0.63609-0.50519
Lille
Montpellier		46.0%
28.0%		26.0%
+146
+211
+130
+210
1
0		-0.91792-0.88312-0.77544
Rennes
Paris Saint-Germain		8.5%
85.2%		6.4%
+519
-178
+500
-200
0
1		-0.46258-0.45495-0.16061
Paris Saint-Germain
Lille		66.3%
17.2%		16.5%
-150
+470
-170
+450
5
1		-0.52997-0.50569-0.41125
Brest
Rennes		28.0%
46.7%		25.3%
+600
-201
+580
-220
0
2		-0.43144-0.42534-0.76104
Metz
Troyes		46.1%
26.9%		27.0%
+260
+127
+265
+120
0
0		-1.21076-1.18123-1.30833
Nantes
Strasbourg		30.7%
42.7%		26.6%
+330
-105
+360
-125
0
1		-0.68041-0.63726-0.85067
Bordeaux
Reims		31.4%
40.2%		28.4%
+325
-107
+290
+100
0
5		-0.68943-0.74244-0.91190
Lens
Lorient		29.6%
44.0%		26.5%
+130
+240
+120
+245
0
2		-1.24400-1.28471-0.82155
Lyon
Monaco		45.6%
31.3%		23.1%
+269
+110
+255
+110
0
2		-0.76288-0.78460-1.16021
Montpellier
Saint-Etienne		41.9%
32.0%		26.2%
+220
+146
+200
+145
1
3		-0.92196-0.94410-1.14047
Angers
Marseille		25.1%
51.6%		23.3%
+675
-200
+630
-200
2
5		-0.43871-0.45479-0.66202
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.