France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102

1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-105

Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Marseille
Lyon		29.4%
45.9%		24.8%
+155
+198
+160
+190
1
2		-1.12673-1.11541-0.77966
Saint-Etienne
Angers		32.5%
42.3%		25.2%
+270
+120
+255
+120
1
0		-1.33313-1.30545-1.12347
Reims
Paris Saint-Germain		8.2%
77.6%		14.2%
+1400
-400
+1450
-500
0
4		-0.23785-0.23274-0.25314
Monaco
Montpellier		35.3%
39.7%		25.0%
-110
+321
-115
+335
2
3		-1.46859-1.51941-0.92400
Lorient
Nantes		28.7%
44.9%		26.4%
+276
+125
+270
+120
2
4		-0.83358-0.83979-0.80127
Strasbourg
Bordeaux		33.9%
39.9%		26.3%
-125
+360
-125
+335
3
4		-1.54877-1.51118-0.91947
Troyes
Angers		22.6%
54.3%		23.1%
+312
+110
+315
+105
1
2		-0.76819-0.76791-0.61000
Nice
Metz		35.1%
39.1%		25.8%
-130
+430
-155
+450
2
0		-0.59442-0.54606-1.04674
Marseille
Lens		54.8%
22.4%		22.8%
+190
+150
+190
+145
2
0		-1.09880-1.11073-0.60152
Lille
Brest		55.1%
23.1%		21.8%
+130
+232
+125
+225
0
2		-1.22550-1.22806-1.46616
Saint-Etienne
Lyon		19.9%
61.3%		18.8%
+792
-235
+725
-280
0
1		-0.34864-0.35277-0.48947
Troyes
Montpellier		18.2%
59.7%		22.0%
+395
-135
+380
-135
1
0		-1.62862-1.61355-1.70199
Lorient
Lille		16.9%
64.3%		18.8%
+600
-185
+550
-195
1
3		-0.45904-0.46291-0.44167
Lille
Marseille		41.3%
32.6%		26.1%
+245
+125
+230
+125
1
1		-1.25180-1.24316-1.34224
Lyon
Troyes		66.2%
15.6%		18.2%
-125
+360
-125
+350
1
0		-0.61995-0.63824-0.41235
Montpellier
Strasbourg		34.8%
38.0%		27.2%
+295
+100
+285
-110
1
3		-0.72741-0.69904-0.96748
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.